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  • #648,121
  • May 27, 2012 4:26pm May 27, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting 2046
The problem with divergence is that it does not work very well in trending markets. Take the 9th of May on H4 which is what you might refer to... RSI and MACD indicated divergence but it did not play out.
Agree, I burned my fingers many times before, oscilators generaly are useless in trending markets as you said.
swing it!
  • #648,122
  • May 27, 2012 4:27pm May 27, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting Price
Euro has broken some lows and a Long Term trendline which goes back to 2001. If it had bounced off of these lows I would be telling a different story.... but it has broken them time and time again.

Last week was a long awaited fall lower. The fundamentals (which I usually try to ignore) have been pointing lower for quite some time.

The only thing I'm curious about today is..... what is the market going to do with this US Holiday. USA banks will be closed. Could be a prime time to make another move lower while no one is looking.

I gotta trade...
Price, not to pick on you, but lack of certainty that comes through in your tone is exactly what I am seeing many other traders express.

I'm willing to bet last week, and even more likley the week before, you didn't have any wavering thoughts as to what you wanted...I'm betting you felt more confident about going short E/WORLD

well.... I'm thinking many want to sell...but not at THESE levels, on this holiday market condition.... and I, as well as other traders are picking up on this, and see it as an opportunity to make some pips on a low liquidity market that very well could be experiencing some small scale squeeze.

Besides, just about everyone and everything I've read about or heard from today is looking to go short.... but from 1.2600 or higher.

So, free ride up with a first stop at 1.2600? not sure... but i've got money on it.

X
  • #648,123
  • May 27, 2012 4:29pm May 27, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting tomspin
Maybe not the best time to share it.
It will dissapear until monday but I'll have a go.
I was analysing weekly chart and realised that we are at the pretty important zone (12600)
1. Nov 2008 & March 2009 double bottom and rally up to 1.5xxx area
2. Aug 2010 bounce up after correction - up to 1.4270 area
3. Jan 2012 bounce up after drop from 1.4xxx - up to 1.35xx area

Points for bulls:
1. Price failed to breach below 1.25 big psychological number
2. Bearish May
3. And thats it

Points for bears:
1. Price closed firmly below 1.26xx
2. EZ in worst...
This was my post from saturday evening 2500/2600 area is a very important zone from the technical point of view
swing it!
  • #648,124
  • May 27, 2012 4:31pm May 27, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting tomspin
This was my post from saturday evening 2500/2600 area is a very important zone from the technical point of view
Agreed tom... and the next level that will offer this much 2 way action/liquidity is not for over 100 pips below... and I can't help but feel that it may be 100+ pips too many for some overly extended euro traders...

X
  • #648,125
  • May 27, 2012 4:35pm May 27, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting 2046
The problem with divergence is that it does not work very well in trending markets. Take the 9th of May on H4 which is what you might refer to... RSI and MACD indicated divergence but it did not play out.
Go to AUD/USD on 1st april 2012 H4 exactly the same situation like with E/D tonight that is when I started to looking for them on fridays. Not rule of a thumb but pretty good signal to watch out.
swing it!
  • #648,126
  • May 27, 2012 4:39pm May 27, 2012 4:39pm
M5 showing price exhaustion and M15 forming red doji I would be taking profit (long position) if it stays like that
swing it!
  • #648,127
  • May 27, 2012 4:46pm May 27, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting forextraderx
Price, not to pick on you, but lack of certainty that comes through in your tone is exactly what I am seeing many other traders express.

I'm willing to bet last week, and even more likley the week before, you didn't have any wavering thoughts as to what you wanted...I'm betting you felt more confident about going short E/WORLD

well.... I'm thinking many want to sell...but not at THESE levels, on this holiday market condition.... and I, as well as other traders are picking up on this, and see it as an opportunity to make some pips on a low liquidity...
Actually you're right.

