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  • #650,421
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:59am Jun 1, 2012 4:59am
Quoting Goldflake
Yes. Now it is very safe to buy rather than short. Give it a week time. It will pay nicely.
But why do you think so?
  • #650,422
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:00am Jun 1, 2012 5:00am
Quoting forextraderx
I don't know Esssex.... being the low liquidity pre NFP market, with some decent options set to expire around the 2350 (which may pull price until NFP).... but without a doubt the bids set between 2315-2300 are significant pre-NFP.

Afterward, depending on what the number is... it COULD be the low... or the market could cut through those bids like a bullet through a glass window.

but, pre NFP.... i would not want to short anywhere under 2350

your thoughts?

P.S. ah, you specificed scalping. Ok... i may scalp both ways pre NFP..
Yup scalp only today til NFP. Heh.

I won't actually scalp longs here because based on fundamentals and correlation there are still downside risks. The chance that I may get slapped with a breakout on the downside is still apparent.

So to play it safe, scalp short between the levels 40-15.
  • #650,423
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:04am Jun 1, 2012 5:04am
Quoting forextraderx
But why do you think so?
Just look at DAX yesterday closing. anyway, i got buy entry with my strategy. I'm just sharing my entry here. Should retrace safely till 1.26 zone.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #650,424
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:09am Jun 1, 2012 5:09am
Quoting Esssex
Yup scalp only today til NFP. Heh.

I won't actually scalp longs here because based on fundamentals and correlation there are still downside risks. The chance that I may get slapped with a breakout on the downside is still apparent.

So to play it safe, scalp short.

Ok, i mean, all things being equal I see your point... but considering the pre NFP liquidity... it is highly unlikely to see a break in either direction.... simply because when liquidity enters the market in massive proportions the moment the NFP report comes out, It will push the market right back to where a significant block of orders is.

and you see, if we DO break to the downside before NFP... that "significant block of orders" will very likely be in the form of losing longs who want to cover at or around the point of the breakout.

Why does this matter? because if your the guy selling right now to push the market down.... there is a much, MUCH higher than usual likleyhood that any profit you see on a "breakout" will be erased once the NFP number comes out, and the market pushes it's way back into a significant area of orders (most likely back where it broke out from)

Furthermore, there is approx $50,000,000 - $100,000,000 + of option value at the 2300 price.... and therefore a very large sum of bids sitting barely above it... to help guarantee that the 2300 level doesn't get hit until a good profit has been made on the buy orders taht are right now keeping price above the 2300 level. So... this means, price will probably have to move up for them to cover those buy orders...before they let it drop to the 2300 level.

Now, this does not mean they will be successful! but... when someone has 9 or 10 figures tied up around a price level...tahts good enough for me to believe they will do anything they can to keep price away from that level, AND make a profit while doing so.

X
  • #650,425
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:10am Jun 1, 2012 5:10am
Quoting Goldflake
Just look at DAX yesterday closing. anyway, i got buy entry with my strategy. I'm just sharing my entry here. Should retrace safely till 1.26 zone.
so it's super secret strategy.

Ok.. well, that doesn't answer my question in the slightest.

but good luck with that.

X
  • #650,426
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:22am Jun 1, 2012 5:22am
[quote=forextraderx;5719709]


Furthermore, there is approx $50,000,000 - $100,000,000 + of option value at the 2300 price.... and therefore a very large sum of bids sitting barely above it... to help guarantee that the 2300 level doesn't get hit until a good profit has been made on the buy orders taht are right now keeping price above the 2300 level. So... this means, price will probably have to move up for them to cover those buy orders...before they let it drop to the 2300 level.


Forextraderx, could I ask how you get your options data?
  • #650,427
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:23am Jun 1, 2012 5:23am
Also Esssex.... something else i'm just noticing looking at this eur/usd...

the buy orders could be placed as close as 2-3 pips above the 2300 level, and they could have stops below that at just a few pips away (like, 4-5 pips down).... and this would generate a much better risk:reward ratio for such a trade that is taken primarily in defense of their big investment....

So it makes me wonder... if this is defensive buying... why would it be happening so far above where it would need to? I mean... from here...they need price to see 2330-2335 to recoup costs (at least I would think....)

So, there are a few possibilities, and most of which I'm not gonna go into because they would be more than I care to get into now... but I think taht by supporting price here, it keeps the charts looking as they might want to encourage buying from the intraday technicians.... (thus providing them benefit without using their own capital)....

or they have staged a bit of an early defense, to create the illusion that this is NOT defensive buying... and thus attempt to sow a seed of doubt in the minds of larger, informed, sophisticated players that "if we get through this level... we still have to deal with more around 2305ish....hmm...maybe best not to sell"

I'm really just thinking outloud... but what I'm seeing here is a big on the early side, and I'm trying to figure out if any of my speculations hold water...and if so , which ones (and how much water exactly...?)

anyone who has any possibly insightful thoughts on this, feel free to chime in.

