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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #34,101
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:52pm Jun 1, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting Greenstar
It did not seem to go as the following article said it would:

If we had a "bad" number, the writer says, in today's environment, the tendency would be as follows for the EU and UJ and other pairs affected

1. the pair in the first hour would go UP, and then,

2. retrace and head down. Bad data would mean risk aversion and dollar strength.

If we had a "good" number, then, the reverse. At first, the pairs would go DOWN, and then retrace up. The idea is that, with good number, there would be at first some kind of loyalty (my way...
Whatever the reason was... Somebody(s) was protecting 2300 area. Market slided 5 consecutive weeks without noticeable pull back (first hint). After the news, 2 bars in 15 min chart with long lower wicks with bullish divergence in 1hr chart should have given you enough hints about rejection at 2300. I don't think the bear run is over just because we've had bull div in 1hr and 4th, however, if you pay attention to it then you can make a good profit, counter trend.
  • #34,102
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:10pm Jun 1, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Whatever the reason was... Somebody(s) was protecting 2300 area. Market slided 5 consecutive weeks without noticeable pull back (first hint). After the news, 2 bars in 15 min chart with long lower wicks with bullish divergence in 1hr chart should have given you enough hints about rejection at 2300. I don't think the bear run is over just because we've had bull div in 1hr and 4th, however, if you pay attention to it then you can make a good profit, counter trend.
Need to be able to set up ahead of time; cannot watch at all due to work schedule. I was expecting a EU turn around soon for the reason in your first sentence, at 1.2300. I think what I'll do next time is carefully set up limit orders AND take profit levels, around price. That first one hour candle, particularly on UJ, was one I could have profited from big-time had I had a sell order in place, with a deep take profit.
  • #34,103
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:13pm Jun 1, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting Greenstar
Need to be able to set up ahead of time; cannot watch at all due to work schedule. I was expecting a EU turn around soon for the reason in your first sentence, at 1.2300. I think what I'll do next time is carefully set up limit orders AND take profit levels, around price. That first one hour candle, particularly on UJ, was one I could have profited from big-time had I had a sell order in place, with a deep take profit.
Limit in news hour, especially the nfp, is a suicidal mission. If you don't have time to watch the chart then just skip it, it ain't worth it.
  • #34,104
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:26pm Jun 1, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Limit in news hour, especially the nfp, is a suicidal mission. If you don't have time to watch the chart then just skip it, it ain't worth it.
Yes. What do you think? Is there not a way to predict in general what will happen when there is a surprise BAD news print, or vice versa, to pairs such as the UJ - taking into account all factors one is able to process about the current environment, and then applying that principle?

I am going to focus on that one as far as limit orders next time around. EU is too unpredictable but I think UJ may not be quite as unpredictable.
  • #34,105
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:33pm Jun 1, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting Greenstar
Yes. What do you think? Is there not a way to predict in general what will happen when there is a surprise BAD news print, or vice versa, to pairs such as the UJ - taking into account all factors one is able to process about the current environment, and then applying that principle?

I am going to focus on that one as far as limit orders next time around. EU is too unpredictable but I think UJ may not be quite as unpredictable.
You can't predict the market. No one can. Doesn't matter which ones you trade.
  • #34,106
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:43pm Jun 1, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting Greenstar
Yes. What do you think? Is there not a way to predict in general what will happen when there is a surprise BAD news print, or vice versa, to pairs such as the UJ - taking into account all factors one is able to process about the current environment, and then applying that principle?

I am going to focus on that one as far as limit orders next time around. EU is too unpredictable but I think UJ may not be quite as unpredictable.
The thing with the UJ was that it went down just as expected.

BUT, the quick, very large upwards movement was due to BOJ intervention as PT pointed out.

So the reaction was correct, USD/JPY went down. However, BOJ stepped in and said No, we aren't going to let this happen.

After everything was said and done, USD/JPY was basically neutral.
  • #34,107
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:54pm Jun 1, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting pkimnyc
You can't predict the market. No one can. Doesn't matter which ones you trade.
If i keep a UJ position size microscopic i might be able to test. Because I live in Hawaii and work a full-time job with a fair commute, pulling in money requires extra attention, and limit order experiments - that's why I want anything I can learn about 'first principles' of price action around NFP. I see you may be in New York City. That's where I was born, and I REALLY appreciate it. Hawaii is different to the max.
  • #34,108
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:00pm Jun 1, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting Greenstar
If i keep a UJ position size microscopic i might be able to test. Because I live in Hawaii and work a full-time job with a fair commute, pulling in money requires extra attention, and limit order experiments - that's why I want anything I can learn about 'first principles' of price action around NFP. I see you may be in New York City. That's where I was born, and I REALLY appreciate it. Hawaii is different to the max.
you gotta pick a session. either london, ny, or even asia. stick to one session where you can fully focus.
  • #34,109
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:45pm Jun 1, 2012 7:45pm
Quoting pkimnyc
you gotta pick a session. either london, ny, or even asia. stick to one session where you can fully focus.
Cannot ever be present for the entirety of any session as long as I'm working full time.

