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  • #650,361
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:55am Jun 1, 2012 2:55am
Quoting Nachiket
let me warn you today is not the day for shorts specially when NFP is around. They will take away all the shorts in one wave is my feeling. I have warned some people yesterday about this and i am not taking any position on eur/usd until i see that big short covering.

Could well be a big short covering rally at some point. Best to be nimble.
  • #650,362
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:59am Jun 1, 2012 2:59am
Quoting Nachiket
let me warn you today is not the day for shorts specially when NFP is around. They will take away all the shorts in one wave is my feeling. I have warned some people yesterday about this and i am not taking any position on eur/usd until i see that big short covering.
Well, that may very well be the case... I'm sure a lot of folks around feel similar... particularly due to the relentless selling of eur and buying of DX and JPY right now... the safe havens are pretty expensive at this moment, and with it being NFP friday and all, profit taking may become the major theme...


that being said, seems the commerzbank order book has supply up around 2365+, and there is no real equalization of orders until their limit order book finally evens out... down at around 2120.

not to mention that E/U puts, for the first time since we've seen this recent drop showed more interest in them than eur/usd calls...

this suggests that the market, in reality, is JUST NOW "mostly" bearish on the e/u for the future....

The thing about blow off tops and bottoms... is they really, really do go sometimes much, much further than most would have guessed.

I agree a potential short squeeze is a possibility, but as someone told me the other day "when it happens, it'll be obvious" And I remembered otherse in the past...and they're right. it'll smack everyone in the face.... You won't have to wonder "this could be it!"

It'll be more like

"I cant believe were still moving up... this is absolutly incredible! who would be buying this!?"

Anyway, unless something particularly juicy shows up for a quick scalp to the longside, i'll bee looking short until NFP, and likley for many days afterward.

X
  • #650,363
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:00am Jun 1, 2012 3:00am
Prices are below SMA 100 now....going down...
  • #650,364
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:03am Jun 1, 2012 3:03am
No man land for me, awaiting breakout from 1,2320
swing it!
  • #650,365
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:04am Jun 1, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Nachiket
I never said short covering. there are can be genuine buying. after short covering prices come back to where they started from.
Im still shorting personally, even today if i see another opportunity, but only scalping this time.
  • #650,366
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:04am Jun 1, 2012 3:04am
Quoting tomspin
No man land for me, awaiting breakout from 1,2320
Tell me about it. This is absolutely nuts.

Big money, make up your mind already!
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #650,367
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:06am Jun 1, 2012 3:06am
Quoting forextraderx
Well, that may very well be the case... I'm sure a lot of folks around feel similar... particularly due to the relentless selling of eur and buying of DX and JPY right now... the safe havens are pretty expensive at this moment, and with it being NFP friday and all, profit taking may become the major theme...


that being said, seems the commerzbank order book has supply up around 2365+, and there is no real equalization of orders until their limit order book finally evens out... down at around 2120.

not to mention that E/U puts, for the...
same with you
  • #650,368
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:07am Jun 1, 2012 3:07am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Tell me about it. This is absolutely nuts.

Big money, make up your mind already!
Cabel moving much better today about 100 pips to "bottom" left.
swing it!
  • #650,369
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:07am Jun 1, 2012 3:07am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Tell me about it. This is absolutely nuts.

Big money, make up your mind already!
I guess the big boys are using options and just playing the volatility. If retail is extremely short then they'll no doubt want to shaft them (us) at some point. A low vol day, like today (and given date etc) could be a good time for the 'bear trap' to be executed. We've breached y low twice already. Question then becomes 'where are all the retail stops?'
  • #650,370
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:09am Jun 1, 2012 3:09am
Quoting Nachiket
I never said short covering. there are can be genuine buying. after short covering prices come back to where they started from.

Well Nach... not to completely disagree with you... but, no. there really won't be genuine buying until there is very good reason to believe the euro zone won't fall into a depression, or better yet, that the euro itself will stay in it's current form and somehow they learned to grow moneytrees to fund the debts that will rip it apart.

Remember, due to the overall economic problems that the EZ nations are experiencing.... the trend right now is for investors to be dumping euro zone stocks, other various paper assets, and shortly, even the ironclad Bund will falter and yields will rise...as german economy wouldn't look so good if half of the notes it holds are supposed to be paid by greece, spain, italy...etc. (which is exactly the case....)

Remember, all those assets are priced in euros.

And I don't knwo about you, but i'd rater have my money in ANY OTHER asset class than something priced in euros right now.

There is no underlying fundamental reason for large traders to speculate on the euro, and it seems every day, the underlying commerce taht drives the euro economy in the first place is suffering, shrinking, dissolving, etc.

Thus, this reduces the need for investment dollars, as well as greatly reduces the number of viable economic alternatives to non-EZ assets.

What i'm trying to say is...we have a negative feedback loop going on here... and at thist point it is really just feeding on itself in every way, from the jobs available, to the loans given, to the stock market valuations, to the bond yields, to the EURO/USD spot rate.

