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  • #649,721
  • May 30, 2012 3:55pm May 30, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting Acroix70
Yea soo how is this a French problem? I don't see how they caused this other than joining the Euro
Just to underline your ignorance a little bit more you are probably not aware the euro project was cooked up by France.. They also somehow blackmailed Germany into it.. Germany goes on with the project and France will agree to the Unification..
  • #649,722
  • May 30, 2012 4:07pm May 30, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting attila
Just to underline your ignorance a little bit more you are probably not aware the euro project was cooked up by France.. They also somehow blackmailed Germany into it.. Germany goes on with the project and France will agree to the Unification..
mighty german been blackmail by france.... hahaha... thats a good one
  • #649,723
  • May 30, 2012 4:15pm May 30, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting attila
As to the yen, franc, etc. the Market is going to call their bluff same as it did with the sterling some time ago...
Agreed, particularly with regard to the franc, as they have implemented a much less elastic approach than the BoJ when it comes to their "peg"

The fundamental problem with such a peg is they are implementing a policy of forced devaluation in order to remain competitive with the surrounding nations.

This is, essentially, a superficial approach to affecting the value of a currency.

The swiss want their cake and to eat it too in this case...otherwise they would take steps that would ACTUALLY devalue their currency, such dumping their assumed large gold holdings on the open market, or even just NOT pegging their currency to the euro, and allowing the loss that swiss industry experiences as a result of the higher currency valuation to take effect. If the franc rose to the point where the swiss suddenly had to issue large amounts of bonds amid a shrinking GDP to sustain their many government supported programs, industries, etc.... this would naturally lead the market towards selling the franc (eventually anyway)

But, they don't want to ACTUALLY devalue their economy or their financial viability as a nation... they just want the currency to appear as though these things are true.

And this can only be successful to the point that maintaining such a peg does not push their resources to the point that it will ACTUALLY affect their financial viability as a nation.

The moment that the cost of maintaining the peg starts to effect the fundamental value of their economic and financial viability, they will start to question whether it is best to maintain this peg. I have no idea at what point they actually conclude enough is enough... but once their underlying financial/economic viability as a nation becomes affected, it will be the beginning of the end of their desire to maintain the peg.

Essentially, it is a superficial devaluation. And the resources market forces at work in the world to devalue the euro are almost guaranteed to exceed the resources that the swiss government is willing to commit to devaluing their currency along with the euro...because as such devaluation starts to put significant pressure on their resources, they will have to choose to build up a large national debt at higher and higher yields to maintain that peg.

By taking on such debts at higher and higher interest rates, this, in effect, would ACTUALLY devalue their currency...and that is something they likely have little desire for. They just want a superficial devaluation. And like most things superficial in life... it tends to give way to the more genuine.

X
  • #649,724
  • May 30, 2012 4:17pm May 30, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting Johnny Depp
mighty german been blackmail by france.... hahaha... thats a good one
Reminiscences of WW2. You have some reading to do too..
  • #649,725
  • Edited 4:41pm May 30, 2012 4:18pm | Edited 4:41pm
[/quote]
Quoting Johnny Depp
in my experience.. there is no such thing as big player or small player... big account or small account... at the end u will find it was just U...
there is no secret in this fx trading... as a trader we react, and not need to predict... hahaha..
Agreed. When you have bias towards a particular direction we traders have the tendency to drain the account.. I've made more money going with the flow than predicting what the flow will do.
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  • #649,726
  • May 30, 2012 4:22pm May 30, 2012 4:22pm
I agree in general lines.. The problem with the franc is it's a safe haven first. Once they pegged due to a strong franc negatively affecting their exports they essentially gave up their financial independence.. The point of having floating currencies is to insulate one country from the financial actions of the other.. In a pegging scenario, if one country raises it's interest rates, the other has to follow regardless of that being good for their particular situation.. That was the main reason for moving away from the gold standard. To create these buffers....

Quoting forextraderx
Agreed, particularly with regard to the franc, as they have implemented a much less elastic approach than the BoJ when it comes to their "peg"

The fundamental problem with such a peg is they are implementing a policy of forced devaluation in order to remain competitive with the surrounding nations.

This is, essentially, a superficial approach to affecting the value of a currency.