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  • #650,428
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:26am Jun 1, 2012 5:26am
Quoting forextraderx
so it's super secret strategy.

Ok.. well, that doesn't answer my question in the slightest.

but good luck with that.

X
Retrace safely with NFP in 2 hours... euhm right!
  • #650,429
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:31am Jun 1, 2012 5:31am
[quote=Jfk;5719776]
Quoting forextraderx


Furthermore, there is approx $50,000,000 - $100,000,000 + of option value at the 2300 price.... and therefore a very large sum of bids sitting barely above it... to help guarantee that the 2300 level doesn't get hit until a good profit has been made on the buy orders taht are right now keeping price above the 2300 level. So... this means, price will probably have to move up for them to cover those buy orders...before they let it drop to the 2300 level.


Forextraderx, could I ask how you get your options data?
Ahh...now that's MY super secret strategy.

Actually, forexfactory has stuff up from time to time... and there are other websites.... actionforex.com sometimes does.

also, a live newsfeed from IFR market relay and Dow Jones is how I get about half of it...the rest from other sites like what i just mentioned.

Also, as to the size, I actually am just taking a complete guess....but barriers are almost always in the 9 figures...i've even seen some upwards of billions. And the smallest I can recall is about 25 million.... so i think it's a safe guess.

As to how exactly I believed 2315 would be about the spot where a defensive buying is staged? well, I saw price dropping like a rock...and at 2315ish... it suddenly stopped as if it hit a brick wall. I mean. if stopped. for 2-3 seconds...it didn't bounce, it just stopped.

That denotes large limit bid orders at a set price absorbing offers that are being executed at market.

I knew about the 2300 option from earlier today (or yesterday),

I know liquidity is reduced on NFP days before the report comes out, and that this would very likely increase the probability that an option defense would be effective (because low liquidity means less sell orders for their buy orders to absorb)

And finally, knowing it all revolves around pre-nfp...I even have some sort of time frame from which to expect such a opportunity to play itself out...

hope this covers the bases.... yes?

X
  • #650,430
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:32am Jun 1, 2012 5:32am
Quoting forextraderx
Also Esssex.... something else i'm just noticing looking at this eur/usd...

the buy orders could be placed as close as 2-3 pips above the 2300 level, and they could have stops below that at just a few pips away (like, 4-5 pips down).... and this would generate a much better risk:reward ratio for such a trade that is taken primarily in defense of their big investment....

So it makes me wonder... if this is defensive buying... why would it be happening so far above where it would need to? I mean... from here...they need price to see 2330-2335...
Price frequently sits above/ below a big figure, then the run begins. Is it a question of drawing buyers in before the push below 2300?
  • #650,431
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:33am Jun 1, 2012 5:33am
[quote=forextraderx;5719808]
Quoting Jfk

Ahh...now that's MY super secret strategy.

Actually, forexfactory has stuff up from time to time... and there are other websites.... actionforex.com sometimes does.

also, a live newsfeed from IFR market relay and Dow Jones is how I get about half of it...the rest from other sites like what i just mentioned.

Also, as to the size, I actually am just taking a complete guess....but barriers are almost always in the 9 figures...i've even seen some upwards of billions. And the smallest I can recall is about 25 million.......
Cheers! So IFR/ Dow through Oanda?
  • #650,432
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:35am Jun 1, 2012 5:35am
Quoting F-Rex
Retrace safely with NFP in 2 hours... euhm right!
Well..he said within a couple weeks... so, nfp or not he may be correct....

and there are SOME reasons this may happen... I just believe there are many, many more this will not.

but i guess we'll never know exactly what he thinks is transpiring. oh well.

X
  • #650,433
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:42am Jun 1, 2012 5:42am
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  • #650,434
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:42am Jun 1, 2012 5:42am
On High Time frame EURUSD price congested in massive triangle range and now we can see price breakouts this patter, will wait see if price bounce back in to massive range else we can see huge drop from here and we can expect price move still lower till 1.1XXX

Below Screen Snap on Weekly Time Frame
http://clip2net.com/clip/m133561/133...754da-23kb.gif
  • #650,435
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:44am Jun 1, 2012 5:44am
Quoting Jfk
Price frequently sits above/ below a big figure, then the run begins. Is it a question of drawing buyers in before the push below 2300?
Ya... I thought this too.... though if we are thinking the same thing, it seemed almost a bit too sophisticated to be effective...