I'm on the fence, and not at all certain about another big fall. I'm not taking any new positions until I see what PA looks like today.

I do feel that when it comes to taking new long positions.... I'm more comfortable taking them with AUD.>>> Euro drags AUD lower.... but then on a retrace, it's AUD that makes the stronger moves higher.... noticed it all last week as well. And even this gap up over the last couple hours is a lot stronger looking on AUD than Euro. (Oanda charts, 5 min chart for detail).

The kind of play I really like is when things get out of sync. Euro drags AUD lower even though the fundies for AUD are strong compared to just about everywhere else. So, I love playing Eur/Aud and PoundAud for 100 pip moves in both directions.

But I like your analysis... right now I'm still trying to think this thing through without getting caught up in my own expectations.

Cheers
  • #648,128
  • May 27, 2012 4:47pm May 27, 2012 4:47pm
You need to wait to the top of an hour now. Then price moves.
  • #648,129
  • May 27, 2012 4:48pm May 27, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting trade4fun
here is the EA statement of last week until market closed at friday night.

i know some people are intersted in how the EA will continue so if nobody mind i add it in here.
Can you put the account on Myfxbook?
That would make it easier to analyze the history...

Joe
  • #648,130
  • May 27, 2012 4:53pm May 27, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting tomspin
M5 showing price exhaustion and M15 forming red doji I would be taking profit (long position) if it stays like that
it very well may come back down tom, but i've taken half my profit postion off at about 23ish pips, and my stop on the other half is at -7 pips... so I'll net out about 16 pips on half my origional position should it stop out, so, at least for me, i can't lose now.

And.... I'm sitting here thinking... price will only move down if there are more aggressive sellers than buyers...and with the market as oversold as it is, i'mj wondering what larger traders would likely sell it at this point... what would their target be? it's a low liquidity day as is... meaning fewer pending orders below to cover any shorts taken here with....

and with some decent sized stops above us just 30ish pips... I can't see it moving below 1.2525 until we touch 1.2600ish.
  • #648,131
  • May 27, 2012 4:55pm May 27, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting forextraderx
it very well may come back down tom, but i've taken half my profit postion off at about 23ish pips, and my stop on the other half is at -7 pips... so I'll net out about 16 pips on half my origional position should it stop out, so, at least for me, i can't lose now.

And.... I'm sitting here thinking... price will only move down if there are more aggressive sellers than buyers...and with the market as oversold as it is, i'mj wondering what larger traders would likely sell it at this point... what would their target be? it's a low liquidity day...
Seriously man.. Stop the nonsense. Do you know why the market dropped on Friday? Just checking..
  • #648,132
  • May 27, 2012 5:04pm May 27, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting attila
Seriously man.. Stop the nonsense. Do you know why the market dropped on Friday? Just checking..
I can't really say, as I was long earlier in the day, and wasn't sure what to make of the drop..... but if I had to venture a guess i'd suspect the barrier at 2500 had something to do with it, and the negative spanish news acted as a catalyst to apply additional pressure downward to hit the barriers there...

but that, as well as this, is purely speculative. I didn't take a short on friday... and it's always easy looking back...

X
  • #648,133
  • May 27, 2012 5:13pm May 27, 2012 5:13pm
EJ found support just under 100 Geppy filled the gap, can't see different scenario for E/D atm
swing it!
  • #648,134
  • May 27, 2012 5:19pm May 27, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting Bosphorus
If cloggie is long then we are going up for sure. Retrace at least. Man knows what's up. Shame they blocked his twitter account.
Why his twitter has been blocked? Thanks
"I am still learning" - Socrates
  • #648,135
  • May 27, 2012 5:19pm May 27, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting attila
Seriously man.. Stop the nonsense. Do you know why the market dropped on Friday? Just checking..


