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  • #32,561
  • May 27, 2012 4:41am May 27, 2012 4:41am
But 127 ,it will hold ,then its time to buy ,say eur gbp which I feel will be consolidating this week ,but next month ,time to buy


Quoting Bones
eur itself has a very bearish set up ,I must use fibs for target put it that way
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #32,562
  • May 27, 2012 4:41am May 27, 2012 4:41am
Fxyk, Bones & forextraderx

Welcome to EurAnalysis. Glad to have you posting here
Please be sure to read page 1 of this thread in order to familiarize yourselves with the objective and rules of this thread. There. you will also find many links to great resources for novice and seasoned traders alike.

Once again welcome and thank you for your contributions.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,563
  • May 27, 2012 6:42am May 27, 2012 6:42am
Quoting forexboom
Hi Alorente/PT,

I agree with you. The actual move started on 1st of May, when the EU was at 1.3283 that I'll call point A. Then on the 3rd of May we touched 1.3094 point B, then on 4 of May we had 1.3177 point C. Now we are at 1.2496 that is exactly 361.8% extension of the AB move starting from C.
So now I expect as 90% of the times that the EU will go back to the BC zone (1.3094/1.3177).
I expect this by an HS, so starting on monday a pull back to 1.2826, then a short move to form the right shoulder to 1.2682, then 100% extension of this...

Somebody agree with me?

fxBOOM
  • #32,564
  • May 27, 2012 6:55am May 27, 2012 6:55am
I would Like to agree,mainly because i have a long position on the EURUSD. alas albeit a small one. I cannot find a website, with an analysis of anything positive to say about the Euro. Surely this is the time, when everybody is convinced of a short, that price will unexpectedly rise .
we shall see
regards
  • #32,565
  • May 27, 2012 8:09am May 27, 2012 8:09am
Quoting brownturtle
I would Like to agree,mainly because i have a long position on the EURUSD. alas albeit a small one. I cannot find a website, with an analysis of anything positive to say about the Euro. Surely this is the time, when everybody is convinced of a short, that price will unexpectedly rise .
we shall see
regards
If you were around in 2008 and in 2010 when the Euro had a similar mini-meltdown, the discussion was all the same. Many traders were saying "Now's the time to go long... It's way oversold", yet it still proceeded to drop even further.

Here's the best solution. If you are already short from a higher price, stay in. If you are flat, wait for a correction and if sentiment is still negative, short the bugger. If you are long from the current range and underwater, I'm not sure what to tell you except that eventually, price will come back to you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,566
  • May 27, 2012 8:13am May 27, 2012 8:13am
Quoting forexboom
Somebody agree with me?

fxBOOM
I want to agree with you and your analysis makes sense from a purely technical perspective. However, the current market sentiment is against you on this at this time.

Until the Greece saga ends, the Euro is under pressure no matter what the talking heads have to say.

FxBOOM, you are in Italy. What is the general sentiment among the population about what Monti is doing?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,567
  • May 27, 2012 8:48am May 27, 2012 8:48am
Quoting forexboom
Hi Alorente/PT,

I agree with you. The actual move started on 1st of May, when the EU was at 1.3283 that I'll call point A. Then on the 3rd of May we touched 1.3094 point B, then on 4 of May we had 1.3177 point C. Now we are at 1.2496 that is exactly 361.8% extension of the AB move starting from C.
So now I expect as 90% of the times that the EU will go back to the BC zone (1.3094/1.3177).
I expect this by an HS, so starting on monday a pull back to 1.2826, then a short move to form the right shoulder to 1.2682, then 100% extension of this...
sounds like you're trying to predict which can potentially lead you into being bias. no one knows what will happen.

couple of things to point out.

1. 50 ma, and 200 ma is angling down in daily tf = very bearish, therefore we can assume that the odds are much higher on sell on rallies.

2. before considering 1.30, as you can see, 2700 area is a questionable area that you might wanna pay attention to.

there is a divergence on 4hr tf building, but we didn't get a cross over yet, hence no bulls.

when considering going long, i would at least wait for a cross over to happen then take it from there.

imo, in order for us to see a good bounce that will take us up to 1.30 area, we need to see a good momentum shift on daily tf at least, and we have none so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_01.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #32,568
  • May 27, 2012 8:53am May 27, 2012 8:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
If you were around in 2008 and in 2010 when the Euro had a similar mini-meltdown, the discussion was all the same. Many traders were saying "Now's the time to go long... It's way oversold", yet it still proceeded to drop even further.

