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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #33,681
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:09am Jun 1, 2012 12:09am
Good morning all!

Just heard in the news, that the result of the irish poll will not be released before today evening CET. The counting just begins in some hours.
It looks, as only the half of the eligible voters gave their vote, and a "Yes" is not quite sure yet.
If it will be a "No", i think, that will be the last step to 1.22xx....for now.
What´s your opinion?
A nice and pipful day to all of you!
  • #33,682
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:12am Jun 1, 2012 12:12am
  •  gil
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: try to master himself first | 63 Posts
Quoting ejiexe
I see 0.991x before any significant correction. Remember trying to pick bottom or top is like ...... (someone should help to complete it)
Like this?
Attached Image
  • #33,683
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:14am Jun 1, 2012 12:14am
Quoting mahogany
Good morning all!

Just heard in the news, that the result of the irish poll will not be released before today evening CET. The counting just begins in some hours.
It looks, as only the half of the eligible voters gave their vote, and a "Yes" is not quite sure yet.
If it will be a "No", i think, that will be the last step to 1.22xx....for now.
What´s your opinion?
A nice and pipful day to all of you!
My understanding was that the Irish Poll was basically a guarantee YES. Which would have not done much to the upside of the EUR/USD.

However, the slight chance that it is NO will send the EUR plunging down even further.

Maybe somebody else who is in the know can help us to understand the potential reactions of the Irish poll.
  • #33,684
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:57am Jun 1, 2012 12:57am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Kauai, the Garden Isle, very nice place.

LOL

My good friend works with the "101 Things To Do" so we get discounts on all the Hotels, Rental Cars, and Tourist Activities.
Good evening / morning 100pips,

Many thanks -I will keep that in mind

1st day of the month and NFP day - trade safe!
  • #33,685
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:04am Jun 1, 2012 1:04am
Quoting HombreAlto
Good evening / morning 100pips,

Many thanks -I will keep that in mind

1st day of the month and NFP day - trade safe!
Good evening / morning to you as well sir.

I don't think I'll be opening any new orders. Just going to keep an eye on the open positions.
  • #33,686
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:09am Jun 1, 2012 1:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=365362

Of this link doesn't work....I suck
  • #33,687
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:17am Jun 1, 2012 1:17am
Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
June 1, 2012 at 05:34 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids/tech support 1.2320/30 (1.2324 Asia low) and 1.2300/10 ahead of 1.2300 barrier. Offers 1.2390/00 and 1.2420/30
GBP/USD: Bids 1.5360/70, sell stops just below ahead of more bids 1.5320/30, tech supp 1.5275/85. Offers 1.5400/10 and 1.5425/35
EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8015/20, 0.7995/000 and tech sup 0.7975/80. Tech res 0.8055/60
USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/20 (possibly official) ahead of a 78.00 barrier, with sell stops just below, offers 78.60/70 (78.61 200 DMA) and 78.80/90, buy stops through 79.00
EUR/JPY: Offers 97.00/70, sell stops down through 96.45 and 96.00
EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35
USD/CHF: Tech res 0.9745/50 and 0.9775/85, Bids 0.9690/00 and 0.9665/70
AUD/USD: Bids 0.9650/60, suggested sell stops through 0.9645, offers 0.9690/00 and 0.9715/25
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #33,688
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:38am Jun 1, 2012 1:38am
Good morning everyone,