The swiss want their cake and to eat it too in this case...otherwise they would take steps that would ACTUALLY devalue their currency, such dumping their assumed...
  • #649,727
  • May 30, 2012 4:23pm May 30, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting attila
Reminiscences of WW2. You have some reading to do too..
maybe... but what I've known fance is good at surrender and kissing only...hahaha
  • #649,728
  • Edited 4:47pm May 30, 2012 4:23pm | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting mkvy
? 4000 pip profit... Would be like winning the lottery... Trading 10 usd lots...multi stacked... Ummm.. Could be a plan, especially if Greece pulls out the euro
been there, done that. between eurusd, eurjpy, gbpusa, and gbpjpy. May 1, 2012 is where madness finally arrived.. lol!
  • #649,729
  • May 30, 2012 4:24pm May 30, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting Johnny Depp
maybe... but what I've known fance is good at surrender and kissing only...hahaha
yeah, OK...
  • #649,730
  • May 30, 2012 4:53pm May 30, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting attila
Reminiscences of WW2. You have some reading to do too..
Hi,

I think Germany was all in for the Euro project. As you said, they profitted massively. This project artificially lowered value of German and French currency. They profitted not only from PIIGS, but from all nations who accepted Euro, werent prepared for it and terefore ruined their export.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #649,731
  • May 30, 2012 5:08pm May 30, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi,

I think Germany was all in for the Euro project. As you said, they profitted massively. This project artificially lowered value of German and French currency. They profitted not only from PIIGS, but from all nations who accepted Euro, werent prepared for it and terefore ruined their export.

T
Not really.. They were pretty reluctant to give up their Deutsche mark.. What happened after that is a different story..

I was reading somewhere a Bank of England analysis before the euro was set up, where they warned of all the problems we're seeing now.. That was the reason they didn't join.. Those brits.. telling ya..
  • #649,732
  • May 30, 2012 5:09pm May 30, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting vladimir.kuc
Current situation -

http://imgs.su/tmp/2012-05-30/1338377609-575.jpg
so ...

we still have down trend with old targets ..

1,22 - 1,2000
  • #649,733
  • May 30, 2012 5:16pm May 30, 2012 5:16pm
How Low Will the Euro Go this time?
  • #649,734
  • May 30, 2012 5:33pm May 30, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting vladimir.kuc
so ...

we still have down trend with old targets ..

1,22 - 1,2000
Thank you
  • #649,735
  • May 30, 2012 6:02pm May 30, 2012 6:02pm
In a half baked philosophical way, This recent resurgence of EZ fear as well as the entire euro zone problems on the whole are a massive reminder of some of the inherent dangers that all capital market participants face at any level of their participation:

1. It's easier to get into a trade than out of a trade (ask greece how much easier a decision it was to get into the EZ than it will be to get out of the EZ)

2. Getting out of a trade is easier and less destructive if a viable plan to exit is developed before a trade is entered. (ask germany/france/any nation if having a pre-planned strategy to remove a nation or otherwise dissolve the partnership as it stands would have been a good idea and thus make this crisis more manageable)

3. trading without any form of a stop of some sort can be financially irresponsible. (at what point short of insolvency were the PIIGS nations and others going to decide not to spend more?"

4. Over leveraging is one of two cardinal sins of capital markets, and doing so is one of the most prevalent reasons that traders end up losing money trading. (again, ask greece and other EZ debtor nations how they feel about overleveraging)

5. Successful trading often depends on making ones own decisions, that can often be in contrast to what the masses are going along with (good job U.K. for being contrarian with the euro experiment)

6. Overtrading is the other one of two cardinal sins of the capital market participants, and is probably tied with over leveraging for the reason most market participants lose. (again, greece didn't just borrow too much on one occassion... it seemed to be a popular theme for years running with them and several other euro zone nations)

7. The moment that you depend on another persons trading and or investment advice, is the moment that your success or failure depends on how well their market decisions are, instead of your own decisions. (Germany and to a lesser extent France probably wonder why they ever let other nations have so much sway over the affect on their economic capacity and productivity and viability as they look back from where they are now)

8. it's generally a good idea to have a risk:reward ratio that will provide a greater reward for the risk taken on a trade. There were many positive aspects of adopting the euro... but did any of them outweigh the downside risk of a nation or series of nations that might fall apart "financially speaking", cause a chain reaction that would end in the possible financial ruin for many, if not all of the EZ nations?

9. If your trading plan has flaws that allow for undesired catastrophic losses either because you lack an edge, or proper money management, or a stop loss, or some other reason... it is best to close all positions and stop trading until such elements can be properly developed and included in your trading plan...

so, since stuff obviously isnt working out in the EZ.... will they unwind this experiment and restructure themselves in a way that will fix the reasons this situation occurs (either by ending the EZ completely, or a massive rethinking and restructuring of the entire Euro experiement)... or will they continue to throw good money after bad inthe form of additional LTRO's, finding help via international monetary intervention, etc; without fixing the fundamental flaws that created such a pervasively bad situation in the first place? (be it dissolving the euro, or some other massive change...)

This remains to be seen, but I find it somewhat ironic that financial entities that many people feel are large enough and powerful enough to actually "control" the markets are, in the end, no more effective at ignoring the same basic "TRADING ABC'S" that any would be market participant needs to respct.

But for now, if somehow we can push up ro around the 2480+ level... I'll count on "trader europe" still making bad trading decisions, and I'll fade em' from that price anytime between now and the next day or so.

