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  • #46,041
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:32am Jun 3, 2012 6:32am
Quoting fosking
Look at the trade explorers from people in this forum, funny they all start from a max of just a few weeks whilst even a monkey could have made money by just hitting sell.
  • #46,042
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:32am Jun 3, 2012 6:32am
Quoting fosking
Look at the trade explorers from people in this forum, funny they all start from a max of just a few weeks whilst even a monkey could have made money by just hitting sell. The only way you will know if someone is doing ok is if they will be here this time next year. Everything else can be skewed and twisted. Some people will have bigger accounts than others, some people will have demo accounts and others real. Who gives a shit when we are using a forum to try and help each other and give each other insights to how others trade. This thread is nose...
Well foz, I propose my account duration should be tripled, based on the fact that I happened to take at least half of my trades to the LONG side of risk.

Not sure what it proves other than i was so busy making lemons out of lemonade, that I totally missed out on the chance to buy the whole lemon grove industry and retire yesterday but... well... ah nevermind.

If I can continue for another 7ish months, it'll end up a great year. that's all i'm going for at this time.
  • #46,043
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:36am Jun 3, 2012 6:36am
Most people only highlight their investing accomplishments. But I’m going to talk about one of my failures and how you can avoid the same mistakes. I made the mistake in the foreign exchange market but this mistake could apply to practically every market because it involves trading psychology.


One thousand, seven hundred and sixty dollars was what I deposited into my first forex trading account. Most forex traders blow their first account and I was no different. By the time I had finished ‘trading’ I was down to $50 dollars. But if you listen carefully and take notes you might not make the same mistakes I did.

When I first learned about the foreign exchange market I was very excited, to say the least. At the time, with about $37 dollars you could control $10,000 dollars worth of currency. I had been introduced to leverage before with options and futures but most of the options and futures brokers require a higher amount of margin on deposit to get started trading.

Being a college student, I didn’t really have large amounts of cash to start investing, so I decided to get into forex to grow my capital and get rich fast.

Mistake 1: Focusing only on what I would make and not what I would lose

My first mistake was getting into forex with the idea that I would make tons of money and not lose any. All of my projections and profit targets never took into consideration any losing trades.

I planned budgets and future trades based on winning every single trade I made. I ignored the statistics that most day traders lose money and that most first time forex traders blow their first account. I was going to be different.

And it worked…for the first few days.

Mistake 2: Not Controlling My Emotions: Greed, Fear and Revenge

My first few trades were all profitable. My account went from 1760 to 2100 dollars in 3 days! Then I got cocky. I thought I couldn’t lose.

The next morning I made 81 dollars before I even got dressed for the day. I visited a friend and traded a few times before I got to his house. I placed a really big trade with my can’t lose attitude and lost 300 dollars in one morning. That was all the gains I had made to date. I was pissed, so I tried to get revenge on the market and I lost another 300 dollars.

Mistake 3: Not Following My Rules

I lost the first 600 dollars because I didn’t control my emotions and because of those emotions, I threw my rules out the window. A good trader is like a scientist. She formulates a strategy, back tests that strategy against history, forward tests that strategy with a paper trading account and then puts that strategy to work in a live account. If at any point the strategy doesn’t work, she fixes what was wrong in any of those steps and starts again. I had an airtight strategy that I had tested using each of these steps. But trading in a live account with large amounts of leverage can cause any new trader to forget every good habit they learned; especially when one loss wipes out all of your gains.

Mistake 4: Ignoring the Risk to Reward Ratio

It took me about 3 trades to make the first 300 dollars. It only took 1 trade to lose all 300 dollars. That was because I did not pay attention to my risk to reward ratio. I would place a trade with a 100 pip limit and a 300 pip stop. (A pip is the name for the smallest movement in a currency price. For my leverage 100 pips was 100 dollars.) If I paid attention in my statistics class I would have never set up my trades this way.

If I assume that 50% of the time the market will go up and 50% of the time the market will go down, I should also assume that I have a 50-50 chance of being right. With this probability, in order to grow my portfolio, I would have to make more money when I win and risk less money when I lose. I didn’t do that.

After losing a few more trades to fear and greed and statistics, I was down to only 50 dollars. I withdrew the last of my money, whipped by the market. But really I was whipped by my own mind.

