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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #32,301
  • May 25, 2012 12:16am May 25, 2012 12:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
Patience my friend. It's Friday. Some shorts may want to cover before weekend. With sentiment very strongly bearish, it's hard to call, but don't rule it out.
I've all the patience in the world

Only one trade taken this month, as I play ranges and tend to sit out of trends (not sure why, trends make me uncomfortable).
"Don't Panic..."
  • #32,302
  • May 25, 2012 12:40am May 25, 2012 12:40am
  •  gil
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: try to master himself first | 63 Posts
Police Urge Greeks To Keep Money In Bank

‘Scale of withdrawals from Greek banks has led to speculation that eurozone-wide guarantee is needed to maintain confidence.’

Which emotion did create the current situation of Europe in Greece?

(that's an easy one)

Good morning all by the way.
  • #32,303
  • May 25, 2012 12:46am May 25, 2012 12:46am
Quoting gil
Police Urge Greeks To Keep Money In Bank

‘Scale of withdrawals from Greek banks has led to speculation that eurozone-wide guarantee is needed to maintain confidence.’

Which emotion did create the current situation of Europe in Greece?

(that's an easy one)

Good morning all by the way.
http://lucas2012infos.files.wordpres...ls-funding.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,304
  • May 25, 2012 1:01am May 25, 2012 1:01am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Good morning everyone!

Late evening I heard a rumor from "reliable source" that in yesterday most of EU countries have agreed on Eurobonds. That should be released this morning - or not. It may be a hoax.

ADD: That was repeated by talking forex in video section of yesterdays US Market wrap and according to them it was Mario Monti, who said it.
  • #32,305
  • May 25, 2012 1:09am May 25, 2012 1:09am
Quoting AFXFin
Good morning everyone!

Late evening I heard a rumor from "reliable source" that in yesterday most of EU countries have agreed on Eurobonds. That should be released this morning - or not. It may be a hoax.

ADD: That was repeated by talking forex in video section of yesterdays US Market wrap and according to them it was Mario Monti, who said it.
That's nothing new. Of course most countries would agree to EuroBonds. It's in their interests. They are all in deep debt and paying much more to borrow than Germany. EuroBonds would mean lower borrowing costs for most of them. However, Germany would be insane to agree to it without a solid fiscal union because it would cost them more to borrow.

Fact is that even if 16 of the EZ nations voted yes for Eurobonds, it still cannot happen. The majority do not rule the minority in the EZ. Every member state has veto power.

Mario Monti isn't going to last long. The Italians hate him and want Mr. Bunga Bunga Berlusconi back. There is the wiff of revolution in the air.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,306
  • May 25, 2012 1:15am May 25, 2012 1:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's nothing new. Of course most countries would agree to EuroBonds. It's in their interests. They are all in deep debt and paying much more to borrow than Germany. EuroBonds would mean lower borrowing costs for most of them. However, Germany would be insane to agree to it without a solid fiscal union because it would cost them more to borrow.

Fact is that even if 16 of the EZ nations voted yes for Eurobonds, it still cannot happen. The majority do not rule the minority in the EZ. Every member state has veto power.

Mario Monti isn't going...
Bunga Bunga!! I miss that guy

btw Germany def wont agree to EB's but just the rumormill that they will be used is enough to trigger a nice short covering rally on the EU...
  • #32,307
  • May 25, 2012 1:15am May 25, 2012 1:15am
  •  gil
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: try to master himself first | 63 Posts
If Germany accept Eurobonds, there is a big pot of honey for them somewhere, somehow.
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  • #32,308
  • May 25, 2012 1:16am May 25, 2012 1:16am
Good evening/good morning everyone. What a stop hunt. 15m hammer, maybe profit taking today? 1.25 is strong option barrier

edit: tried a long at 2532, sharp reversal but as always with euro longs, tight stop
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,309
  • May 25, 2012 1:24am May 25, 2012 1:24am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
That's nothing new. Of course most countries would agree to EuroBonds. It's in their interests. They are all in deep debt and paying much more to borrow than Germany. EuroBonds would mean lower borrowing costs for most of them. However, Germany would be insane to agree to it without a solid fiscal union because it would cost them more to borrow.

Fact is that even if 16 of the EZ nations voted yes for Eurobonds, it still cannot happen. The majority do not rule the minority in the EZ. Every member state has veto power.

Mario Monti isn't going...
Mario is a technocrat. He has no intention or role to please Luigis. I yesterday read that latest polls in Italy were against Bonga-man. There was some "soap-opera actor" who's party got majority. Cannot remember his name though.

Eurobond rule structure matters. If it replaces all local bonds - then Germs will say no, but if each country has an option to sell either their own or Eurobonds they may still get better yields from Eurobonds.

