Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1788 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

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Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,741
  • May 24, 2012 12:07am May 24, 2012 12:07am
Quoting Trader131
Right off to bed now and I'm sure I'll be stopped, but I'm not giving anything back now. I've set a TP at 61 in case I get lucky and I'm not talking about with the mrs!
Looks like you nailed both the top and bottom of that movement. Depending on spread at the time, your 99 stop should have just held. Nice work!

Attached Image
  • #35,742
  • May 24, 2012 12:23am May 24, 2012 12:23am
Quoting DharmaTrader
Looks like you nailed both the top and bottom of that movement. Depending on spread at the time, your 99 stop should have just held. Nice work!
Thanks, guys. Yes, I must have got lucky- my stop was missed by a pip!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,743
  • May 24, 2012 12:52am May 24, 2012 12:52am
Looking at the daily charts, Euro closed below the January lows, so further downside would be expected. However looking back on the weekly chart to the end of 2008 early 2009 there is potentially old support at these levels, so it's not a done deal. Cable closed lower but above support, and Aussie too. I'm watching Aussie for a potential reversal based on what we were talking about yesterday, but with Euro looking weak it may not happen. Descending triangle on cable 1hr chart also.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,744
  • May 24, 2012 5:01am May 24, 2012 5:01am
Taken a few trades this morning, and have done ok despite the whipsaws. I took a couple of longs on Aussie- the first was a pending order I setup before having breakfast at 66 (white checkmark) above the trendline/top of triangle on 1hr chart. I thought there would be a pop up if that line broke, but also that it might be a fakey, anyway it just hit my TP then reversed at the 50ema- I guess I got lucky again!

My next Aussie entry was after the 1hr pin printed- I was a bit late seeing it, but entered at 41. Chart below at entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie1hr.gif Size: 27 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,745
  • May 24, 2012 5:04am May 24, 2012 5:04am
My first take profit was at 59 (+18) at the trendline where I placed my earlier PO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie1hrtp1.gif Size: 22 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,746
  • May 24, 2012 5:07am May 24, 2012 5:07am
Quoting Trader131
Taken a few trades this morning, and have done ok despite the whipsaws. I took a couple of longs on Aussie- the first was a pending order I setup before having breakfast at 66 (white checkmark) above the trendline/top of triangle on 1hr chart. I thought there would be a pop up if that line broke, but also that it might be a fakey, anyway it just hit my TP then reversed at the 50ema- I guess I got lucky again!

My next Aussie entry was after the 1hr pin printed- I was a bit late seeing it, but entered at 41. Chart below at entry
Nice going man, range trading is some of my favourite intraday trading to do. Once you have a handle on the bigger picture, I don't think it's hard at all.

Yet we're always told to stay out of the range :-/

Funny, I was reading another thread on here last night about "5 steps to becoming a successful trader". There is a guy on the forum - Ha-Pattern and he's been very honest about being unprofitable for like 5 years or more now. I just want to pick him up, plonk him down at the start of this thread and tell him "if this doesn't make you profitable, you're probably a lost cause". I find it weird that people can spend so long on this without making any money and not just give up on it and perhaps accept it isn't for them.
  • #35,747
  • May 24, 2012 5:15am May 24, 2012 5:15am
2TP here (+34pips) pretty obvious reasons for taking more off- You can see on this 15 min chart what gave me the confidence with my long even though my entry was a little late. See the big push down, and then the cluster of wicks- there's a lot of buyers there. Along with the daily picture we talked about yesterday it's more than enough to pull the trigger- never mind that the HTF trend is down!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 15min2ndtp.gif Size: 25 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,748
  • May 24, 2012 5:22am May 24, 2012 5:22am
Quoting DharmaTrader
I've been traveling a bit and am just going

It would be great to see some of the 4H trade setups that you are considering or taking, if you can manage it. I think the mental shift here for me is to decide whether:

 

  1. I'm taking the trade off the 4H or LT charts and using the 15M to refine my entry
  2. I'm just entering a short term trade off the 15M and will exit when PA on the 15M indicates a reversal

Hey man. Yeah, you're right but as 131 alluded to the other day, posting live can be a big distraction although really helpful but posting "after the event" charts really distorts the view of the trade. I will try and remember to take more "in the moment" screen shots because I do owe this thread a few more charts. I am away for two weeks in June and plan to try and jump back on the intraday horse more after that. I'll get some more charts thrown up then, 4hrs and M15 promise

Regarding your dilemma, there is no clear answer.

Sometimes, just trading purely off the 15 minute chart will give you a very clear indication that the market is about to turn, way before 1hr or 4hr charts will give you any clue. On other occasions, it'll give you a short signal in an uptrend when there is no supporting LTF reason to trade there and it'll simply be a total fakeout. Trying to spot the difference between the two can be hard.

The safest trades are those when all the ducks are in a row. Your H4, H1 and daily charts are saying go long at this area and then a perfect M15 entry forms. the trouble is, you could wait all day for that and not get it so you have to settle on a happy middle-ground if you want to be busy during the day.

