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  • #649,761
  • May 30, 2012 10:13pm May 30, 2012 10:13pm
I have a sneaky feeling that Gold and silver have finally approached bottom for a long time.
  • #649,762
  • May 30, 2012 10:14pm May 30, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting sidhujag
I have a sneaky feeling that Gold and silver have finally approached bottom for a long time.
why do you say that?
  • #649,763
  • May 30, 2012 10:18pm May 30, 2012 10:18pm
The way it got bought up at the bottom without making a new low on the H4... all the metal stocks look the same way.. gap down capitulation by retailers then buy.. without a retrace. NFP will tell... but will be too late for retailers to jump on by then... would be interesting to see what happens next few days on NY open. Remember NY loves to sell gold so lets see how they react.

Also yesterday it fell hard with USD and today USD rose even more and gold rose with it... generally this is a sign that there is strong demand.
  • #649,764
  • May 30, 2012 10:24pm May 30, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting sidhujag
I have a sneaky feeling that Gold and silver have finally approached bottom for a long time.

Anythings possible... but when markets experience parabolic moves such as gold (and even more so, silver) did recently... once that parabola is broken, usually one can expect to see the entire distance of the parabolic move retrace.

For silver, this is somewhere around $20 or lower...

gold is less clear... but somewhere around $1000 would be a safe bet.

Also, consider if the dollar keeps moving up, that will put downward pressure on all commodities (since they are all pretty much priced in dollars)

And finally, if the fed starts to raise interest rates, this will just help support the dollar even more so, thus putting more downward pressure on gold and silver.

yes gold/silver is a flight to safety trade, however, you can't buy u.s. or jpy investments with gold... be those investments bonds, stocks, real estate...etc...

silver/gold only buy one single possible investment... and that's silver/gold.

but dollars, yen, emerging market currencies buy a whole lot....

and in the interest of diversification alone, and considering where silver and gold recently were priced (and therefore likley held a larger percentage of investment portfolios world wide than in many decades before)....

I think a reversion to the mean for both, pre-parabolic move... is still more likely than a move up. over the next 3-24 months.

X
  • #649,765
  • May 30, 2012 10:26pm May 30, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting sidhujag
I have a sneaky feeling that Gold and silver have finally approached bottom for a long time.
Ahhh, and now your talking days. I guess I assumed long time was months/years.

for the next couple days, i have no opinion
  • #649,766
  • May 30, 2012 10:27pm May 30, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting forextraderx
Anythings possible... but when markets experience parabolic moves such as gold (and even more so, silver) did recently... once that parabola is broken, usually one can expect to see the entire distance of the parabolic move retrace.

For silver, this is somewhere around $20 or lower...

gold is less clear... but somewhere around $1000 would be a safe bet.

Also, consider if the dollar keeps moving up, that will put downward pressure on all commodities (since they are all pretty much priced in dollars)

And finally, if the fed starts to raise interest...
Yea maybe... depends what NY does. But dollar on the verge of a medium term top aswell looks like its trying to price something in, maybe QE so when it does get called the smart money will be sitting on top. All of my MM lines are at +1 and +2, can't keep going much longer unless full blown crisis unfolds right now.
  • #649,767
  • May 30, 2012 10:28pm May 30, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting forextraderx
Ahhh, and now your talking days. I guess I assumed long time was months/years.

for the next couple days, i have no opinion
I am talking months. If QE comes then years.

Although I already said 80 is USDx floor since 2011 I been saying that... and now its happened... but it shoudl test 80 now.. which might let everything else push up the ones that push up the most we know will probably be a safe bet for a bottom in place. We saw USD and gold rise together.. so anything is possible in any case.
  • #649,768
  • May 30, 2012 10:30pm May 30, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yea maybe... depends what NY does. But dollar on the verge of a medium term top aswell looks like its trying to price something in, maybe QE so when it does get called the smart money will be sitting on top. All of my MM lines are at +1 and +2, can't keep going much longer unless full blown crisis unfolds right now.
ya, no, your correct in this thinking, and for the next few days/weeks, we may very well see a move up in gold/silver... i was talking minimum 3 months out, upwards of the following 2 years.

X
  • #649,769
  • May 30, 2012 10:31pm May 30, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting vladimir.kuc
so ...

we still have down trend with old targets ..

