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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #34,121
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:49am Jun 2, 2012 2:49am
Finally we can see some divergences up in MACD, RSI up in H4, Price got nice support on 13 MA ..so we now can expect some retrace up however Supply noticed in 1.25 area, lets see how it plays.
Attached Image
  • #34,122
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:02am Jun 2, 2012 3:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
Excellent... Find out which proxy they are using and piggy back it.
reckon dont listen to him on this one.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,123
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:59am Jun 2, 2012 3:59am
Quoting drzakir123
reckon dont listen to him on this one.
... and why not? It's quite legal and I'm sure Rekon wouldn't do it if it wasn't
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,124
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:06am Jun 2, 2012 4:06am
Quoting rekon67
Finally we can see some divergences up in MACD, RSI up in H4, Price got nice support on 13 MA ..so we now can expect some retrace up however Supply noticed in 1.25 area, lets see how it plays.
Perfect for shorts.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,125
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:09am Jun 2, 2012 4:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Perfect for shorts.

Attachment
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,126
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:18am Jun 2, 2012 4:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.remodelservices.com/images/bz020525.gif
Haha love it!
  • #34,127
  • Edited 6:37am Jun 2, 2012 6:16am | Edited 6:37am
Following is my trade plan for the next week.

Actually we have an ABCD BUY , (A=1.3067, B=1.2638, C=1.2824, D=1.2286 - 1.27 x AB = CD), the target of this BUY is between the B and C points. I'm already in with long 25% of my lot size at 1.2329, I plan to enter another 25% on retrace back to 1.24, another 50% on eventually retrace to 1.2360 (1.2360 will then be the right shoulder of an inverted HS, that I LIKE to see as a reliable inversion pattern...).

My tp will be 50% at 1.2587 (50% retrace of entire move down, then SL remaining 50% at 1.2587) and 50% at 1.2770 (61.8% retrace of entire move down).

If instead the market will skyrocket up (QE3?!?, BOJ?!?), I will buy on the dips during the week.

June historically was a range month, we will see.

Good and beautifull pips to everyone.

PS

Italy is not Greece or Spain....we are not in bankrupt, our problem that the people have a LOT of money in their bank accounts, BUT since they are not confident in these last 20 years governments they don't want to pay taxes. If we just lease back 1% of our historical properties we will refund all the outstanding debt.....think of it....Think of lease back Venice to some Japanese/Chinese bank how much we will get?

forexBOOM
  • #34,128
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:45am Jun 2, 2012 7:45am
Come on, PipTrapper - it's a weekend!
I'm afraid to miss something interesting and coming here too
69
  • #34,129
  • Jun 2, 2012 7:54am Jun 2, 2012 7:54am
Quoting Likerty
Come on, PipTrapper - it's a weekend!
I'm afraid to miss something interesting and coming here too
I can't help it. I came to my computer to relax and check my email, and the mouse went all by itself to the FF link and clicked on it.

http://liferiddles.net/wp-content/up...nted-Mouse.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,130
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:02pm Jun 2, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting forextraderx
Hey all, I've seen a lot of people arguing over whether the euro is gonna go up or down (shocking, i know)... and how/why this last NFP caused the markets to react as it did.

Now, what i'm about to post may be slightly off subject, but I think it may at least provide some insight to how market sentiment and expectations play a role in these types of news reactions.

I wrote up a fairly detailed point of view here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=2672907

If it's totally off theme because it's not all eur/usd...
Your link take us nowhere...
  • #34,131
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:08pm Jun 2, 2012 2:08pm
Greece “is unravelling,” and ever-more aid cannot deliver the new beginning that Greece needs, said Nikolaus Blome, Bild’s chief political columnist. The Greek state “must be rebuilt, like in a developing nation,” he said. “Someone among the euro- zone leaders must finally tell the Greeks the truth: this fresh start can only be achieved with a radical first step. And that means leaving the euro.”........(Bloomberg).....
  • #34,132
  • Jun 2, 2012 2:27pm Jun 2, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting forexboom
Following is my trade plan for the next week.

Actually we have an ABCD BUY , (A=1.3067, B=1.2638, C=1.2824, D=1.2286 - 1.27 x AB = CD), the target of this BUY is between the B and C points. I'm already in with long 25% of my lot size at 1.2329, I plan to enter another 25% on retrace back to 1.24, another 50% on eventually retrace to 1.2360 (1.2360 will then be the right shoulder of an inverted HS, that I LIKE to see as a reliable inversion pattern...).

My tp will be 50% at 1.2587 (50% retrace of entire move down, then SL remaining 50% at 1.2587)...
What you rely on the EURUSD will reach 1.27? would rather get in a few days to 1.22 and then 1.18 .... Spain is already helping hand to rescuers about Greece ... Europe ... And all the polls predicted anti European coalition won the elections .. . we shall live and see, but the euro is sure to fail!
  • #34,133
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:09pm Jun 2, 2012 3:09pm
Okay here is my predicament:

My two favorite and most heavily traded pairs are EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY, in fact, they account for about 80% of all of my trading activity. The other 20% is EUR/USD & AUD/USD.