I mean...they would have to start buying enough to create the illusion of real support... which in todays market conditions would be easier to do than on most days....

but, it's a dangerous game...because if other buyers don't come in and take over the buying for you...particularly with market orders.... then you have no way to sell back what you just invested to support the market (nevermind what you need to sell above 2320ish to make sure your stop at 2299.9 makes back whatever your gonna lose on the premium for the option)

So basically it's like having 10 apples to sell... but instead you buy 5 MORE apples in hopes that others see you and all decide to go crazy and kick off an apple buying frenzy.... at which point you can sell back the 10 you staretd with, plus the other 5 you used to create the frenzy...and maybe a few more just for extra profits.

Buying when you need to sell in such a strong trending market taht is supported by fundi's and senti's is a dangerous game indeed....

if it wasn't for the lack of liquidity created by the upcoming NFP.... I would think such a strategy would be suicide.

That is, unless they foresaw this risk ahead of time... and started selling around 2400.... made their profit, and now are just covering that short at a strategic point in an attempt to maybe get a small rally an make even more as they sell into it.

Sometimes it's just a big poker game between large size operators.

And they love days like this...when no one will likely interfere with their game for the next hour or 2.

X
  • #650,436
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:46am Jun 1, 2012 5:46am
Quoting forextraderx
Ok, i mean, all things being equal I see your point... but considering the pre NFP liquidity... it is highly unlikely to see a break in either direction.... simply because when liquidity enters the market in massive proportions the moment the NFP report comes out, It will push the market right back to where a significant block of orders is.

and you see, if we DO break to the downside before NFP... that "significant block of orders" will very likely be in the form of losing longs who want to cover at or around the point of the breakout.

Why...
An awareness of the 23 level is a good thing. Wether or not it holds in a down trending , market is a completely different thing. Fundamentals arent there to support a big bull movement I think a lot of people will be happy sitting it out but I can't see to many joining in with it. But saying that I like a good pull back in the market makes the moves bigger and fresher everyone knows its going to go down a long way. So... I have always been told not to fight the market. Go with it. May be a lot of bids but it's came down a long way in a month. My guts telling me your going to need a lot more to slow it let alone stop it for a period of time
  • #650,437
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:48am Jun 1, 2012 5:48am
[quote=Jfk;5719820]
Quoting forextraderx

Cheers! So IFR/ Dow through Oanda?
A good portion of it yes.

But, i've not yet fouhnd a single service that really has everything...and that makes sense in fact, as different writers and reports and financial firms have different access to different order books, information, etc.

The best thing to do is surf the web, comb this site for info, and others.

twitter is a good place too.

make a list of every place you can find... and then just go through them all as the day begins.
  • #650,438
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:51am Jun 1, 2012 5:51am
Quoting tightscalper
An awareness of the 23 level is a good thing. Wether or not it holds in a down trending , market is a completely different thing. Fundamentals arent there to support a big bull movement I think a lot of people will be happy sitting it out but I can't see to many joining in with it. But saying that I like a good pull back in the market makes the moves bigger and fresher everyone knows its going to go down a long way. So... I have always been told not to fight the market. Go with it. May be a lot of bids but it's came down a long way in a month. My...
In general I agree with you 100%. and, if this was any other day besides a pre-nfp day....where big players are mostly holding back taking trades until the number is released...I would say I would not consider such information anything other than information to explain why my short is moving slowly through 2300


But... it's the LACK of bigger players doing much right now that provides a window of opportunity, pre-NFP.

when NFP hits.... this opportunity will likely be erased in one second.

Does this make sense? or do you see reason to believe otherwise?
X
  • #650,439
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:59am Jun 1, 2012 5:59am
I closed my overnight long - yesterday the retracements felt different, it felt like a reversal. I've shredded my account on the rodeo these last days. it's difficult to hold on when the price explodes in both directions. I've learnt this lesson before though - not to go against the trend. I've traded with feelings lately and have lost 70% of my account. It's quite annoying.

Anyway. closed out my long, so the market is going to reverse sharply today. no doubt. good luck!
  • #650,440
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:01am Jun 1, 2012 6:01am
the yellow line was the level being protected.


By the way, if someone wants to learn more about this, I can't think of anyone other than darkstar who has done more for the retail community in regards to educating how the forex markets work with regards to options, the strategies around them, the effect they have on the markets...etc.

I haven't personally ever spoke with him, but I've seen some of what he's put up, and he has a book which is rujmored to be great.

just something to consider

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