EurAnalysis

Excellent shot. You don't find that kind of scenery anywhere else.

Anyone with half a brain knows Gov't data is all BS.

Taleb Says Euro Breakup ‘Not A Big Deal’ As U.S. Scariest
By Frederic Tomesco - May 30, 2012 11:01 AM GMT+0700
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-scariest.html

Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said he favors investing in Europe over the U.S. even with the possible breakup of the single European currency in part because of the euro area’s superior deficit situation.

Europe’s lack of a centralized government is another reason it’s preferable to invest in the region, said Taleb, a professor of risk engineering at New York University whose 2007 best- selling book argued that history is littered with rare events that can’t be predicted by trends.

A breakup of the euro “is not a big deal,” Taleb said yesterday at an event in Montreal hosted by the Alternative Investment Management Association. “When they break it up, there will be a lot of fun currencies. This is why I am not afraid of Europe, or investing in Europe. I’m afraid of the United States.”

The budget deficit as a proportion of gross domestic product in the U.S. amounted to 8.2 percent at the end of 2011, government figures show. That’s twice the 4.1 percent ratio for euro-region countries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Of course Europe has its problems, but it’s in much better shape than the United States,” Taleb said. He voiced similar concerns about U.S. prospects at a conference in Tokyo in September.

Yields on two-year Treasury notes were little changed at 0.285 percent at 9:19 p.m. New York time yesterday, while yields on five-year notes dropped more than one basis point to 0.761 percent.

Interest Rates
Rising interest rates would make things worse for the U.S., said Taleb, a principal at hedge fund Universa Investments LP who also serves as an adviser to the International Monetary Fund.

“We have zero interest rates,” Taleb said. “If interest rates go up in the United States, you can imagine what the deficit would be. Europe is like someone who is ill but is conscious of it. In the United States we are ill, but we don’t know it. We don’t talk about it.”

Europe’s lack of a centralized government works in its favor, he said.
“The best thing Europe ever did is managing to have members bickering with each other, so you don’t have the big government,” Taleb said. “Centralized government doesn’t work. In Europe they tried to have a powerful Brussels, but what happens when you have a powerful Brussels? You have lobbies hijacking Brussels.”

It doesn't really matter to us if it is BS. What matters to us is how the market reacts to it

25 minutes. Get your popcorn ready.

Only 4 minutes left to submit your guess for the NFP number.

smilemiz: +200K
HombreAlto: +180K
CommercialB: +170K
Savager: +165K
mahogany: +155K
mka_78: +152K
Quidproquo: +150K
neuron: +147K
nunonuk: +145K
Gofer Pips: +143K
minortrader: +142K
sftyler: +141K
FXSwissTrader: +138K
PipsMaster23: +136K
100PipsADay: +132K
halkins: +125K
PipTrapper: +123K
ejiexe: +118K
Cgb: +115K
BFSGcapital: +111K
Halifax: +102K
Luis Carlos: +100K
Likerty: +97K
CurrencyMan: +90K
afos: +88K
sisse: +18K

26 Participants

105 k
8%

smilemiz: +200K
HombreAlto: +180K
CommercialB: +170K
Savager: +165K
mahogany: +155K
mka_78: +152K
Quidproquo: +150K
neuron: +147K
nunonuk: +145K
Gofer Pips: +143K
minortrader: +142K
sftyler: +141K
FXSwissTrader: +138K
PipsMaster23: +136K
100PipsADay: +132K
halkins: +125K
PipTrapper: +123K
ejiexe: +118K
Cgb: +115K
BFSGcapital: +111K
Harpe Eagle: +105K
Halifax: +102K
Luis Carlos: +100K
Likerty: +97K
CurrencyMan: +90K
afos: +88K
sisse: +18K

27 Participants

Guessing time expired.

No more guesses allowed.

Here's the final list...


smilemiz: +200K
HombreAlto: +180K
CommercialB: +170K
Savager: +165K
mahogany: +155K
mka_78: +152K
Quidproquo: +150K
neuron: +147K
nunonuk: +145K
Gofer Pips: +143K
minortrader: +142K
sftyler: +141K
FXSwissTrader: +138K
PipsMaster23: +136K
100PipsADay: +132K
halkins: +125K
PipTrapper: +123K
ejiexe: +118K
Cgb: +115K
BFSGcapital: +111K
Harpe Eagle: +105K
Halifax: +102K
Luis Carlos: +100K
Likerty: +97K
CurrencyMan: +90K
afos: +88K
sisse: +18K

27 Participants

-10k from 115 mean 105k

Now tell me is eur/usd up or down???

, sadly. The globalists may have succeeded more in damaging/incapacitating the United States than in centralizing a beachhead in Europe.

I am taking my seat

So now that we are in the final stretch leading up to the NFP number, I have a few comments.

There are three things we have to mainly look at

1. The actual headline number
2. Any revisions to previous number
3. Unemployment rate

Assuming no revisions to prior reports and an unemployment rate of 8.1%
- A much lower number will be USD negative but risk-off sentiment will cap that and eventually become USD positive (Except against the JPY and possibly CHF)
- A much higher number will be USD positive but risk on sentiment will limit it and eventually turn USD negative (Except against the JPY)

The Euro will eventually be negative either way but against a negative USD, it may rise to resistance (I figure max 1.2500/25). Against a positive USD obviously it will go down without a correction.

If we see a revision to the previous number, then you have to factor that in to the current number. A revision lower means more of an increase in today's number and vice versa.

A change lower in the unemployment rate, adds to risk-on sentiment and vice versa.

Good luck and loads of green pips to you all.

152k ftw

+69K

and the winner is

smilemiz: +200K
HombreAlto: +180K
CommercialB: +170K
Savager: +165K
mahogany: +155K
mka_78: +152K
Quidproquo: +150K
neuron: +147K
nunonuk: +145K
Gofer Pips: +143K
minortrader: +142K
sftyler: +141K
FXSwissTrader: +138K
PipsMaster23: +136K
100PipsADay: +132K
halkins: +125K
PipTrapper: +123K
ejiexe: +118K
Cgb: +115K
BFSGcapital: +111K
Harpe Eagle: +105K
Halifax: +102K
Luis Carlos: +100K
Likerty: +97K
CurrencyMan: +90K
afos: +88K
sisse: +18K

Afos gets a voucher from me

WOW! I am glad I held those AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY shorts!!!!!!


Wooohooooo!

congrats afos!!

What does Afos win for being the closest?

More Green Pips I hope...

http://www.wondercliparts.com/congra...graphics_2.gif

crazy volatility