Reformed Forex Gambler

I’m very proud to say that I have since learned my lesson. It cost me $1760 dollars to learn it but I am a very disciplined trader now. I follow my rules on every trade. I give every trade at least a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. I don’t let my emotions control me. And I’ve been profitable ever on every trade since! (I am profitable overall, I still lose trades and win trades.

Let’s hope you don’t make the same mistakes I did. But if you decide to ignore me, at least you can say you were warned.

What happened with your first forex account? Any tips for new forex traders?
  • #46,044
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:39am Jun 3, 2012 6:39am
Quoting balanced2012
how can we attach out accounts there ??

thanks
Go here... http://www.forexfactory.com/userguid...lorer_overview
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #46,045
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:43am Jun 3, 2012 6:43am
Another month, another bad jobs report. For the month of May, the U.S. economy only added 69,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 8.2%. Many are calling this a total "disaster" and are worried that the U.S. economy could be headed back into another recession. Economists had been expecting 150,000 payroll jobs would be added, so the 69,000 number really shocked a lot of people. The truth is that the economy needs to add approximately 125,000 new jobs every single month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. So yes, this bad jobs report is not welcome news at all - especially for the Obama administration. When Barack Obama first took office the unemployment rate was sitting at 7.6 percent and now it is sitting at 8.2 percent. Some "recovery", eh? But the reality is that this jobs report was really not that "devastating" even though the stock market had its worst day of the year. Unemployment in America is still about at the same level as it was back at the beginning of 2012. The tough stretch that we are going through right now is only a very small taste of the economic nightmare that is on the horizon. If you think that things are a "disaster" right now, just wait until you see what is coming. At the moment, 53 percent of all Americans with a bachelor's degree under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed, and there are more than 100 million working age Americans that do not currently have jobs.
But this is only just the beginning.
During the next major economic downturn, the unemployment rate in the United States is going to soar well up into the double digits.
Many Americans will look back on 2010, 2011 and 2012 as "the good old days".
Right now, there are only small pockets of the country that are total economic hellholes.
For example, Yuma, Arizona has an unemployment rate of 26 percent, and El Centro, California has an unemployment rate of 26.2 percent.
In the future, those kinds of numbers are going to become the norm all over the nation.
Sadly, most Americans have no idea what is coming.
Today, I wanted to share with you all a couple of chilling economic forecasts that I have been made aware of recently.
The first is from Raoul Pal. According to Zero Hedge, Raoul Pal "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes."
The following is from a Zero Hedge summary of a recent presentation by Raoul Pal....

  1. We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
  2. With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
  3. There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
  4. The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
  5. Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
  6. From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
  7. And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
  8. And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
  9. That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.

  1. It is the big RESET.

It continues:

 

  1. Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  2. The whole bond market will be dead.
  3. Short selling on bonds - banned
  4. Short selling stocks – banned
  5. CDS – banned
  6. Short futures – banned
  7. Put options – banned

  1. All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

 

  1. We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  2. Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  3. After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

So how soon does Raoul Pal think all of this is going to happen?....

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

You can find his entire presentation entitled "The End Game" right here.
What Raoul Pal is saying lines up very well with what Steve Quayle's anonymous international banking source is telling him....

There is no stopping this...We are still on track as I have been predicting for a while now for a fall/winter collapse of the Eurozone and naked exposure of all derivative markets the world over. Europeans will go through a major reset, after time they will recover as Europeans do not carry the type of personal debt that Americans do. It is for America that I worry. Look for these signs next:
1- JPM will be bailed out again but it will not stop the coming market crash. More details will emerge about their derivative swap failure $150 billion and counting.
2-BOA (BAC Bank of America) will fold and be absorbed into JPM as a way to prop up the bleeding Giant. JPM will get the best picking of this deal just like they got with Bear Stearns.
3- Massive layoffs at Citigroup and Wells Fargo
4- Goldman Sachs finally pays the piper, look for massive cuts there as well as BIG Losses
5- Bond market bust which leads to freeze of all bond sales
6- Derivative bust the next one will be BOA followed by Citigroup
7- All CDS shorts and swaps will freeze.
8- Total Meltdown

You can read the rest of what that source is saying right here.
As I have been saying all along, there are two keys that you need to be watching right now....
#1 Europe
#2 Derivatives
Sadly, the articles that I write about Europe tend to get far less of a response than my other articles get. Most Americans simply do not understand that what is happening in Europe right now is going to significantly affect their daily lives.
And most Americans have very little understanding of derivatives. But as you just read, there are some in the financial community that are warning that we could see the derivatives bubble burst very soon.
Time is running out. This period of relative stability that we are currently experiencing will not last forever.
You better get ready.
  • #46,046
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:46am Jun 3, 2012 6:46am
My 1st Forex account was $5,000 of mine and some friends money, and it was a long drawn out affair, it took me about 6 months to lost ½ of it, then we cashed out, and they gave up on forex forever, while 9 or 10 years later I'm still at it... another 4 accounts later.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #46,047
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:46am Jun 3, 2012 6:46am
Quoting pt49
Fos I totally agree with you, but how cool would it be to see someone post a perfect setup (in his/her opinion) and then follow thru and see how that trader is doing?