We have finally arrived in a fresh month and NFP day. The first few days of a month tend to set the tone for the rest of month. This is probably mostly due to potential changes in sentiment due to NFP numbers and CB policy shifts than anything else. So as we get the NFP number today, let's see what it does for sentiment. I do not expect a dismal number but I'm not expecting anything fantastic either. Last week I mentioned that I would be calling for 123K net jobs created in May. Let's see how close I got. I do believe the consensus is around 150K. There might even be a revision from last month's number so that would be important to watch for also. The most important number to watch out for is the unemployment rate. A drop of just 0.1% in the rate would be quite risk positive. How all this affects the USD at this point is the big question mark. The USD is already King of the currencies so additional gains on a good NFP number may be limited. In fact if risk sentiment returns I expect capital to move out of US bonds and into equities and other risk assets so that may reverse some of the USD gains we saw in May. With the doom and gloom in Europe right now, I'm not betting on any major risk-on sentiment at all. In fact I think any risk-on action we see will be mostly due to short covering. Obviously a bad NFP number (under 100K) is going to send the markets into a further tailspin and send the Japanese Yen soaring against all assets. This could spur on a round of intervention by the BOJ if things get really bad. However, anyone who has been around long enough knows very well how effective any BOJ intervention would be... Kamakaziiii... Poof!!! all done, nothing to see here, move on now. Certainly not the same style as the SNB.

Looking at my E/U H4 chart, my view since last time has not changed. I still expect price to hit my first target of 1.2225/35 area. The only question now is if we get a little retrace up towards 1.2500 first. The chances are not good that we will but one should never underestimate the violent power behind a panic short covering (also known as panic buy). The Euro is very heavily short right now due to the dismal circumstances and any sign of potential good news, no matter how false it may be, may in fact cause the nervous shorts to cover. This may give us a nice enough retrace to load up on some fresh shorts. In such an event, it would be wise to try and pick where a retrace would take us. Price is currently sitting at the bottom of the falling channel, has broken the 261.8% fibo level and is due to visit and test the 55 period ema. A confluence of the 261.8, 55 ema and the channel resistance is a perfect spot to short (if it makes it that far or even tries). A 150 pip correction is not too much to ask for so I do expect it to happen. Unfortunately what I expect and what will actually happen are two very different things.

Anyway, let's see how it all plays out. This is decision time. Trade safe all.

E/U H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 53 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,689
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:38am Jun 1, 2012 1:38am
Quoting 100PipsADay
What is this telling us? Downward movement in the Dollar Index?
Doji candlestick forms when market is indecisive...Prices go up and down because of two things,supply and demand or selling and buying. When there is more selling than buying, market is bearish and price goes down and visa versa (bullish market).When the price goes up and down for a period of time, but then goes back to the level that it was at the beginning of the period, it means buyers and sellers or bulls and bears have the same power and none of them is stronger. When this happens at the end of a bearish market that there were stronger selling activity, it means seller do not want to sell anymore. They stop selling and at the same time some of them start buying. So the price will not go down anymore and it moves around the same level for a while. It is when a Doji candlestick forms. Now, if more seller decide to buy, the price will go up and a reversal forms.A Doji candlestick is a reversal signal, but it needs confirmation. Its confirmation is the next candlestick. If the next candlestick follows the direction that the market had before the Doji formation, it means no reversing will happen and the Doji should be ignored.So we have to see today Daily close...
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #33,690
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:42am Jun 1, 2012 1:42am
Quoting quidproquo
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=365362

Of this link doesn't work....I suck
With all the neck and neck action, unless there is a very significant and consistently growing lead by one side, the market is going to ignore the polls. There has been too much BS now and the market has become immune to 3 and 6 point leads either way. The decider will be the elections on the 17th. Until then, the market will be focused on Spain and Italy. Also today we shall see what Ireland comes up with.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,691
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:44am Jun 1, 2012 1:44am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Doji candlestick forms when market is indecisive...Prices go up and down because of two things,supply and demand or selling and buying. When there is more selling than buying, market is bearish and price goes down and visa versa (bullish market).When the price goes up and down for a period of time, but then goes back to the level that it was at the beginning of the period, it means buyers and sellers or bulls and bears have the same power and none of them is stronger. When this happens at the end of a bearish market that there were stronger selling...
You've been studying. Well done
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,692
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:46am Jun 1, 2012 1:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
With all the neck and neck action, unless there is a very significant and consistently growing lead by one side, the market is going to ignore the polls. There has been too much BS now and the market has become immune to 3 and 6 point leads either way. The decider will be the elections on the 17th. Until then, the market will be focused on Spain and Italy. Also today we shall see what Ireland comes up with.
If their is nowhere to put your money but under the mattress.. that's a problem
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=365365