In short, there really is no one out there buying the euro, except maybe a few retail gamblers, and some banks shoring up their reserve requirements... (which, is actually less euro intensive than ever before...and this trend is accellerating)

X
  • #650,371
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:11am Jun 1, 2012 3:11am
1.2340 is a first line to break
  • #650,372
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:15am Jun 1, 2012 3:15am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Tell me about it. This is absolutely nuts.

Big money, make up your mind already!
Nothings going to happen until NFP. It almost never does...and with such large committments regarding postions in the market currently, NFP will likely be a VERY significant influence on which way things break.

Personally, I tend to think no matter what, the euro will be sold (unless NFP is shockingly bad, well below any expectations...then the possibility of a QE on hte horizon may discourage a crazy dollar binge.... but shorting eur/jpy would be an absolute no brainer in this case)

BUt ya.. until then, don't expect any strong move, and especially don't expect any strong move to hold without a serious retracement.

X
  • #650,373
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:16am Jun 1, 2012 3:16am
Quoting Jfk
I guess the big boys are using options and just playing the volatility. If retail is extremely short then they'll no doubt want to shaft them (us) at some point. A low vol day, like today (and given date etc) could be a good time for the 'bear trap' to be executed. We've breached y low twice already. Question then becomes 'where are all the retail stops?'
isn't "retail stops" an oxymoron?

X
  • #650,374
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:18am Jun 1, 2012 3:18am
Quoting tomspin
Cabel moving much better today about 100 pips to "bottom" left.
Ya, it's much less oversold than the eur/usd is... to be honest wish i watched it more closely overall... as i feel i've missed some fantastic opportunities by watching primarily EU

X
  • #650,375
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:22am Jun 1, 2012 3:22am
Quoting forextraderx
Nothings going to happen until NFP. It almost never does...and with such large committments regarding postions in the market currently, NFP will likely be a VERY significant influence on which way things break.

Personally, I tend to think no matter what, the euro will be sold (unless NFP is shockingly bad, well below any expectations...then the possibility of a QE on hte horizon may discourage a crazy dollar binge.... but shorting eur/jpy would be an absolute no brainer in this case)

BUt ya.. until then, don't expect any strong move, and especially...
Great couple of posts there, insightful and knowledgeable. Shows that sometimes, ff forums can be the source of good, objective information by those who do actually know what they are talking about.
  • #650,376
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:23am Jun 1, 2012 3:23am
Quoting Jfk
I guess the big boys are using options and just playing the volatility. If retail is extremely short then they'll no doubt want to shaft them (us) at some point. A low vol day, like today (and given date etc) could be a good time for the 'bear trap' to be executed. We've breached y low twice already. Question then becomes 'where are all the retail stops?'
I thought we already saw the bear trap but who knows. We could break the lows from here.

Retail stops are above 1.262 probably. Or at least they should be, if they got good entries.

I hope we get a retrace to that point... but certainly doesn't seem likely.

Sometimes I feel like the best retrace we can hope for is consolidation.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #650,377
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:25am Jun 1, 2012 3:25am
Quoting forextraderx
Ya, it's much less oversold than the eur/usd is... to be honest wish i watched it more closely overall... as i feel i've missed some fantastic opportunities by watching primarily EU

X
900 pips and counting since the beggining of the drop - this is why I want to become a longer term trader eventually. Not to be smart ass now in such an "easy" market as there are not many opportunities like this but you realise how much less hassle trading could be - simple set and forget trading with adding positions as things proggress.
My plan for the next 2 years is to be able to catch those swings and have a two accounts, one for those long term trades - call it saving acc and the other for day trading and always with direction of that first acc. Working on it. I hope I'll have a guts to realise it.
swing it!
  • #650,378
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:27am Jun 1, 2012 3:27am
Quoting forextraderx
Nothings going to happen until NFP. It almost never does...and with such large committments regarding postions in the market currently, NFP will likely be a VERY significant influence on which way things break.

Personally, I tend to think no matter what, the euro will be sold (unless NFP is shockingly bad, well below any expectations...then the possibility of a QE on hte horizon may discourage a crazy dollar binge.... but shorting eur/jpy would be an absolute no brainer in this case)

BUt ya.. until then, don't expect any strong move, and especially...

Good points.

Seems that nothing will stop EurJPY on its way to 89-90 area.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #650,379
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:28am Jun 1, 2012 3:28am
Quoting Nachiket
its fallen 1050 pips in 1 month.
it gained for a period of more than 7 days massively before april ends, and plunge dramatically in may end.
  • #650,380
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:28am Jun 1, 2012 3:28am
Quoting cat
Great couple of posts there, insightful and knowledgeable. Shows that sometimes, ff forums can be the source of good, objective information by those who do actually know what they are talking about.
Well thanks Cat, nice of you to say so. ya know, after years of market involvement, thousands of hours of screen time, hundereds of books, countless forum studies, dozens of debates, tens of thousands of dollars of losses, and a few thousand more spent...

and an untold number of beliefs and points of view that have mostly died in some unimaginably painful manner...

a fella actually might learn a thing or two about this trading thing.


X

P.S. The gift certificate I promised you for "public support" is in the mail....
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