This thread is pure comedy gold
  • #648,136
  • May 27, 2012 5:23pm May 27, 2012 5:23pm
No wait i'm up 23 pips on my long, but down -10 on my short, so i'm net..........
But hey, the trade can't lose..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #648,137
  • May 27, 2012 5:23pm May 27, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting forextraderx
I can't really say, as I was long earlier in the day, and wasn't sure what to make of the drop..... but if I had to venture a guess i'd suspect the barrier at 2500 had something to do with it, and the negative spanish news acted as a catalyst to apply additional pressure downward to hit the barriers there...

but that, as well as this, is purely speculative. I didn't take a short on friday... and it's always easy looking back...

X
Spain news was not the catalyst. It was IT. Who cares about some options here and there when Greece is on the verge and Spain is soon to follow..
It was Catalonia asking for money. The Spanish 10Y is at 6.31. Do you know what happens when it gets to 7? Bankia made news too.. This market is driven by.. I wouldn't even venture to say news.. but by whispers. That's how fearful everybody is.. If the news is bad it won't care about any of the technicals, supply/demand, sellers/buyers bull shit.. I for one don't dare trading for more than 10-15 pips at a time.. Any rationalization, prediction etc. in this kind of environment is pure mental masturbation.
  • #648,138
  • May 27, 2012 5:29pm May 27, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting tomspin
EJ found support just under 100 Geppy filled the gap, can't see different scenario for E/D atm

well, its losing momentum.... and starting to drop under a 5 min TL... next stop down would be 50-55... I'm not crazy about these recent developments, but long I have will be net profitable regardless, so i'm not concerned either way. Keeping an eye out for the 2600+ level for now for the next possible setup.

X
  • #648,139
  • May 27, 2012 6:05pm May 27, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting attila
Spain news was not the catalyst. It was IT. Who cares about some options here and there when Greece is on the verge and Spain is soon to follow..
It was Catalonia asking for money. The Spanish 10Y is at 6.31. Do you know what happens when it gets to 7? Bankia made news too.. This market is driven by.. I wouldn't even venture to say news.. but by whispers. That's how fearful everybody is.. If the news is bad it won't care about any of the technicals, supply/demand, sellers/buyers bull shit.. I for one don't dare trading for more than 10-15 pips at...

you must have missed the part where I said "spain"... I didn't clarify with Catalonia asking for money, because I honestly couldn't tell if your flippancy was purely rhetorical, or if there was a deeper question there.
But again, I don't trade if I don't have a high degree of conviction, so any reasoning I could give you really wouldn't matter because it wasn't something I was watching closely at the time of the drop.

If you had started with your premise that any speculation/prediction is worhtless in this environment, I would have given a more appropriate response.

Which, by the way, you have a solid point regarding this environment... I tend to agree... but I don't see it in such a black and white manner as it seems you currently do... Given that this is a holiday trading day, the lack of liquidity in the marketplace I believe provides compelling reason to cover shorts lower and resell a bit higher. And barring any new developments between here and 25 pips above here... most of the rumors and fearful whispers going around is not surprising anyone. Should something more come out (which is entirely possible), I will consider it at that time...

It's not that I find your ideas and concerns incorrect.... I just find that they are a bit too polarized for this moment and day and circumstance in the market.

Besides, for me constructing a mental backdrop of what I believe is likely affecting the market is part of how I trade at all. If you disagree with it, fine... you disagree with it, and your reasoning may prove correct. But next time, open with that, rather than some offhand, knee jerk response to an insignificant annoyance you experience as a result of a preconceived notion of exuberant ignorance being displayed on the part the other party.

I can't stand stupid people either... but I tend to verify the accuracy of my impression before I respond to them.

for what it's worth, I found your paradigm useful on friday, and I will likley find it useful tomorrow... but today, I feel otherwise.

X
  • #648,140
  • May 27, 2012 6:10pm May 27, 2012 6:10pm
Great posts forextraderx .... ita very rare when we see someone new coming to this forum which such insight of markets. Please keep up the good posts..
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