If this link doesn't work I suck again
  • #33,693
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:48am Jun 1, 2012 1:48am
Not that it will make much difference today, but here are the 1400 GMT option expiries

1.2500
1.2485
1.2480
1.2450
1.2350


Note that there is a barrier option at 1.2300 and the expiries are all above current price. Option expiries tend to be magnetic, so in absence of bad news, there is yet one more reason for a correction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,694
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:50am Jun 1, 2012 1:50am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Doji candlestick forms when market is indecisive...Prices go up and down because of two things,supply and demand or selling and buying. When there is more selling than buying, market is bearish and price goes down and visa versa (bullish market).When the price goes up and down for a period of time, but then goes back to the level that it was at the beginning of the period, it means buyers and sellers or bulls and bears have the same power and none of them is stronger. When this happens at the end of a bearish market that there were stronger selling...

Thanks Harpe for the detailed explanation.
  • #33,695
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:51am Jun 1, 2012 1:51am
Quoting quidproquo
If their is nowhere to put your money but under the mattress.. that's a problem
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=365365

If this link doesn't work I suck again
The German Bund rally is all about an anti-Euro trade. If the Euro breaks up and all member states revert back to their former currencies, what would you rather be holding? The Lira, Peseta and Drachma??? Or the Deutsche Mark?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #33,696
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:53am Jun 1, 2012 1:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone,

We have finally arrived in a fresh month and NFP day. The first few days of a month tend to set the tone for the rest of month. This is probably mostly due to potential changes in sentiment due to NFP numbers and CB policy shifts than anything else. So as we get the NFP number today, let's see what it does for sentiment. I do not expect a dismal number but I'm not expecting anything fantastic either. Last week I mentioned that I would be calling for 123K net jobs created in May. Let's see how close I got. I do believe...

The above is very encouraging for the E/J trade if I am understanding correctly.

1) Good US news will keep pushing EUR lower
2) Bad US news will push EUR higher but Yen will strengthen almost making the E/J neutral for the time being.

I know trading is never "black & white" but that is what I took from the above post.

By the way, nice post PT!
  • #33,697
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:56am Jun 1, 2012 1:56am
meant "there" not "their".........in previous post
  • #33,698
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:57am Jun 1, 2012 1:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
You've been studying. Well done
Thank you....Study some candles few months back....
Want to compete you oneday kidding no never you are my master so cant compete you ever ....And secondly you are more into fundamental whereas I want to be more technical trader (my belief is that mostly technicals are much more quicker to tell you the right direction before any news releases)
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #33,699
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:00am Jun 1, 2012 2:00am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Thanks Harpe for the detailed explanation.
You welcome buddy
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #33,700
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:01am Jun 1, 2012 2:01am
Quoting 100PipsADay
The above is very encouraging for the E/J trade if I am understanding correctly.

1) Good US news will keep pushing EUR lower
2) Bad US news will push EUR higher but Yen will strengthen almost making the E/J neutral for the time being.

I know trading is never "black & white" but that is what I took from the above post.

By the way, nice post PT!
Okay maybe I didn't explain well. I'll have to re-read what I posted and maybe make some corrections.

With a bad number, the EUR/JPY will plummet as well as the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD as a result may go sideways.

With a good number, the USD/JPY will rally which may push the EUR/JPY up a bit or keep it flat and due to a USD rally, the EUR/USD may fall more.

It's not easy to predict, especially on the first day of the month but that's how I'm seeing it as a potential result.

Furthermore, if the number comes in as expected, then the focus remains on Ireland and Spain and nothing changes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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