However, right now I am in a predicament for a few reasons...

1) Will BOJ intervene again if we go too low?
2) Is it even possible for the EUR/JPY to go lower then what we saw on Friday?
3) FEDs QE3 - I was a firm believer that there would be no additional QE until after elections as that is almost suicide for Obama and his re-election.But, as FXSwissTrader pointed out, "Personal Consumption Expenditure is under 2%. That is Ben Bernanke's favorite measure to use when deciding on stimulus or not."


We all saw UJ had a violent spike upwards when price hit about 79.79, which PT pointed out, was BOJ intervention. So, this means they really don't want the Yen to get too much stronger than it already is. Last year they had their first trade deficit in 20 years and they are trying to avoid that problem again, one of the best ways for them to avoid another deficit would be to weaken their yen.

First, if the Euro goes down to the target rate of 1.17-1.18 in the near future, will the EUR/JPY also go lower? Or will the BOJ intervene again? If they intervene again, are they able to suppress the value of the Yen indefinitely?

Second, due to the bad US numbers, should we now be expecting another round of QE?

If QE happens in the US, this should drive the EUR up and USD down. If the USD weakens due to more QE, the USD will weaken against the Yen, so there is another chance of BOJ intervention.

If both happen, this will drive EUR/JPY up dramatically, in my opinion.

I know none of us have a crystal ball but I would appreciate some other people's opinions and input on this matter. Thanks!
  • #34,134
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:27pm Jun 2, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting costyn
What you rely on the EURUSD will reach 1.27? would rather get in a few days to 1.22 and then 1.18 .... Spain is already helping hand to rescuers about Greece ... Europe ... And all the polls predicted anti European coalition won the elections .. . we shall live and see, but the euro is sure to fail!
Analyzing market behavior does take some experience, I don't see why it wont go to 2600 (2700 in case of QE3, BOJ, ECB injecting liquidity, ECB already considering Euro 500B to be ready by July)

Here are some of the facts i have noted

WEEKLY SUPPORTS : Price went to WS2 2310 only to bounce to previous ws1 2453, it would take billions to move the market by 140 pips. The bounce in price can be understood with the bears liquidating their shorts, along with the bulls adding fuel to the move. That impose the price is going into consolidation / retraction mode and for now 2288 will be respected.

4 HOUR wedge Broken : I had my eyes on the latest wedge that was finished with a drop to 2300 and broken to upside. Historically wedges are known as the last wave of the higher degree wave that we can analyse to be one started from 2822, 1 hour / 4 hour divergences are there to add on to the bullish views. This wave has 61.8 fib at 2617, which was an important level as support. So is is quite possible that price can reach there for a retest.

COT : COT reports released on wednesday suggest that net shorts have increased by another 4% to 31.5 billion, so big bears were already short, and they need to take their profits out to get loaded again from higher levels on top of that the market is always in search of stops, is what pushes the price upward, liquidating the big short positions.

NFP: Weak NFP data, Caused the USD to loose its portion of strength seen in May. London closed in +ve territory without a reasonable profit taking happening which means the bulls are looking at more higher prices in future.

The current resistance is the wedge on 4hour, once broken will add fuel to the move which is at the moment is uncertain.

Here are the levels i will be watching over the next week

2300, 2360, 2453, 2491, 2619 and 2704
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu _4hr.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #34,135
  • Edited 3:49pm Jun 2, 2012 3:38pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Okay here is my predicament:

My two favorite and most heavily traded pairs are EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY, in fact, they account for about 80% of all of my trading activity. The other 20% is EUR/USD & AUD/USD.

However, right now I am in a predicament for a few reasons...
Quoting 100PipsADay
1) Will BOJ intervene again if we go too low?
You can bet on it. I will.

Quoting 100PipsADay
2) Is it even possible for the EUR/JPY to go lower then what we saw on Friday?
Possible yes, but it will be short lived unless all hell breaks loose and the BOJ cannot do enough to stop it. The BOJ does not have the same capabilities as the SNB. Basically they are a bankrupt country. Why they are even seen as a safe haven is beyond me, and beyond them also, but such is life.

Quoting 100PipsADay
3) FEDs QE3 - I was a firm believer that there would be no additional QE until after elections as that is almost suicide for Obama and his re-election.But, as FXSwissTrader pointed out, "Personal Consumption Expenditure is under 2%. That is Ben Bernanke's favorite measure to use when deciding on stimulus or not."[/b]
You are correct in your assumption. QE3 is not on the menu and will not be until after the election (if ever). The Fed does not need to implement another round of asset purchases in the current environment. Rates are at an all time low, so purchasing more government bonds will do nothing for rates. However, if the Fed needs to inject more liquidity into the economy, they have other avenues such as extending or enhancing the current USD swap agreements with the ECB, BOE, BOJ, BOC and SNB. They will probably come under fire from the US Senate for doing so but they will just turn around and say "We had to do it coz you guys are doing nothing despite the writing on the wall"

Quoting 100PipsADay
We all saw UJ had a violent spike upwards when price hit about 79.79, which PT pointed out, was BOJ intervention. So, this means they really don't want the Yen to get too much stronger than it already is. Last year they had their first trade deficit in 20 years and they are trying to avoid that problem again, one of the best ways for them to avoid another deficit would be to weaken their yen.
Correct, but try as they will, if the sentiment out there remains risk-off for too long, they will fail. Last year's failed kamakazi attempts are proof of that. The only reason the Yen weakened was because of the risk-on sentiment between Jan and April.