Installed PipTrapper's template with a good pivot point indicator and other stuff. I'm still watching the Volume indicator and may write to PT to clarify what it means when bars are green vs red, which doesn't match the candle color, necessarily. I kind of get the largeness/smallness aspect.

Price stabilizes around the lines on the template during Asia, and moves more radically in London but tends to hang around by support and resistance levels.
  • #34,110
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:09pm Jun 1, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting Greenstar
Cannot ever be present for the entirety of any session as long as I'm working full time.

Installed PipTrapper's template with a good pivot point indicator and other stuff. I'm still watching the Volume indicator and may write to PT to clarify what it means when bars are green vs red, which doesn't match the candle color, necessarily. I kind of get the largeness/smallness aspect.

Price stabilizes around the lines on the template during Asia, and moves more radically in London but tends to hang around by support and resistance levels....
do you have a preferred time frame to trade? it may not apply to you if you are primarily a scalper, but for busy schedules, it's nice to trade off H4 or higher so you only have to look at the charts a few times a day
  • #34,111
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:10pm Jun 1, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting Greenstar
Cannot ever be present for the entirety of any session as long as I'm working full time.

Installed PipTrapper's template with a good pivot point indicator and other stuff. I'm still watching the Volume indicator and may write to PT to clarify what it means when bars are green vs red, which doesn't match the candle color, necessarily. I kind of get the largeness/smallness aspect.

Price stabilizes around the lines on the template during Asia, and moves more radically in London but tends to hang around by support and resistance...
It's quite simple really. When the volume bar is green, it means it has a higher volume reading than the prior bar. When it is red, it has a lower volume reading than the prior bar.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,112
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:15pm Jun 1, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
The thing with the UJ was that it went down just as expected.

BUT, the quick, very large upwards movement was due to BOJ intervention as PT pointed out.

So the reaction was correct, USD/JPY went down. However, BOJ stepped in and said No, we aren't going to let this happen.

After everything was said and done, USD/JPY was basically neutral.
You hit the nail on the head 100Pips

http://oels.byu.edu/student/idioms/i...il_on_head.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,113
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:15pm Jun 1, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting Greenstar
It did not seem to go as the following article said it would:

If we had a "bad" number, the writer says, in today's environment, the tendency would be as follows for the EU and UJ and other pairs affected

1. the pair in the first hour would go UP, and then,

2. retrace and head down. Bad data would mean risk aversion and dollar strength.

If we had a "good" number, then, the reverse. At first, the pairs would go DOWN, and then retrace up. The idea is that, with good number, there would be at first some kind of loyalty (my way...
http://www.remodelservices.com/images/bz020525.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,114
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:20pm Jun 1, 2012 11:20pm
Just realized I am behind 75 pages this is all due to my slow mobile internet which is now in Roaming mode and my client place Internet policy block FF :|
  • #34,115
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:24pm Jun 1, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Ive ben sayin it all along... Italy will really herald the breakup of the EU... or at the very least a restructuring where all the piigs will be gone at least....
Things were supposed to improve when Berlusconi got the boot. I see nothing has changed in Italy. In it's long history I think it's had an average of 1.1 prime ministers per year (tic). Is it time for Monti to go yet?

http://www.truthdig.com/images/earto...11-c_s-500.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,116
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:34pm Jun 1, 2012 11:34pm
http://italychronicles.com/wp-conten...Monti-goes.jpg

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,117
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:38pm Jun 1, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting rekon67
Just realized I am behind 75 pages this is all due to my slow mobile internet which is now in Roaming mode and my client place Internet policy block FF :|
That's a lot of reading Rekon. Welcome back by the way. I hope you will be able to bypass the firewall.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,118
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:43pm Jun 1, 2012 11:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's a lot of reading Rekon. Welcome back by the way. I hope you will be able to bypass the firewall.
Am slow...ly reading.

Yes, I noticed some Employees are using a proxy to open FaceBook , am sure will find out some loopholes by next week or so
  • #34,119
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:18am Jun 2, 2012 12:18am
Quoting rekon67
Am slow...ly reading.

Yes, I noticed some Employees are using a proxy to open FaceBook , am sure will find out some loopholes by next week or so
Excellent... Find out which proxy they are using and piggy back it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,120
  • Jun 2, 2012 12:28am Jun 2, 2012 12:28am
Hi everyone , another a good week. It could of been better as some times i couldnt get a trigger . i need e/u and g/u to lift a little so i can play but having said that it was good and the students are happy lol. Take care i will no doubt pop in here before sunday evening. billy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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