Not gonna happen, I know.

Oh well.
Alright, I'll bite. I actually did this a bit last week, but those types of posts I tend to put in my journal, if you hop over there...i think on page 2 or 3 I have 2 or 3 pretty decent "real time" break downs of an aud/usd long trade or two.

Anyway, a lot of this is contingent on correlated markets at the time of entry, what they are doing, current price action into a level, overall market tone for the day (risk on or off...)...etc. so, it's kinda a bit tricky

And I'm not gonna post a chart either for now... just more than I care to do. However:

I like 0.9660 long, stop around 0.9630, targeting 9710, and then 9730 for final target.

And short around 0.9847, stop 9877, target 9807

There may be more... and those I may not actually take if I have other reasons to not want the trades... but that is where I'll start looking for sure... and then go from there as the charts develop

X
  • #46,048
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:57am Jun 3, 2012 6:57am
Quoting forextraderx
Alright, I'll bite. I actually did this a bit last week, but those types of posts I tend to put in my journal, if you hop over there...i think on page 2 or 3 I have 2 or 3 pretty decent "real time" break downs of an aud/usd long trade or two.

X
I already knew you had a Trade explorer, and you certainly appear to be going ok too.

My post was directed to those who don't have a Trade Explorer account, (real or demo).
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #46,049
  • Jun 3, 2012 7:01am Jun 3, 2012 7:01am
I have posted my analysis of my trading stategay on market open, and there's nothing complicated about it... very simple, charts included, no sqiggly lines that look pretty.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post5723305

Enjoy.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #46,050
  • Jun 3, 2012 7:32am Jun 3, 2012 7:32am
Quoting pt49
I already knew you had a Trade explorer, and you certainly appear to be going ok too.

My post was directed to those who don't have a Trade Explorer account, (real or demo).
Ah, my mistake. i musta missed the earlier post. carry on.

X
  • #46,051
  • Jun 3, 2012 7:48am Jun 3, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Daytrader74
I’m very proud to say that I have since learned my lesson. It cost me $1760 dollars to learn it but I am a very disciplined trader now. I follow my rules on every trade. I give every trade at least a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. I don’t let my emotions control me. And I’ve been profitable ever on every trade since! (I am profitable overall, I still lose trades and win trades.

Let’s hope you don’t make the same mistakes I did. But if you decide to ignore me, at least you can say you were warned.

What happened with your first forex account?...
Hi Daytrader74

What happened on Friday? Maybe I'm reading this wrong but your MyFXBook ozpips account shows a loss of 2250 pips on June 1st.

Looks like there are still a few lessons still to be learnt such as watch out on NFP day, keep risk low (2-5%) etc.

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  • #46,052
  • Jun 3, 2012 8:36am Jun 3, 2012 8:36am
I don't like to predict long term but AU market has completed a Butterfly. Could be 500 pips to upside next move. Pattern has nice fib confluence on all legs.
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  • #46,053
  • Jun 3, 2012 9:27am Jun 3, 2012 9:27am
Quoting Daytrader74
Most people only highlight their investing accomplishments. But I’m going to talk about one of my failures and how you can avoid the same mistakes. I made the mistake in the foreign exchange market but this mistake could apply to practically every market because it involves trading psychology.


One thousand, seven hundred and sixty dollars was what I deposited into my first forex trading account. Most forex traders blow their first account and I was no different. By the time I had finished ‘trading’ I was down to $50 dollars. But if you listen...
After doing some check and balance i've found out that i had lost USD1556 until last Friday. Now i will never setup a rule but disobey it. Greedy and tempered mind kills me..
You are a Fun-Loving Trader (I do better when i have fun)
  • #46,054
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:14am Jun 3, 2012 11:14am
Quoting jayjb
If you require knowledge of that, you probably have not even learnt the basics of price action and how it affects and moves the market as a whole. Not your random 1 + 3 + my age / my father's age = X EMA.