Eurobond is a investment instrument backed up by all EMU members - it can exist along their own bonds.
  • #32,310
  • May 25, 2012 1:29am May 25, 2012 1:29am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
BTW. Have you noticed something funny. Couple of times we have speculated something out of the air stuff here in Euranalysis - within an hour I've seen same speculation on forex news as a market talk. That has happened at least three times now within last month.

Looks like one must be careful what to write here...
  • #32,311
  • May 25, 2012 1:37am May 25, 2012 1:37am
Good morning everyone.

It's Fridayyyyyy. Yep Friday, and with the Euro more heavily net short than it was last Friday, it may be time for some short covering once again. In fact I've prepared for it by placing a sell limit order at 1.2640

Not much has changed on the political and economic front. Same s**t, different stink. I suspect it will stay this way until the Greek elections or until we see some sort of CB intervention. As such, without even worse news, I don't see any major downside even though the bears are (and will remain) in control for now. Any upside should be well capped as the bears are most likely well loaded up with fresh offers on any rallyette we may get. This produces a ranging market. Of course any change in the political and/or economic situation can change that very quickly.

Technically I am sure there is no need to mention that this pair is in oversold territory. That is as obvious as it can possibly be. So how does PA recover from an oversold condition. One way is via a rally. The other is through a long period of sideways movement. Sideways movement lowers the mean value over time. I suspect that is how things will play out for now. Hopefully we will get enough of a range to play with. Failing that range, the risk is still to the downside in the medium term so my view is to keep selling rallies.

Here is my current H4 chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,312
  • May 25, 2012 1:39am May 25, 2012 1:39am
Quoting AFXFin
BTW. Have you noticed something funny. Couple of times we have speculated something out of the air stuff here in Euranalysis - within an hour I've seen same speculation on forex news as a market talk. That has happened at least three times now within last month.

Looks like one must be careful what to write here...
I told you they are reading our posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,313
  • May 25, 2012 1:42am May 25, 2012 1:42am
I am holding this long until BE or much higher (like 1.26 area). I suspect we end the week hovering around 1.26

I finally felt comfortable going long with all that support at 1.25 (but it was the 15m candle that made me go long)

PT do you ever trade options?
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,314
  • May 25, 2012 1:44am May 25, 2012 1:44am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone.

It's Fridayyyyyy. Yep Friday, and with the Euro more heavily net short than it was last Friday, it may be time for some short covering once again. In fact I've prepared for it by placing a sell limit order at 1.2640

Not much has changed on the political and economic front. Same s**t, different stink. I suspect it will stay this way until the Greek elections or until we see some sort of CB intervention. As such, without even worse news, I don't see any major downside even though the bears are (and will remain) in control...
Rally looks like beginning already. 30 pips in half an hour. Little bounce in every fib level of yesterdays drop.
  • #32,315
  • May 25, 2012 1:45am May 25, 2012 1:45am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting BFSGcapital
I am holding this long until BE or much higher (like 1.26 area). I suspect we end the week hovering around 1.26

I finally felt comfortable going long with all that support at 1.25 (but it was the 15m candle that made me go long)

PT do you ever trade options?
I prefer to keep my options open
  • #32,316
  • May 25, 2012 1:52am May 25, 2012 1:52am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,317
  • May 25, 2012 1:56am May 25, 2012 1:56am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I am holding this long until BE or much higher (like 1.26 area). I suspect we end the week hovering around 1.26

I finally felt comfortable going long with all that support at 1.25 (but it was the 15m candle that made me go long)

PT do you ever trade options?
I have no need to trade options. That is more of a commercial tool to hedge potential losses on future international trade.
From a retails trader's perspective (at least mine anyway), options are like betting on the future.

So like Finney says "I like to keep my options open"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,318
  • May 25, 2012 1:59am May 25, 2012 1:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have no need to trade options. That is more of a commercial tool to hedge potential losses on future international trade.
From a retails trader's perspective (at least mine anyway), options are like betting on the future.

So like Finney says "I like to keep my options open"
I do not either, was just wondering. Looks to be the options at 1.2525 that set off the profit taking

I closed 1/4 of my long at 2560, target is 1.26 or B/E for the rest
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,319
  • May 25, 2012 2:03am May 25, 2012 2:03am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I do not either, was just wondering. Looks to be the options at 1.2525 that set off the profit taking

I closed 1/4 of my long at 2560, target is 1.26 or B/E for the rest
I guess in a way I do trade option.

I set a sell limit order at 1.2640. That means that until price reaches 1.2640 I have the option of cancelling it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,320
  • May 25, 2012 2:06am May 25, 2012 2:06am
Lol

This rally is insane.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
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