Here's the best solution. If you are already short from a higher price, stay in. If you are flat, wait for a correction and if sentiment is still negative, short the bugger. If you are long from the current range and underwater, I'm not sure what to tell you except that eventually, price will come back to you.
Yea... agreed on the point of "anything could happen". What everyone would be wise to understand is that IF greece, either directly or be default refuses to play ball, it is very likely that they will have signed off on leaving the euro. And the euro population at large, as well as the investment community, could very easily react in such a manner that would indicate a complete lack of confidence in all things euro (namely investments) and the move could make the last 4 weeks look like a bull rally.

Think of those who shorted dot comes in 98 and 99 and 00, when some had INFINATE P:E ratios, and were irrationally trading in the stratosphere... who lost hard for a period of years before the irrational euporhia was quickly replaced by abject panic.

A E/U long could be something of an analogy to shorting Amazon in 1999.

Of course, if something of substance comes out of europe that even hints at having the power to hold it all together, we could see at 1.3000 by this coming friday.

More than any chart pattern or technical level, or even overwhelming bearish news/sentiment, is whether the markets as a whole are confident the euro will be able to keep itself together (at least for the near future anyway)

Until the end game is completely obvious, be it E/U positive or negative, expect volatility... option spread traders are likely giddy over the possibilities...and as for spot traders, well, volatility fills orders faster, gives profits faster, but takes them back faster as well. Those in the middle get whipped to pieces, those who play the edges can make money twice as fast. All the more reason to keep a close eye on how the market is reacting to developments in the Euro Zone, as well as playing for the edges of the range/trendline/etc...and paying extra close attention to agile profit taking and constant risk reduction.

And from where I stand... a move 500 pips in either direction within the next 2 weeks is a possibility I am keeping in the forefront of my mind, because its just stupid and expensive trading to believe we can tell the market what is and isn't possible.
  • #32,569
  • May 27, 2012 8:55am May 27, 2012 8:55am
Quoting pkimnyc
sounds like you're trying to predict which can potentially lead you into being bias. no one knows what will happen.

couple of things to point out.

1. 50 ma, and 200 ma is angling down in daily tf = very bearish, therefore we can assume that the odds are much higher on sell on rallies.

2. before considering 1.30, as you can see, 2700 area is a questionable area that you might wanna pay attention to.

there is a divergence on 4hr tf building, but we didn't get a cross over yet, hence no bulls.

when considering going long, i would at...
couple of other things to note. both weekly and monthly tfs are increasing bearish momentum.
  • #32,570
  • May 27, 2012 9:22am May 27, 2012 9:22am
Quoting pkimnyc
couple of other things to note. both weekly and monthly tfs are increasing bearish momentum.
Just like they did in 2010.
Back then, Once the news hit the airwaves that Greece was getting a bailout, there was no reversal. Instead price spent a month ranging at the bottom. It was only once the bailout was a 100% go that we got the rebound.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-mn.gif Size: 25 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,571
  • May 27, 2012 9:30am May 27, 2012 9:30am
very active eh pinky
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #32,572
  • May 27, 2012 9:32am May 27, 2012 9:32am
What do you guys think about this?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226368187971
  • #32,573
  • May 27, 2012 9:33am May 27, 2012 9:33am
A lot of work this weekend I can see, great! better discuss
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #32,574
  • May 27, 2012 9:35am May 27, 2012 9:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just like they did in 2010.
Back then, Once the news hit the airwaves that Greece was getting a bailout, there was no reversal. Instead price spent a month ranging at the bottom. It was only once the bailout was a 100% go that we got the rebound.

Attachment
well.... monthly views are much more interesting...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_02.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #32,575
  • May 27, 2012 9:37am May 27, 2012 9:37am
Quoting FXMindset
very active eh pinky
whether sucks here. what else can i do? any suggestion? lol
  • #32,576
  • May 27, 2012 9:40am May 27, 2012 9:40am
Quoting pkimnyc
whether sucks here. what else can i do? any suggestion? lol
I tot u dunt love me anymore,eh?
this past 2 weeks,EU trend playing nicely,sure make a lot monies ho,hope everything good there ya with family
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #32,577
  • May 27, 2012 9:42am May 27, 2012 9:42am
Quoting FXMindset
I tot u dunt love me anymore,eh?
as long as no "mo"...
family is good mate. thanks for asking.
  • #32,578
  • May 27, 2012 9:43am May 27, 2012 9:43am
ANy oppinion regarding this headlines?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...raft-says.html
  • #32,579
  • May 27, 2012 9:44am May 27, 2012 9:44am
Congratulations to Loreen representing Sweden for winning the EuroVision 2012 song contest... and deservedly so. Amazing performance

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,580
  • May 27, 2012 9:45am May 27, 2012 9:45am
Quoting JD8888
ANy oppinion regarding this headlines?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...raft-says.html
if that happens, ta will follow.
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