1,22 - 1,2000
it can goes lower bad news and widowth ecb suport ...will keep down ..we still have allmowst 3 weeks so if we go down in that rallies style we might go under 1.2.for sure..about a reversal.. i dont see how when we recive only bag news ..
  • #649,770
  • May 30, 2012 10:34pm May 30, 2012 10:34pm
too many news today get ready for news trading
Mohan
  • #649,771
  • May 30, 2012 10:36pm May 30, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting aurel_79
it can goes lower bad news and widowth ecb suport ...will keep down ..we still have allmowst 3 weeks so if we go down in that rallies style we might go under 1.2.for sure..about a reversal.. i dont see how when we recive only bag news ..
Well, the day there is new, significant bad news, but the E/U rallies up with conviction regardless... this is one clue i'll be looking for to tell me that the movement down is likely over or coming to an end very soon.

X
  • #649,772
  • May 30, 2012 10:38pm May 30, 2012 10:38pm
haven't even news yet.. and it suddenly shoot up.. what happen to the bears?
  • #649,773
  • May 30, 2012 10:40pm May 30, 2012 10:40pm
Quoting sidhujag
I am talking months. If QE comes then years.
you think QE = years? I don't think it's that simple. If QE were to stimulate U.S. equity markets or other U.S. investments and thus creating a large amount of viable investments that are on track to outpace gold in terms of ROI... it's very possible that a QE in such a case would fail to create any long term momentum upward for gold... at least not on the order of 1 year +

but, should the other U.S. investment opportunities look to underperform gold on the whole, in spite of a QE...then yes.. your likely correct, and gold will see another push upwards for a while to come.

X
  • #649,774
  • May 30, 2012 10:45pm May 30, 2012 10:45pm
Hello guys! Hope you got some green pips from the usual boring Asian session.

Same levels in play today, 00-89-58 not sure if we gonna break downside yet depends a lot on London.
  • #649,775
  • May 30, 2012 10:46pm May 30, 2012 10:46pm
Quoting forextraderx
Well, the day there is new, significant bad news, but the E/U rallies up with conviction regardless... this is one clue i'll be looking for to tell me that the movement down is likely over or coming to an end very soon.

X
i dont think that we see bottom until the 17 june.. and think that after election few days more one week maby for grece gov to make some move in one way..so when the political crisis will end .. we have a bigger problem economical crisis.. but ecb does now what to do..few "good word" will rallyes up..and start a new trend..
wee will see it!!!!!!!!
  • #649,776
  • May 30, 2012 10:54pm May 30, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting forextraderx
you think QE = years? I don't think it's that simple. If QE were to stimulate U.S. equity markets or other U.S. investments and thus creating a large amount of viable investments that are on track to outpace gold in terms of ROI... it's very possible that a QE in such a case would fail to create any long term momentum upward for gold... at least not on the order of 1 year +

but, should the other U.S. investment opportunities look to underperform gold on the whole, in spite of a QE...then yes.. your likely correct, and gold will see another push...
it will add fuel atleast 200 bucks. Usd will fall its the reason gold is falling. However usd rising is good for global economy since us would survive a possible double dip. Dow sp have to rise with usd and its starting to happen. Gold hasnt caught on. When qe comes it will fall in order. As long as theres a printing press gold will be a bull. Right now ppl questioning it because it takes alot to store it and protect it. Us has all of it so they actively sell it esp whn china wants it to go up as they are buying. Us depresses price so china can be a bag
holder for lower prices. However us crooks forgot about india for now and when they buy after a base is formed id look for us crooks to fall back and run home to like lil bitches
  • #649,777
  • May 30, 2012 11:03pm May 30, 2012 11:03pm
  • #649,778
  • May 30, 2012 11:07pm May 30, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
The way it got bought up at the bottom without making a new low on the H4... all the metal stocks look the same way.. gap down capitulation by retailers then buy...
I know you are talking about Gold, but I have been looking at strong monthly support at 2363.7 for EUR/USD. For me, it's a key level

I think this is the bottom for awhile ----> Wait&See.
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  • #649,779
  • May 30, 2012 11:08pm May 30, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting sidhujag
Dow sp have to rise with usd and its starting to happen. Gold hasnt caught on.
you mention USD is falling so gold is falling... but, USD has been rising...no?

also, as per your quote, actually, the dow and S&P tend to move inverse to the U.S.D... and since at least the financial crisis hit around 2008, gold and the dollar have had a more inverse relationship than anything else.

how do you figure if the U.S.D. moves up then gold moves up.... it hasn't done this much for the last year or so, give or take. Which makes some sense actually if one considers how overpriced gold was back at 1900+

I personally still think it is going to readjust downward more likely than upward over the next few years. a QE will support it, yes, but it will also support other dollar denominated investments, and these will likely overshadow gold IMO.

but, why do you think a move up in the dollar will result in a move up in equities AND a move up in gold...?

X
  • #649,780
  • May 30, 2012 11:09pm May 30, 2012 11:09pm
Quoting Nachiket
its too early IMO- however if your trading 4hr or less, this bull trap will have some leg to it
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