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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #34,061
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:31pm Jun 1, 2012 1:31pm
Come on baby. go go go. don't stop. Make me feel good. Yeah baby that's how I like it.

Target 1.2518

E/U H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 49 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,062
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:37pm Jun 1, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Come on baby. go go go. don't stop. Make me feel good. Yeah baby that's how I like it.

Target 1.2518

E/U H1
Attachment
PT ur wish will be fulfilled.have patience,for the moments few impatient bear need to be slaughter..who knows later i may join u as well but i think price may aim for 1.2750 first.did u notice the correction we were having were quite flat and probably this correction will be a bit deeper
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,063
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:44pm Jun 1, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting ERedRick
This morning - as my piggy short was getting thrashed - there was discussion of the bad US data signaling possible QE3. Were it to come, what would it do to E/U, & why. Still confused. Usually when Dow tanks so does E/U. Thnx!
Hi Red,

Over the last month, the USD has made some very large gains because of a risk off environment coupled with a low risk of QE3.

Today it is still a risk off environment but the risk of QE3 has gone up one notch.

Therefore, some of the gains of the USD have to come off to balance it out. That gives a short term lift to most USD cross pairs including the EUR/USD, but as long as there is still a problem in Europe, the effect will be very temporary. QE3 will not be implemented until sometime in early 2013, if at all.

So what will drive the EUR/USD up in the long term?

1. The introduction of EuroBonds and a banking union (Very unlikely this year)
2. Federalization of the EuroZone or at least a fiscal union (No political will for it)
3. A miracle from God (More likely than the above)

What will drive the Euro down in the long term?
1. Status quo
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,064
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:45pm Jun 1, 2012 1:45pm
PT all my lower positions are in profit by about 70 pips. do u think the price may touch 1.2500 today?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,065
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:46pm Jun 1, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting drzakir123
PT ur wish will be fulfilled.have patience,for the moments few impatient bear need to be slaughter..who knows later i may join u as well but i think price may aim for 1.2750 first.did u notice the correction we were having were quite flat and probably this correction will be a bit deeper
If price breaks and holds above 1.2623, then I will start blowing the bullhorn. Until then, I'm a bear.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,066
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:47pm Jun 1, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting drzakir123
PT all my lower positions are in profit by about 70 pips
Excellent.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,067
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:48pm Jun 1, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting AaronWard
QE means more dollars chasing the same number of goods which means the value of the dollar goes down. Further, QE means a happy stock market which means risk on which means the value of the dollar goes down again. So basically the USD gets hit twice and sinks.
I still doubt they'll do it in an election year, but apparently I'm in the minority with that opinion! Thanks for the explanation, that helped. I sucked it up & took my loss.
  • #34,068
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:52pm Jun 1, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Red,

Over the last month, the USD has made some very large gains because of a risk off environment coupled with a low risk of QE3.

Today it is still a risk off environment but the risk of QE3 has gone up one notch.

Therefore, some of the gains of the USD have to come off to balance it out. That gives a short term lift to most USD cross pairs including the EUR/USD, but as long as there is still a problem in Europe, the effect will be very temporary. QE3 will not be implemented until sometime in early 2013, if at all.

So what will drive the...
Thanx for the good explanation! If I hadn't been a pig, I wouldn't have gotten slaughtered!
  • #34,069
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:53pm Jun 1, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If price breaks and holds above 1.2623, then I will start blowing the bullhorn. Until then, I'm a bear.
Agree! I am still waiting my low... I am a patience bull
Attached Image
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #34,070
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:54pm Jun 1, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Come on baby. go go go. don't stop. Make me feel good. Yeah baby that's how I like it.

Target 1.2518

E/U H1
Attachment
I'm with you but it's looking quite bleak PT.
  • #34,071
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:57pm Jun 1, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting ERedRick
Thanx for the good explanation! If I hadn't been a pig, I wouldn't have gotten slaughtered!
dont worry if ur loss is within parameter of risk u will do alright.the important thing is u took the loss and only a man with balls take it and ur da man. well done.urs was a good trade.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #34,072
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:58pm Jun 1, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm with you but it's looking quite bleak PT.
Don't worry. Asia will dump some US Dollars on Sunday night.

It would be even better if this sucker had a nice gap up over the weekend to higher than 1.2518. That way I get triggered at the open price
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,073
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:59pm Jun 1, 2012 1:59pm
I just love those pullbacks
1.245 still doing fine, scalped 20 pips.
  • #34,074
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:02pm Jun 1, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting drzakir123
dont worry if ur loss is within parameter of risk u will do alright.the important thing is u took the loss and only a man with balls take it and ur da man. well done.urs was a good trade.
Agreed. If you're not willing to take the loss, don't take the risk.

The key to learn from this is...

Only sell a down trend at resistance.
Only buy an up trend at support.

Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #34,075
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:03pm Jun 1, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't worry. Asia will dump some US Dollars on Sunday night.

It would be even better if this sucker had a nice gap up over the weekend to higher than 1.2518. That way I get triggered at the open price
Don't forget that there was some market talk that Japanese names have been told NOT to be short USD over the weekend.

May there be some surprise over the weekend and gap down?
  • #34,076
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:05pm Jun 1, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Market talk that Japanese names have been told NOT to be short the U.S dollar over the weekend.

---------------------------------
There's your hint folks.
What does the hint mean for the EURUSD? Do I want to be shorting this pair over the weekend? Hope someone can help this newbie
  • #34,077
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:07pm Jun 1, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't worry. Asia will dump some US Dollars on Sunday night.

It would be even better if this sucker had a nice gap up over the weekend to higher than 1.2518. That way I get triggered at the open price

Also market talk of major central banks are to announce another liquidity boosting program over the weekend.
  • #34,078
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:08pm Jun 1, 2012 2:08pm
Guys, its a FLAT could be tricky we will have our pullback.

1.2507/20
1.2620/30
1.2820/80
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FLAT.png Size: 62 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #34,079
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:08pm Jun 1, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting otea
What does the hint mean for the EURUSD? Do I want to be shorting this pair over the weekend? Hope someone can help this newbie
I certainly will NOT be opening any new positions to hold over the weekend, if that's what you're asking.
  • #34,080
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:10pm Jun 1, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting otea
What does the hint mean for the EURUSD? Do I want to be shorting this pair over the weekend? Hope someone can help this newbie
This weekend there is an equal risk of a gap us as well as a gap down.

Earlier today there was talk that the central banks may be organizing some kind of meeting to discuss extending the swaps to inject more liquidity into the global markets. The effect would be similar to a mini back door QE which would be USD negative, but the effects would be temporary.

In simple terms, if they do it, E/U goes up. If they don't, E/U goes down.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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