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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #33,781
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:16am Jun 1, 2012 4:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
I guess it's their turn to catch up then.

It's very clear where we are heading eventually, but I am hoping for that correction first.

E/U H4
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E/U Daily
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I hope for a correction too but I don't think we'll get one. Once the other pairs reach extremes, those same traders will be piling on to move the E/U and E/J, no?
  • #33,782
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:17am Jun 1, 2012 4:17am
The dollar is talking with my first support now...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post5717283
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #33,783
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:17am Jun 1, 2012 4:17am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I hope for a correction too but I don't think we'll get one. Once the other pairs reach extremes, those same traders will be piling on to move the E/U and E/J, no?
Not until we see what NFP gives us. We may see some positioning before news but that should not move it much.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,784
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:21am Jun 1, 2012 4:21am
Standard Chartered - We recommend that leveraged funds buy 3M 96/91 EUR/JPY put spreads

Fri, Jun 01 2012, 11:07 CET | Interbank Talk
source: Standard Chartered

"Short EUR-JPY still looks like a good way to play elevated Greece-related concerns and safe-haven demand for JPY. Moreover, it would appear less vulnerable to the risk that the Federal Reserve may extend „Operation Twist‟ and/or expand its balance sheet again via „QE3.‟ We recommend that leveraged or funded investors buy 3M 96/91 EUR-JPY put spread (cost: JPY 130 pips, max payout: JPY 500 pips for a max payout ratio of 3.85:1, off vols of 15.8/17.9). While there is some risk of EUR-JPY exceeding 91 on the downside, we think it will be mitigated by likely Bank of Japan intervention to limit the fall in USD-JPY." Callum Henderson, global head of FX research and Thomas Costerg, Economist at Standard Chartered.


http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/imag...r-logo1-en.gif
  • #33,785
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:23am Jun 1, 2012 4:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone,

We have finally arrived in a fresh month and NFP day. The first few days of a month tend to set the tone for the rest of month. This is probably mostly due to potential changes in sentiment due to NFP numbers and CB policy shifts than anything else. So as we get the NFP number today, let's see what it does for sentiment. I do not expect a dismal number but I'm not expecting anything fantastic either. Last week I mentioned that I would be calling for 123K net jobs created in May. Let's see how close I got. I do believe the...
You may right
  • #33,786
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:23am Jun 1, 2012 4:23am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yep!

When I woke up it was like Christmas morning! And it's been getting better and better as time goes on... LOL
Hilarious looking at EJ weekly chart and not seeing any support on the left side of my screen. Have to go to the monthly chart.

I'm sure PT is probably expecting a pullback, but EJ seems to have absolutely nothing as support until 89-90 (apart from channel and fibo perhaps). May take another month to get there though.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #33,787
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:27am Jun 1, 2012 4:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not until we see what NFP gives us. We may see some positioning before news but that should not move it much.

This current price action of EU right now..was very tricky this year

For sure, the longterm one, price action and momentum was bearish

But there are some conflicted energy zone at bottom around 1.22 (eclipse)
might be occur to constrained the bear power
  • #33,788
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:31am Jun 1, 2012 4:31am
Quoting smilemiz
You may right
Remember I'm just a cute teddy bear

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,789
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:33am Jun 1, 2012 4:33am
Quoting smilemiz
This current price action of EU right now..was very tricky this year

For sure, the longterm one, price action and momentum was bearish

But there are some conflicted energy zone at bottom around 1.22 (eclipse)
might be occur to constrained the bear power
Yep. 1.2225/35 area is median target. Let's see if we get it today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,790
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:33am Jun 1, 2012 4:33am
Quoting mka_78
I agree with you
I have a little 150 usd accound since may and just used it for scalping res and sup pullback and guess what? Now its 470 equity
200% in one month wow. Congrats that is impressive. Now let's see if you can keep that gain throughout June, that will be the real challenge.

Just make sure your risk per trade isn't too high, or when you lose 10 trades in a row, it's going to kill your account.

He who can make 3-5% gains in a day with a 1% daily stop loss is probably among the best FX traders in the world.

Unrealistic to do it everyday, but certainly very possible to do it almost every day.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #33,791
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:34am Jun 1, 2012 4:34am
Both Citigroup and Deutsche bank say that BOE(Bank of England) will most likely extend QE after UK manufacturing PMI data next week. Keep an eye out as this could of course effect E/U. Looks like G/U already dropped 1100+ pips in May.
  • #33,792
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:37am Jun 1, 2012 4:37am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Both Citigroup and Deutsche bank say that BOE(Bank of England) will most likely extend QE after UK manufacturing PMI data next week. Keep an eye out as this could of course effect E/U. Looks like G/U already dropped 900+ pips this few weeks.
Man you bring some of the best news articles to this thread!

Where do you find all of these articles?
  • #33,793
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:37am Jun 1, 2012 4:37am
Might be bulls turn until NFP.

Would love for some profit taking and a weekend gap up
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #33,794
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:37am Jun 1, 2012 4:37am
Quoting BFSGcapital
200% in one month wow. Congrats that is impressive. Now let's see if you can keep that gain throughout June, that will be the real challenge.

Just make sure your risk per trade isn't too high, or when you lose 10 trades in a row, it's going to kill your account.

He who can make 3-5% gains in a day with a 1% daily stop loss is probably among the best FX traders in the world.

Unrealistic to do it everyday, but certainly very possible to do it almost every day.
By my calculations, in order to achieve that kind of return, one would have to be right more than 90% of the time, run tight stop losses and over-leverage themselves on each trade as well as take many trades per day... Basically, a scalper. That's just not sustainable in my view.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,795
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:38am Jun 1, 2012 4:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
Remember I'm just a cute teddy bear

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haha..
  • #33,796
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:40am Jun 1, 2012 4:40am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Man you bring some of the best news articles to this thread!

Where do you find all of these articles?
Breaking news wires. No articles. Paid service. Although I scour through everything like a pack of wild Raccoon.
  • #33,797
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:40am Jun 1, 2012 4:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
By my calculations, in order to achieve that kind of return, one would have to be right more than 90% of the time, run tight stop losses and over-leverage themselves on each trade as well as take many trades per day... Basically, a scalper. That's just not sustainable in my view.
20 pip stop loss, 60 pip target, 5x leverage.

Quite realistic (not saying it's easy), but you would have to be right a lot, and nail the tops and bottoms so you don't get stop hunted. Or combine a 40 pip move with a 20 pip scalp, etc.

But I was just saying 3-5% per day because that seems to be about what he averaged for the month of May.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #33,798
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:40am Jun 1, 2012 4:40am
hi all

just reminder 4 +5 th are bank holiday in uk

some effect on currencies?
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #33,799
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:42am Jun 1, 2012 4:42am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Might be bulls turn until NFP.

Would love for some profit taking and a weekend gap up
Would be nice, but like I said... wait for NFP. That will determine if we get a correction before heading lower.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,800
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:43am Jun 1, 2012 4:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. 1.2225/35 area is median target. Let's see if we get it today.

Hmm... Exactly for that level..

But afraid to jump off to be more lower... It is...
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