EurAnalysis

Hey Bill. A bit late to the game mate. Everyone's gone, especially the Yanks. It's a long weekend in the land of milk and honey

Enjoy

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What you want to start epic 'swing vs scalping' battle? I take it day-by-day if-by-if way, don't even understand your point fully, only smelling a rookie.

This answer sounds like morse code. I understand.

We done for the week. Weekend is here. We only need FAT LADY to sing. No offense to fat ladies.

hi buddy, i had a busy week showing people how to trade,,, wink wink nudge nudge lol. i was trading e/u and g/u and the occasional wall st/dow. and i punished them badly lol. i am currently in one trade e/u on a sell but i will be out of it very soon. i saved some charts n stuff for rekon67 and i compounded .50p upto £5 lol thats good for students. anyway take care

So PT when u bank like 3 mil closing ur combined EU shorts Sub Parity u gonna quit this FX nonsense?

Just noticed.
Naughty grandpa

No worries bro, i'm just a b@stard and troll

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_JRkgseRT7N...+hypocrisy.jpg

FX isn't nonsense. It's heaven. It provides me with all I want in life. Now I'm training my wife so she can eventually trade for her own spending money

Hey Ricky! a retest?

Hey Ricky a Double top?

My View

Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing out the facts. Actually complaining would be very hypocritical of me when you consider that I have profited from their incompetence and idiocy, and in this update I am going to show you how I plan on profiting further.

Okay enough ranting. Let’s get to the meat and potatoes of my view. We all know the underlying fundamentals in Europe are crap. Even Germany is just limping along. Hell, even the manufacturing sector in the United States is doing much better than Germany, albeit not that great either. That says something, doesn’t it?

Now let’s take a look at the technical possibilities of further bearish movement in this pair. Then we will look at the elements that may put this bearish view in jeopardy. I shall start with the monthly time frame.



As you can see from the chart, price is currently sitting just beyond the 78.6% fibo (1.2531) of the move from the 2010 low (1.1875) to the 2011 high (1.4939). Also price has broken the 2012 low of 1.2623 and has also broken the rising trend line (RTL-0) which has 3 anchors placed at the 2001 low, 2002 low and 2010 low. This is a very long term trend line and breaking it is a very significant event. You don’t break a trend line like that for only a 100 pip move. Closing the month below this trend line is very significant indeed. One of the things I have learned about fibo movements on large time frames (save black swan events) is that when price reaches 61.8%, there is a resultant attempt to retrace back towards the 50.0% fibo before continuation. In absence of any such retrace attempt, we get it when price reaches 78.6%, in which case it attempts a retrace back to 61.8%. However, if we get one, we don’t get the other. Since we have already retraced from 61.8% back to 50%, a retrace back up from here is highly unlikely. Add to that the fact that we are in an extremely bearish market sentiment. Furthermore, as you can see from the MacD on the chart, we do not yet have a bullish divergence, nor do we have a bullish hidden divergence. Also the RSX is not showing any oversold condition yet as the signal line is pointing downwards but is still far away from the 10 level. All the above very strongly suggests much further downside. So what’s the target? Well there are two. The first one is the 88.6% fibo at 1.2225 and the second one is at the 100% for a double bottom at the 2010 low of 1.1875. I am only looking at the 88.6% fibo for now and that is my immediate target. Of course I don’t expect price to go there directly, but I do expect it to reach it fairly quickly, before the Greek elections and possibly even as early as next week.

Now we look at the 4 hour chart to try and gauge what obstacles stand in the way of a rapid descent.



Frankly, absolutely nothing is standing in the way. The next fibo target is 361.8% (1.2235). That’s all there is to it really. Clear sailing all the way down. Of course I fully expect PA to carve out a lower low and a lower high before it actually reaches the target and for that I will use the 55ema and the falling trend line (FTL-1) as a guide. With each touch of this trend line and ema resistance, I will scale in with another short. There is a slim possibility that we may carve out a lower low right here and head up to carve out a lower high at the broken 1.2623 support. However, we have already attempted that twice in the last two days and failed. So, in my view, that’s a lost cause.

So, let’s recap. Target on the monthly chart is 1.2225 and target on the H4 chart is 1.2235. Hmmm coincidence? I hardly think so. These are not magic numbers in the sense that price has to go there, but they are self-fulfilling targets for the chartists out there. That’s how institutional technical traders pick their targets. They are not always correct, but they are the ones who can move the markets. So consider this analysis as a piggy back. As the old adage goes, “If you can’t beat them, join them”.

Now for the risks. Yes there are always risks. This is not fantasy land, nor is it for those who cannot take a bloody nose once in a while. Plain and simple the risks here are the ECB and the Fed. As long as they don’t come running to intervene in the FX markets, the bears are in control. Need I say more?

DISCLAIMER:
This is strictly my view. It is not a trade recommendation. Any information you choose to use from my view, is done so at your own risk. Always use sound money and risk management techniques. I am not psychic. I just proceed according to what I see in front of me at the time.

damn.....nice job pip-trapper

p.s. I have a question....if dollar strengthens (i.e. dollar index, etc.) does that mean gold and silver reciprocally, or usually, go down? Just wondering.

Hmmm... you are a better man than me my friend

Forex has brought me nothin but pain, anguish and suffering

Im happy for you though man... teach the wifey... then she cn buy her own Shoes and shit...

Ill keep bein the guy who sells womens shoes... The world certainly needs its Al Bundys(aka... me)

Thanks for the very detailed break down of things!

I hope to one day be as knowledgeable in the FX market as you...

Observation 21-26 May 12 and Forecast for the Next Possible Points.

Typically yes. That is the general correlation right now and has been for a little while. However, it does not mean that precious metals will not rise with the US Dollar once the economy is strong again (if ever )

No need to hope. Just keep at it and some day you will be better than you ever imagined. You will never stop learning... I haven't. In this game, experience, discipline and humility are everything. The moment you think you know everything, you'll realize you know nothing.

Don't beat yourself up bro. You need to go out and get yourself a positive attitude. If you believe FX is a source of pain, anguish and suffering, then that's all you'll ever get out of it.