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  • #650,381
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:38am Jun 1, 2012 3:38am
Quoting forextraderx
Well thanks Cat, nice of you to say so. ya know, after years of market involvement, thousands of hours of screen time, hundereds of books, countless forum studies, dozens of debates, tens of thousands of dollars of losses, and a few thousand more spent...

and an untold number of beliefs and points of view that have mostly died in some unimaginably painful manner...

a fella actually might learn a thing or two about this trading thing.


X

P.S. The gift certificate I promised you for "public support" is in the mail....
I believe every word, and I'm sure there are many reading that post who can empathise with you 100%. I look forward to reading more of your posts in the future.
  • #650,382
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:38am Jun 1, 2012 3:38am
So, I see only chance to stop falling EU at 1,1875, there is a very strong support, so I don't think we can break it, for now only SELL, there are a lot of speculations so we must to help them.
  • #650,383
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:41am Jun 1, 2012 3:41am
Markets are ranging between 65-25.

Just keep short scalping til NFP. Long scalps are pretty dangerous at this point of time as a break down is still on the cards.

Pips for all!
  • #650,384
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:42am Jun 1, 2012 3:42am
I agree, is very dangerous to scalp long...

remember the trend is your friend! never forget!
  • #650,385
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:44am Jun 1, 2012 3:44am
Quoting tomspin
900 pips and counting since the beggining of the drop - this is why I want to become a longer term trader eventually. Not to be smart ass now in such an "easy" market as there are not many opportunities like this but you realise how much less hassle trading could be - simple set and forget trading with adding positions as things proggress.
My plan for the next 2 years is to be able to catch those swings and have a two accounts, one for those long term trades - call it saving acc and the other for day trading and always with direction of that...
Personally, I'm not done with what I want to acheive via my shorter term intraday stuff yet... but i'm sure in the next few years, the longer term plays will look bettter than they do today, on acount of me not wainting to spend 12 hours a day at a screen.

This gbp move was actually probably the low risk trade of the month....

the COT readings showed commercials more net short than I can remember at any time in years, coupled with the fundamental reasons being the UK and it's proximity to the EZ bomb.... not to mention their balance sheets holding the other end of much of the PIIGS debts....

combine that with the fact that just before the massive break (which was technically very obvious).... the COT report came out showing that GBP/USD longs actually INCREASED as price fell to may 15th lows....

this is a sure sign that the market doesn't believe the price action, and sets up the motherF'er of all "longsqueezes".

Then, as price drops, and sentiment actually switches to bearish.... you see what lookd like a lead balloon falling suddenly becomes a lead balloon filled with cement.

it looks like the move from 5700 to now.

The next phase is some profit taking... and then some more selling...although not as vigirous.... something like a 45-55 degree angle one a chart... probably make 3-5 substantial bottoms... then range for a whlie.

At this point... you can assume that the imbalance between beliefs and actual positions being held are somewhat equalized... and "normal" market behavior will likely resume...though no way to know whether it will actually move up or not...that depends on too many other factors... although some degree of retracement is highly likely

Moves like what we are seeing in the gbp/usd is a result of an enormous amount of people having positions on the wrong side of the market... AND an initial disbelief that the initial move down is anything other than a pullback for the next move up.

Of course, that's when it breaks without retracement, without remorse...and without any bottom anywhere to be seen for miles.

I find it helpful to consider the mentality of the market participants I compete with... it gives me a better understanding of why things are moving like they are, and what to expect next.

X
  • #650,386
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:45am Jun 1, 2012 3:45am
Quoting tomspin
900 pips and counting since the beggining of the drop - this is why I want to become a longer term trader eventually. Not to be smart ass now in such an "easy" market as there are not many opportunities like this but you realise how much less hassle trading could be - simple set and forget trading with adding positions as things proggress.
My plan for the next 2 years is to be able to catch those swings and have a two accounts, one for those long term trades - call it saving acc and the other for day trading and always with direction of that...
I do this at the moment. Once you have opened your long term trade, you just have to try to ignore. I totally agree that with your Short term account, you should focus on trading in the same direction as the Long term account.

Sofar its going good here, good luck with it!
  • #650,387
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:52am Jun 1, 2012 3:52am
COT reports are priceless I didn't know about them - found out after Peter Bain old seminars about PP. Which part of the report is most important is it institutional? commercial? does it vary in different scenarios?
swing it!
  • #650,388
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:53am Jun 1, 2012 3:53am
here's a pic of what i'm talking about regarding the GBP/USD and what i'tll very likely do as this drop finds "support"
Attached Image
  • #650,389
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:55am Jun 1, 2012 3:55am
Quoting F-Rex
I do this at the moment. Once you have opened your long term trade, you just have to try to ignore. I totally agree that with your Short term account, you should focus on trading in the same direction as the Long term account.