You sail to uncharted waters each days, not knowing what lies ahead, you either see your certain death or find a bountiful treasure upon a paradise island. You are much like a gambler in a casino, nothing to lose, placing all your money on a single bet that you either make it or break it.
Please change your diet,, ma'am!

Seems to me, you eat too much habanero chili ever day. This could be the reason your temper is so hot!

The area of the uncharted waters is the blank space to the right side of current bar. Elliott Principle is my navigator. Do you know Ralph Nelson Elliott? I do know where I am sailing to. I made several calls last week and made decent money on each call. Call me whatever you like.

Based on your conservative trading method, the frequent use of confirmations before entering trades is the sign of inability to see the next market move until the dust settles. By the time you are ready, the party is over.

Forex market is like a flying target. It never stops. In order to hit the target, you have to aim the next position of the flying target. This is the reason I believe conservative trading method is more suitable for longer term trading. I am a daytrader, being aggressive is a must in order to win in the volatile Forex market.

Based on your view, each US presidential candidate is a big time gambler because no candidate knew he would definitely win the election before entering the race. History was made by "gamblers" not "traders".

If you don't mind, could you share your recent calls on AUDUSD?



daddybearforex. com
  • #46,055
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:31am Jun 3, 2012 11:31am
Quoting forextraderx
Ahh...silver... one of my greatest trades that I made so little on.

I remember shorting....i think it was PRE SYDNEY session... spot silver of course though a forex broker....

Went short at 48.15. Covered around 43. Never held any trade (besides a stock trade) for more than 10% of it's value.

I only had one regret at the time - that I took a smaller than average risk on it...when I should have gone nuts.

Now, my only regret is not holding that position until today.

X

Which broker did you trade spot silver with? I use IG markets before. IG closed its spot Forex and PM business after May, 2011. I still cannot find another good broker to trade spot silver again. US residents are not allowed to trade with foreign brokers. Can you recommend any PM brokers?
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,056
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:38am Jun 3, 2012 11:38am
Quoting ozpips
I don't like to predict long term but AU market has completed a Butterfly. Could be 500 pips to upside next move. Pattern has nice fib confluence on all legs.
Surely, it looks so far ... like that level is still holding and the pin-bar has some reasons too ... if that's a true reversal, then a quick short squeeze above the next resistance zone (around 23.6 Fib.) going to be very important ... anyway, we will see soon enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,057
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:55am Jun 3, 2012 11:55am
Quoting forextraderx
Well foz, I propose my account duration should be tripled, based on the fact that I happened to take at least half of my trades to the LONG side of risk.

Not sure what it proves other than i was so busy making lemons out of lemonade, that I totally missed out on the chance to buy the whole lemon grove industry and retire yesterday but... well... ah nevermind.

If I can continue for another 7ish months, it'll end up a great year. that's all i'm going for at this time.
lol. Half of my trades week by week are longs as well and I seem to be doing great
  • #46,058
  • Jun 3, 2012 12:03pm Jun 3, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Most people only highlight their investing accomplishments...
Honestly, I've been trading ~9 months, and consider myself a very new trader, and don't take this offensively, but I found your post long winded and unhelpful. Not because what you said isn't true, but its so generic it might as well be a copypasta. Your advice might as well have the same weight as "look both ways before crossing the street."

Now if we were to share advice on previous blunders, here is just an example of one of mine (as a new trader I made plenty of mistakes while trying to find my path).

I had a trade that was +40 pips on a friday. My stop was around -20 pips. As I had traded most invincibily for the whole week, I felt I was unstoppable, so I held my trade over the weekend.

By the time sunday came, the gap was sooooooooo huge, that it completely skipped and opened past my stoploss. And for some reason, what happened when the market opened? My trade opened up -50 pips, auto-closed, AND a new trade going the opposite direction opened instead, AND became negative another -50, which I had to immediately manually close.

Beware of that Gap- if your stops are not big enough, don't hold on weekends. :S
  • #46,059
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:17pm Jun 3, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting 1stECN
iAmConsistent because I persisted and relied solely on my creator; God, the father of our lord Jesus Christ

How do you reckon Jesus feels about AUD today? Is he short or long?
  • #46,060
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:52pm Jun 3, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting Paulenok
Perfect? This man has no sense of humility.
He probably skipped the humility part in Bible studies class, like most of the religious people...
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