X
  • #649,736
  • May 30, 2012 6:02pm May 30, 2012 6:02pm
Looking at the monthly chart. We have good support at 1.2360. EurUsd could range for a while. Still, I am looking for it to get to 1.2158 sometime next week if not sooner. Good trading to all, off to bed now.
  • #649,737
  • May 30, 2012 6:08pm May 30, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Hi All,

I've reading and watching this thread since a while and recently thought of joining, hope I could be some use

Now back to our subject, the stupid and crazy pair EUR/USD! if you guys would look at the monthly chart, you would notice that we have had 5 concecutive bear bars so far, which in the last 10 years, has been so far the maximum number of concecutive bear bars! I'm not indicating that the pair would bounce back, I'm just saying be careful and if you are planning to go short make sure you have a tight S/L!

Safe Trading!...

?? which months bro, also euro has no real history or equitable value, however agrred keep things tight, but not tight enought to keep getting clipped by noise,
I dont see your monthly bars, but yes is a bear train, options are clear, stand in front and try pick a bottom, ride the train "after " each support breached retested and rejection, plus riskier option of scalping each support bounce, or finally sit on hands for buyers until clear minimum 4hr or daily resistance breach retest and rejection

Welcome bro, trade safe trade smart
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #649,738
  • May 30, 2012 6:27pm May 30, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Hi All,

I've reading and watching this thread since a while and recently thought of joining, hope I could be some use

Now back to our subject, the stupid and crazy pair EUR/USD! if you guys would look at the monthly chart, you would notice that we have had 5 concecutive bear bars so far, which in the last 10 years, has been so far the maximum number of concecutive bear bars! I'm not indicating that the pair would bounce back, I'm just saying be careful and if you are planning to go short make sure you have a tight S/L!

Safe Trading!...
well, I pulled up a monthly chart, and I see we were down, month by month, for the month of april, and will be the month of may. That leaves.... 3 more months for possible "max downward movement" by your hypothesis?

I also see Dec 09 - Jan 10 falling for 7 months in a row... so... not sure where you get 5 months anyway.

and really, one would be better served to determine pip counts of such monthly swings, not bars. Pips reflect a much more quantifiable change in value....bars in fact do no measure value in isolation, but value over time, which adds a significant variable for which your not considering.

Last but not least...such averages may work sometimes in some markets with enough data to justify that (which the e/u doesn't have), but remember that arbitrary "oversold" or "overbought" calculations such as yours above only work if the recent massive selling or buying is overdone in terms of "perceived true value". While one can guess on what "perceived true value is" until they are blue in the face, the fact is if "perceived true value" for the eur/usd is 0.5000 (hypothetical example, don't be an idiot and respond with "0.5000?! your an idioit", it will keep moving down toward 0.5000... and may very well do so with 12 straight months of declines.

This is a rather poor illustration of a reason for which the euro may decline more than 5 months... but I think it still illustrates a valid point: markets can and will move in such magnitudes that will often defy what is statistically likely and historically precedented, particularly when the fundamental influencing factors are historically unprecedented.
  • #649,739
  • May 30, 2012 6:33pm May 30, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting forextraderx
In a half baked philosophical way, This recent resurgence of EZ fear as well as the entire euro zone problems on the whole are a massive reminder of some of the inherent dangers that all capital market participants face at any level of their participation:

1. It's easier to get into a trade than out of a trade (ask greece how much easier a decision it was to get into the EZ than it will be to get out of the EZ)

2. Getting out of a trade is easier and less destructive if a viable plan to exit is developed before a trade is entered. (ask germany/france/any...
YES. Was just thinking.... "recapitalization" That is exactly what the most rabid and desparate beginning forex trader does, if possible. I think it is easier to get a desparate beginning forex trader to adjust their approach to favor successful trading instead of failure (eventually) than it is to change the minds and approaches of these "august" unelected individuals and banks set on world government. Because, that alone is what is at the bottom of everything we are seeing. There simply is NO reason why things have to be as awful as they are, except for the fact that chaos gives them the chance to bring under control populations systematically rendered helpless. Recapitalization is almost funny except that it is not. No changes in fundamentals. The desire for world government is too strong in these people and they can't stop the train now to think about getting off, after generations of secrecy. No price in human suffering is EVER too high for those attempting to complete their plans. But the tiger may have gotten out of their control? We shall see.
  • #649,740
  • May 30, 2012 6:51pm May 30, 2012 6:51pm
Quoting attila
Not really.. They were pretty reluctant to give up their Deutsche mark.. What happened after that is a different story..

I was reading somewhere a Bank of England analysis before the euro was set up, where they warned of all the problems we're seeing now.. That was the reason they didn't join.. Those brits.. telling ya..
Lol. As if their situation is any better?
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