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  • #647,421
  • May 24, 2012 5:35pm May 24, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting sidhujag
Usually you want to BUY when there is panic and there is a high volume up thrust... you look for a retrace (your risk is limited in that case). You want to SELL in a frenzy after a high volume stopping volume or when there is no demand, following a retrace.

Usually you need to minimize risk so if it comes close to the initial breakout you can take a trade with the SL on the other side... if it doesn't work its probably not changing trend yet dont force it.
Regarding contrarian I think that there is some truth in that when retailers are long their stops are generally tight and intraday swings are targetted to take them out before real money comes in and fixes the situation (London, Asia or New york fake outs)... but the other thing is that retailers like to pick tops and bottoms so when there is a trend they are trying to get eveyr peak to maximize gains (greed)... sometimes they get it right... but mostly they are wrong... so its really two fold when assessing the idea of contrarian trading.
  • #647,422
  • May 24, 2012 5:38pm May 24, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting Kowalczyk
No, i'd say you are right about the charts making the news. The price will always follow the trends. The news will always play catch up.

If we get bad news from the US, that could mean a weaker economy, EUR/USD falls or it could mean a higher probability of QE3, EUR/USD rises.
Hi, but i think, the news the fundamentals
are NOT displaying the real value of the € or $. Or Y.

The value is the value.

Sometimes this, sometimes that. Depends on Chart pattern
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #647,423
  • May 24, 2012 5:39pm May 24, 2012 5:39pm
In chart form this is the difference.

Short time frames: tight stop

Primary trend: wide stop
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eur15a.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #647,424
  • May 24, 2012 5:46pm May 24, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting sidhujag
Usually you want to BUY when there is panic and there is a high volume up thrust... you look for a retrace (your risk is limited in that case). You want to SELL in a frenzy after a high volume stopping volume or when there is no demand, following a retrace.

Usually you need to minimize risk so if it comes close to the initial breakout you can take a trade with the SL on the other side... if it doesn't work its probably not changing trend yet dont force it.
Yes, buy after the capitulation stage and sell when the "public" gets excited. I don't really understand what you mean by up thrust. For example, a couple of months ago, the US indexes were capitulation. I waiting for the NY close as that would bring heavy selling volume. As expected, the S&P and Dow closed at their lows (which happened to be a support level). It was pretty obvious that this would be a low. Every one on Bloomberg and CNBC was yelling "Sell, sell, sell". I bought a couple of calls and not to my surprise, the Futures opened much higher the next morning. The point that I am trying to make is when the market is selling off, you should buy it then their is an upthrust in the volume, not the price. You might be saying the same thing, your you might be saying wait for a pull back. I am not quite sure.

As for minimizing risk, that would be very hard. Contrarion investing usually involves picking bottoms. The way I see it, you would need to trade without a SL. It obviously involves risk, but the point is buying after most people have already sold. Even if it goes against you, it cannot go so far before someone is willing to buy / take profit.
  • #647,425
  • May 24, 2012 5:47pm May 24, 2012 5:47pm
Hey guys I would like to know if any 1 is trading any of the following strategies

Supply and demand only

Support and resistance only

Candlesticks only

Pivot points

I would like some help on any of the following
  • #647,426
  • May 24, 2012 5:47pm May 24, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting todstars2
I think we are saying the same thing, just differently.

to use a metaphor from Charles Dow originator of classic technical analysis.

Everyday the Tide comes in and goes out.

Stick a stake in the sand at the high and low point.

Within every wave there are ripple waves doing the same thing, sometimes going against the the major move of the tide.

Those are counter trends or reactions.

The real money is in catching the long primary wave at the low tide point and riding it in to the high water mark or in reverse.

Regardless...
Yeah, me too.
  • #647,427
  • May 24, 2012 5:51pm May 24, 2012 5:51pm
nice spike off the bottom in AUD

watching EUR
  • #647,428
  • May 24, 2012 7:29pm May 24, 2012 7:29pm
Good Morning Guys, I wanna Ask. If Greece Out From Europe, What Effect to Euro Money, Up or Down? tq..
  • #647,429
  • May 24, 2012 7:39pm May 24, 2012 7:39pm
Impact of Greek dropout will most likely be a big spike down then perhaps 6 months later a recovery....on the basis the whole house of cards doesnt tumble.