Quoting 100PipsADay
First, if the Euro goes down to the target rate of 1.17-1.18 in the near future, will the EUR/JPY also go lower? Or will the BOJ intervene again? If they intervene again, are they able to suppress the value of the Yen indefinitely?
If the EUR/USD goes to 1.17-1.18 area, it does not necessarily mean that the EUR/JPY will also go down. What if we get good job numbers again and all is well in the US, but Europe keeps suffering. In that case the USD will rally and the JPY will weaken. That will cause the EUR/USD to drop while the EUR/JPY rises or stays flat. Remember the JPY is strong because it is a preferred safe haven. If US shows promise, then the USD will become the preferred safe haven for those who don't jump on the hopium wagon.

Quoting 100PipsADay
Second, due to the bad US numbers, should we now be expecting another round of QE?
No, Never. However, what the market thinks is more important than reality. The market is not smart. If it was, we would not be in this mess.

Quoting 100PipsADay
If QE happens in the US, this should drive the EUR up and USD down. If the USD weakens due to more QE, the USD will weaken against the Yen, so there is another chance of BOJ intervention.
Not applicable... See above.

Quoting 100PipsADay
If both happen, this will drive EUR/JPY up dramatically, in my opinion.
Ditto... see above

Quoting 100PipsADay
I know none of us have a crystal ball but I would appreciate some other people's opinions and input on this matter. Thanks!
...and that's my view.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,136
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:58pm Jun 2, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting nunonuk
Your link take us nowhere...
I believe he referred to this post here,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692
  • #34,137
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:18pm Jun 2, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting forextraderx
Hey all, I've seen a lot of people arguing over whether the euro is gonna go up or down (shocking, i know)... and how/why this last NFP caused the markets to react as it did.

Now, what i'm about to post may be slightly off subject, but I think it may at least provide some insight to how market sentiment and expectations play a role in these types of news reactions.

I wrote up a fairly detailed point of view here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692

If it's totally off theme because it's not all eur/usd...


You and I seem to be cut from the same cloth. The difference is that you have the ability to explain it in an eloquent fashion. Well done. Feel free to post your doctoral thesis on EurAnalysis once it is completed.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,138
  • Edited 4:48pm Jun 2, 2012 4:37pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
You can bet on it. I will.


Possible yes, but it will be short lived unless all hell breaks loose and the BOJ cannot do enough to stop it. The BOJ does not have the same capabilities as the SNB. Basically they are a bankrupt country. Why they are even seen as a safe haven is beyond me, and beyond them also, but such is life.


You are correct in your assumption. QE3 is not on the menu and will not be until after the election (if ever). The Fed does not need to implement another round of asset purchases in the current environment. Rates are...

Thank you very much for the informative break down. I am going to read it a few times until it sinks in.

**Maybe I will back away from the JPY cross currency pairs for a while and stick with the EUR/USD and AUD/USD for the time being.

Last Week: I closed all 6 of my EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY trades on Friday for a total of 554 pips. Unfortunately I was up about 800 pips at the peak of the action, but I didn't close the trades in time, I let greed kick in and when the BOJ intervened, well, it was too late... I had a great week totaling 897 pips so no complaints!

This Week: I am going to back away from the JPY cross currency pairs and stick with EUR/USD as well as AUD/USD. I will look for new entry points at 1.246, 1.25, and 1.262.
  • #34,139
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:40pm Jun 2, 2012 4:40pm
hey folks...sorry about the broken link. I'm reposting the above...below, and double checking the link:

ORIGINAL POST:
Quote
Hey all, I've seen a lot of people arguing over whether the euro is gonna go up or down (shocking, i know)... and how/why this last NFP caused the markets to react as it did.

Now, what i'm about to post may be slightly off subject, but I think it may at least provide some insight to how market sentiment and expectations play a role in these types of news reactions.

I wrote up a fairly detailed point of view here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692

If it's totally off theme because it's not all eur/usd related, let...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692

P.S. Ok, cool, it worked. since the first non-linking post didnt work...i'll just delete it. (if i can)
  • #34,140
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:46pm Jun 2, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting forextraderx
hey folks...sorry about the broken link. I'm reposting the above...below, and double checking the link:

ORIGINAL POST:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post5722692

P.S. Ok, cool, it worked. since the first non-linking post didnt work...i'll just delete it. (if i can)
Excellent Post! Thank you for sharing ForexTraderX
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