Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1790 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,781
  • May 24, 2012 9:46am May 24, 2012 9:46am
We could be setting up for a shampoo on the AU 15M if that 9800 level holds...

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  • #35,782
  • May 24, 2012 10:14am May 24, 2012 10:14am
Just back from the school run. The markets moving into slow time now for a bit. We could just range between 976X and 9800 on Aussie for a while. IMO it's not a great time to initiate a trade. I did take the euro long that I was hinting at before I left and just locked in 17 pips here SL to BE, not expecting much more movement for now.
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,783
  • May 24, 2012 10:50am May 24, 2012 10:50am
Took a short on the EU at 2590 after the 15M pin and failure to close above the 2600 level. Lots of MAs and 131's TL to get through...

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  • #35,784
  • May 24, 2012 11:03am May 24, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Trader131
Just back from the school run. The markets moving into slow time now for a bit. We could just range between 976X and 9800 on Aussie for a while. IMO it's not a great time to initiate a trade. I did take the euro long that I was hinting at before I left and just locked in 17 pips here SL to BE, not expecting much more movement for now.
So, you took this on the 2nd candle when the low failed to go below the previous candle's low and then started to move back up and away from the TL. Is that correct?
  • #35,785
  • May 24, 2012 11:20am May 24, 2012 11:20am
Took 1/2 off here at 69 (+21). S/L on the other 1/2 to B/E + 1 at 88.

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  • #35,786
  • May 24, 2012 12:07pm May 24, 2012 12:07pm
Your shorts looking good, well traded!. Stopped out on my longs now, and done for the day.

No I took that shortly after the 2nd candle closed bullish, so entered on the third candle just after I put the picture up. But you could have taken the one you said also, it's just a bit less confirmation - my entry price was 75
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,787
  • Edited 1:25pm May 24, 2012 12:26pm | Edited 1:25pm
Added 1/2 back on at 55 on the retrace up to the swing low just broken. S/L just above the swing and 15M 10ema at 67.

This is something that I am trying to practice. If I take profit on my position but price continues to move in my direction, add to the position.
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Update: S/L moved to B/E on this 1/2.

Update 2: Closed this 1/2 at 31 (+24) around previous low and Daily S1.
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Update 3: Ended up closing the remaining 1/2 at 30 as well.
  • #35,788
  • May 24, 2012 12:30pm May 24, 2012 12:30pm
Something to be aware of is this 1H channel on the AU (purple). May make a good long entry point...

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  • #35,789
  • May 24, 2012 1:32pm May 24, 2012 1:32pm
Dharma great trading, keep the charts coming. It's great when you can scale in and out of trades like that. It increases your returns dramatically.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,790
  • Edited 3:02pm May 24, 2012 2:08pm | Edited 3:02pm
I took an AU long at 26 here at the Channel and previous S/R area. Stop just below at 10.

I'll be watching that 15M 10EMA closely and if it holds for too long may cut and run.

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  • #35,791
  • May 24, 2012 2:34pm May 24, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting DharmaTrader
I took an AU long at 26 here at the Channel and previous S/R area. Stop just below at 10.

I'll be watching that 15M 10EMA closely and if it holds for too long may cut and run.
Great trade at a great area -it's also where all that heavy buying (wicks on 15min) happened earlier. Looks like it's turning out well for you.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,792
  • May 24, 2012 2:36pm May 24, 2012 2:36pm
it's stalling at that trendline I drew this morning- hope you've covered some.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,793
  • May 24, 2012 2:38pm May 24, 2012 2:38pm
I've jsut read your update- well done on covering. This is the trendline I meant
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,794
  • May 24, 2012 2:39pm May 24, 2012 2:39pm
Something lit up the market... Took 1/2 off here at the 15M 50EMA and Daily Pivot. S/L on remaining 1/2 at B/E +1.

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  • #35,795
  • May 24, 2012 2:46pm May 24, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting Trader131
I've jsut read your update- well done on covering. This is the trendline I meant
I love this way of trading because most of the time I am in a risk free trade. I'm really working on being patient with my entries to try to get a good price which allows me to cover that much quicker.

I have a bit of trouble with trendlines that are cutting through price although I think that TL you are showing is a bottom TL from the Daily so it makes sense that the 15M would be on both sides of it.

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  • #35,796
  • May 24, 2012 2:47pm May 24, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Trader131
I've jsut read your update- well done on covering. This is the trendline I meant
Actually your 15min charts look a little different to mine so the trendlines may not match. I haven't fixed the scaling on Aussie as Captain recommended, as I only use one chart to trade that one (on cable and Euro I use a 15min with fixed scale below and an 1hr above that I can change up to the higher TF's). I need another monitor!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,797
  • May 24, 2012 2:57pm May 24, 2012 2:57pm
Actually I've just been experimenting with fixing the scale and the TL still fits, so I don't get it! Anyway it's blown through it now and you're in a free trade. I would have taken it and managed it exactly like you have. It's great when you start seeing the same things isn't it!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,798
  • May 24, 2012 2:57pm May 24, 2012 2:57pm
I did switch all of my charts to fixed scale per the Captain's recommendation. I also keep a small 5M window open just to keep and eye on the PA and I also look at the candle size. Take a look at this chart. Notice how at the bottom point the impulsive large candles switch from red to green? Then we have a series of corrective smaller candles after the initial up shot. This is another indication that sentiment has changed. I wouldn't take a trade just based on this but it adds a level of confidence when other confluence factors are present.

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  • #35,799
  • May 24, 2012 3:08pm May 24, 2012 3:08pm
Yes, it's a good thing to look out for, although it's not always as clear as it is on that chart, but when you see it like that, as you say it another form of confluence to increase your confidence in a trades' success. And think about it - every reversal starts with a bullish engulfing within a certain timeframe.

How long have you been trading, Dharma, as you have an excellent understanding of the charts?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,800
  • May 24, 2012 4:39pm May 24, 2012 4:39pm
Exited my remaining 1/2 on the AU here as this late NY session rampfest is a lot like what we saw yesterday and unlikely to hold on to these gains.

May look to re-enter during Asia if something looks good.

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