In the week leading up to the 17th the market will price in the expectation of the election results (based on polls). Current polls show the left anti euro vote is dissapaiting (as the Germans make lots of threats and analysts predict armageddon for Greece should it depart).

If the election then gave a surprise, ie the centralist parties cant get numbers for a coalition....or they can and add demands for change....then the euro could easily fall to sub 1.20 (some talk of 1.14.....citibank boss and leading uk financial nobby's are predicting this to happen irrespective of the election by the turn of the year).

As many would say though, the market, tech a. will show the way irrespective of the prevailing fundamental winds.
  • #647,430
  • May 24, 2012 7:42pm May 24, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting Sarvegus
Good Morning Guys, I wanna Ask. If Greece Out From Europe, What Effect to Euro Money, Up or Down? tq..
No. If the leave, they will have to do it over the weekend (5 PM Friday when US bonds close to 3 PM when Asia/Middle East markets open, all EST). They will have to create a new central bank and currency as well as capitalize their banks. This will be no easy task. If they do it, most people will say EUR/USD will rise but I think that it will drop.

If they start but fail to finish by the start of trading (3 PM EST on Sunday), the bears will have one hell of a day.
  • #647,431
  • May 24, 2012 8:01pm May 24, 2012 8:01pm
If greece leaves the Union, markets bob and weave for an hour or so tops then Euro starts to climb to the sky.
  • #647,432
  • May 24, 2012 8:01pm May 24, 2012 8:01pm
If it goes south again, and breaks 1.2510, hello 1.2332.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #647,433
  • Edited 8:27pm May 24, 2012 8:22pm | Edited 8:27pm
Guys, I now long

Again, not feeling like this is the start of a bull run or anything , but I am feeling that this run is a bit over extended and needs a good retrace

***edit *** Forgot the price 1.2546
  • #647,434
  • May 24, 2012 8:26pm May 24, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting tan123
Hey guys I would like to know if any 1 is trading any of the following strategies

Supply and demand only

Support and resistance only

Candlesticks only

Pivot points

I would like some help on any of the following

Right now the only indicator I use is a horizontal linex2
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #647,435
  • May 24, 2012 8:28pm May 24, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting Kowalczyk
No. If the leave, they will have to do it over the weekend (5 PM Friday when US bonds close to 3 PM when Asia/Middle East markets open, all EST). They will have to create a new central bank and currency as well as capitalize their banks. This will be no easy task. If they do it, most people will say EUR/USD will rise but I think that it will drop.

If they start but fail to finish by the start of trading (3 PM EST on Sunday), the bears will have one hell of a day.
So you mean Eur/Usd will Bearish if Greece out?
  • #647,436
  • May 24, 2012 8:29pm May 24, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting almo
Guys, I now long

Again, not feeling like this is the start of a bull run or anything , but I am feeling that this run is a bit over extended and needs a good retrace

***edit *** Forgot the price 1.2546
Keep an eye on 1.2554 for possible reversal. Daily Pivot.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #647,437
  • May 24, 2012 8:32pm May 24, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Keep an eye on 1.2554 for possible reversal. Daily Pivot.
Ty - my SL is 12526
  • #647,438
  • May 24, 2012 8:37pm May 24, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting almo
Ty - my SL is 12526
what is your tp looking for ? , looks another slow data with tight range , i am not targeting 10 pip only
Mohan
  • #647,439
  • May 24, 2012 8:38pm May 24, 2012 8:38pm
i got closed out by my stop loss but i knew it was coming down. u win some u lose some.
  • #647,440
  • May 24, 2012 8:41pm May 24, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting mohan76
what is your tp looking for ? , looks another slow data with tight range , i am not targeting 10 pip only

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