EurAnalysis

you have a window of 3hrs to catch the real move during ny session, normally. we've had that today. i wouldn't expect it to have moves like that throughout the entire session.

[quote=jarhead;5727277] Well...with respect Jar... I don't see you give one example of a president, or any head of state, to turn a poor economic and labor situation into a good one.

All i'm saying is heads of state actually have little control over how the economy does. And i've waited for any single person to provide any evidence of what power a president has over a countries economy.

last i checked, a president has no legislative ability other than to veto, and although he prepares the budget, it is the office of management and budget that REALLY does this, and this works jointly for the congressional budget office to determine what the budget is to be. Finally, it takes congressional approval to pass the budget

So he actually doesn't even really prepare it, nor decide if said budget is acceptable.

In other words, a president of the united states has almost no power of his own with regard to anything that could influence economic conditions in the united states.

I really don't know why anyone ever blames any president for this. As I understand high school civics, it would be impossible for a president to help OR hurt an economy, short of somehow engaging in a war, or establishing the end of a war to a degree that military spending to conduct such war or the cutbacks that withdrawing from a war will cause.

So, unless a war determines the economic viability of the united states (as it did play a significant role in WWII...) I see it as an impossibility for a president to affect the american economy.

He can't pass laws. he doens't really make the budget, he definately doesn't approve it. he doesn't have control over whether corporations OR other government entities create jobs or not, and we don't even have a draft anymore, so he can't force employment via conscription in the U.S. armed forces.... which is about the only way he ever could have boosted employment. Heck, he can't even decide if we are going to take inflationary or deflationary measures with regards to interest rates, currency manipulation, or any other Fed related activity.

Just show me where any president, democrat, republican, or otherwise has control in any way over the U.S. economy, and i'll change my tune.

But as I see it, the state of any economy is controlled, fundamentally, by the marketplace structure of capitalism, which is ultimately a self regulating structure that the world has choosen to partake in.

And lucky for us, there isn't a person alive that I know of who really can control it. just ask Bush II, Obama, Merkel, Sarkozy, any california state governer over the past 10 years, or any other head of state who has failed to prevent an economic crisis.... and i think they'll agree that no matter what they do, the market tends to move how it will move, as does the underlying economy that the market represents... much to their embarrassment and failure.

X

P.S. and one final note... although congress can a least have some validity in being blameworthy.. I still don't see this as a very compelling argument. We live in a world dominated by some type of capitalism or another... and the very nature of capitalism is that it is not easily controlled by legislation, but it is the marketplace that determines value and opportunity. I mean, I firmly believe that if any politician in the last 100 years could have prevented any of these economic downturns, they would have. I mean... $hit...wouldn't you?? But, no matter how much we want to blame someone else or our government for fiscal problems, ultimately the blame should be placed on the marketplace.... and ultimately, the resolution will be found.... in the marketplace.

Dude, when you patent your mind reading device, you gotta comp me one.

X

I knew you'd write that

LMAO... ok... I really am laughing now!

X

[quote=jarhead;5727277] Jar...also, as a final follow up on this thought (because I don't want to take the focus off of eur/usd analysis... even though government failing and the very existance of the eur/usd IS related!)

the reason why I believe government, by and large, is ineffective implementing any fundamental economic altering laws or actions... is because a capitalistic marketplace works by exploiting opportunity. And it's this opportunity that creates jobs, wealth, etc.

And opportunity in capitalism is finding "a need" and profiting by "filling that need"

But, a government can actually do very little to "create a need"! Unless a government learns how to "create needs" to fill, on demand, they will always fail to ultimately control an economic cycle.

as you see, even if a lot of G jobs were created (like in the new deal).... those are creating JOBS...but not really creating a legitimate NEED first! so, that job is funded via resources that, essentially, are taken from taxes on LEGITIMATE need filling opportunities that create excess capital... or through a more esoteric process of "phantom asset creation" like printing money, selling bonds...etc.

capitalism produces jobs by first finding needs, and filling them...we call this opportunity.

and no government has the ability to manufacture "needs" on a large scale. Needs arise as a natural byproduct of capitalistic interaction...not because of government actions.

Good night all

P.S. and one final note... although congress can a least have some validity in being blameworthy.. I still don't see this as a very compelling

I agree with a lot you say. An exception is Regan. He had to deal with a Democrat congress and Tip O'neal who was a tough old bird. Through the sheer strength of his personality he got massive tax cuts simply using his direct appeal to the populance and his strong personality. Our founders didn't want bills to be easily passed. They intended our government to be deadlocdked most of the time. I don't think the founders had any idea that congress would become lifetime career hacks. When the last Bush introduced no child left behind and the drug plan, I knew we had another fiscal liberal in the whitehouse. People get the government they let happen. I am in the building real-estate business. Two people, Dodd and Frank have put us in the mess we are in with fannie and freddie. Bush tried to reform it twice but didn't have the guts to get down and dirty and force the issue. You and I could probably discuss this for hours but the fact remains, we are at break point in the US. People of both parties are scared. Who would have thought so few people (Obama and group) could take this country down so fast in such little time with so little resistance? Enter the tea party. You will notice in the next election that conseratives have the gloves off. No more John McCain. We are two elections from losing our country as we know it. I didn't mean to get take this much space, I have children and grandchildren I want to grow up in the country I've grown up in.

[quote=forextraderx;5727337][quote=jarhead;5727277]

Jar...also, as a final follow up on this thought (because I don't want to take the focu off of eur/usd analysis... even though government failing and the very existance of the eur/usd IS related!)

This too will be my last post on government. We are in agreement. Government does nothing well except wage war and, in some cases, murder it's citizens as we are seeing in many parts of the world. We have to return to basic government. drastically reform entitlements, get rid of most business restrictions and restore individual freedom. This could be accomplished by two actions. Term limits for congress and a flat consumer tax.

Sold a small position @ 1.2504

historical and psychological resistance, overbought stochs on H4

Me too. SL 1.2512

Si u tumorrou!!!

Good to be nimble. You said earlier that you don't have stop loss and all we see again is SL 1.2512 lol

sold another small position @ 1.25375

Because I was gamble in that . I still underwaters...

4 hour close above the down-trend
I guess the next target going to be 1.26 and im looking for short from there

And now more worry because we broke the trendline

Could be a fakeout, like it was past 1.28

Always keep old trendlines on your chart, that is something new I learned this year. They still act as great resist/support

Have a great day all. My targets are 1.257, 1.262 and 1.267, and I will try a short at all of those spots depending on price action, assuming fundies haven't changed.

Edit: Sorry all the exhaustion lines on this chart are set for lower time frames, I know it's a right mess. That's why there is so many so close together. Doesn't look that bad on a 15m or 5m chart, the lines are way farther apart.

pull back on DXY, next support @ 82.28?

broke my daily trendline at almost exactly 1.520