Sofar its going good here, good luck with it!
This is actually a great time to test such a strategy and I think it could do miracles if you know what you are doing, let us know how it is going for you.
swing it!
  • #650,390
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:02am Jun 1, 2012 4:02am
Quoting tomspin
COT reports are priceless I didn't know about them - found out after Peter Bain old seminars about PP. Which part of the report is most important is it institutional? commercial? does it vary in different scenarios?

Regarding COT.... here is a link i've found basically everything that I personally use with regards to COT analysis. Othe folks get really into it... not me. But, I will say without any hesitation that for long term, multi month, 500 -1000 pip + moves, there is no other method of analysis or indicator that compares with what can be gotten out of the COT report.

I use this site for cot info: http://www.timingcharts.com/

I pay extra special attention to the blue line.

here is a link that basically sums up exactly how I look at COT data...and it works really really well for my purposes.

http://www.timingcharts.com/content/...et-commercials

Also, if you wanna get other ideas of what works, or at least what works for me and how I personally trade... here's a link to my journal.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=364409

X
  • #650,391
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:02am Jun 1, 2012 4:02am
Glad I entered short EUR/JPY earlier on.

Now the green number is getting bigger.
  • #650,392
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:05am Jun 1, 2012 4:05am
btw...looks like some barrier defense around the 2315 level....
i have a long at 2310, 13 pip stop, 26 target. the nice thing about barrier options in a low liquidity situation... they are very often defended until liquidity kicks back up.

A nice predictable edge that can allow for razor sharp stops... my favorite type of edge.

X
  • #650,393
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:05am Jun 1, 2012 4:05am
http://nowandfutures.com/cot.html I usually look at this site a very clear and easy to read charts

About euro atm
I've got to targets for today
conservative - 12255
optymistic - 12228
swing it!
  • #650,394
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:06am Jun 1, 2012 4:06am
this is just amazingggggggggggggggggggggg
  • #650,395
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:09am Jun 1, 2012 4:09am
Well, I actually think we have a darn good reason for support above 2300, until NFP comes out... too bad i'm not trading it. but if i was, i'd be long from 2315, and again at 2310 and 2305.... with stops just under 2300.... targeting 2335+
  • #650,396
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:12am Jun 1, 2012 4:12am
Quoting tomspin
900 pips and counting since the beggining of the drop - this is why I want to become a longer term trader eventually. Not to be smart ass now in such an "easy" market as there are not many opportunities like this but you realise how much less hassle trading could be - simple set and forget trading with adding positions as things proggress.
My plan for the next 2 years is to be able to catch those swings and have a two accounts, one for those long term trades - call it saving acc and the other for day trading and always with direction of that...
i will helped you, your 1st 1000pip trade you will wonder why the hell you ever looked under 4hr tf
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #650,397
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:14am Jun 1, 2012 4:14am
Quoting kibescorp
Glad I entered short EUR/JPY earlier on.

Now the green number is getting bigger.
Your avatar is Chinese actress He Zhue Yan?
  • #650,398
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:18am Jun 1, 2012 4:18am
Quoting forextraderx
isn't "retail stops" an oxymoron?

X
  • #650,399
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:23am Jun 1, 2012 4:23am
Quoting kaka_ht
Your avatar is Chinese actress He Zhuo Yan?
Wow! Good eye!

It is indeed Zhang Ji Zhong's baby. In her most recent role as Lady Earth Flow.

I searched for somewhere where it could have alluded to that name, but I don't believe so, which means you geniunely recognized her from that 65x65 pixel pic.

Impressive.
  • #650,400
  • Jun 1, 2012 4:24am Jun 1, 2012 4:24am
Quoting KiwiTrada
i will helped you, your 1st 1000pip trade you will wonder why the hell you ever looked under 4hr tf
I know Bro, I do have another MT and just H1 upwards on it, I started my FX journey with Daily and that helped me a lot, waiting for setup might be a bit painfull for some but end results are great. personally I cannot wait for this freefall to finaly break there will be a fantastic opportunities across the board when risk will be back in the game, gold, carrie trades with NZ an AU ahh just can't wait for it
swing it!
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