The great beauty of taking M15 entries off of longer TF signals is that you can often get 2 or 3 opportunities to enter the same move. That's two or three lots of profit or two or three chances to make profit off the same basic signal. Once we master that and then master how to add to that winning position once it finally takes off, we can win big very easily.

You have to get used to the fact that the market often likes to "rev up". So when H4 says "go long", it's often the case that your first M15 signal will give you pips and then take them back again. It's then only on the second, third or even fourth push that the true move will actually begin. It took me a long while to wrap my head around that and the fact that on a "valid" 15 minute signal, it may take 3-4 bars before things really start moving and that can be the same for your valid H4 signal too. Only the 3-4 H4 bars are 24-32 M15 bars so you may not even see that move for the whole trading session!

The more I trade, the more i'm convinced that getting your head properly around the integration of ALL timeframes is the key to the very big returns. I doubt many traders really ever master that, not even in the pits but if you can, amazing things are possible.
  • #35,749
  • May 24, 2012 5:25am May 24, 2012 5:25am
here's one that didn't work as well. Took a short on Euro earlier when she closed almost flat on the 50mas- grabbed a quick 10 pips on half at the faster ma's and then got stopped out -4 on the rest. 15min charts of entry and 1st TP below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min1st tp.gif Size: 23 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,750
  • May 24, 2012 5:28am May 24, 2012 5:28am
Quoting Trader131
here's one that didn't work as well. Took a short on Euro earlier when she closed almost flat on the 50mas- grabbed a quick 10 pips on half at the faster ma's and then got stopped out -4 on the rest. 15min charts of entry and 1st TP below
That's great though. If your bad trades at the minute are just a handful of pips rather than a loss, happy flipping days!
  • #35,751
  • May 24, 2012 5:36am May 24, 2012 5:36am
Quoting Trotty
Nice going man, range trading is some of my favourite intraday trading to do. Once you have a handle on the bigger picture, I don't think it's hard at all.

Yet we're always told to stay out of the range :-/

Funny, I was reading another thread on here last night about "5 steps to becoming a successful trader". There is a guy on the forum - Ha-Pattern and he's been very honest about being unprofitable for like 5 years or more now. I just want to pick him up, plonk him down at the start of this thread and tell him "if this doesn't make you profitable,...
You never know- whilst I think this method is the DB's- it may just not fit with his personality. And also there is a hell of a lot of work in reading and screentime to get up to speed with it that will just put a lot of people off. I think the majority of people on these forums are after a get rich quick scheme, and that's just not possible in FX- GET POOR QUICK more like! If you want to make a career of it- like anything else it takes a lot of hard work- no shortcuts.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,752
  • May 24, 2012 5:41am May 24, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Trader131
You never know- whilst I think this method is the DB's- it may just not fit with his personality. And also there is a hell of a lot of work in reading and screentime to get up to speed with it that will just put a lot of people off. I think the majority of people on these forums are after a get rich quick scheme, and that's just not possible in FX- GET POOR QUICK more like! If you want to make a career of it- like anything else it takes a lot of hard work- no shortcuts.
Sure, I absolutely agree with that. There should be something here to suite most tastes though. It can be applied to trading Daily charts, hourly charts or even 5m price action. It's basically just a guide to how to trade the markets, with some moving averages thrown in for good measure!

The dropout rate is without a doubt because of that get rich quick mentality but there are still plenty of folk who approach it in a business like fashion who still have terrible trouble for long periods of time. I suspect some of this is down to being a little too clever. They want to analyse and over analyse everything. They need reasons for everything and supportive data for every move they make. I think being too clever or trying to be too clever about trading could hold you back as much as being too dim
  • #35,753
  • May 24, 2012 5:42am May 24, 2012 5:42am
Quoting Trotty
That's great though. If your bad trades at the minute are just a handful of pips rather than a loss, happy flipping days!
Yes when you put it like that- I suppose it sounds pretty good! I still find myself doing the odd stupid trade, although thankfully much less than I used to, and even worse for me is managing a trade badly- letting it go too far against me- and not cutting it quick enough (usually because I didn't get to my first TP)- that really pisses me off when I let one trade wipe out day's of gains.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,754
  • May 24, 2012 5:46am May 24, 2012 5:46am
Quoting Trader131
Yes when you put it like that- I suppose it sounds pretty good! I still find myself doing the odd stupid trade, although thankfully much less than I used to, and even worse for me is managing a trade badly- letting it go too far against me- and not cutting it quick enough (usually because I didn't get to my first TP)- that really pisses me off when I let one trade wipe out day's of gains.
Is that still happening now?
  • #35,755
  • May 24, 2012 6:00am May 24, 2012 6:00am
Quoting Trotty
Is that still happening now?
Not so much nowadays- it did happen a couple of weeks ago. I know it's really stupid, and it either happens if I forget to put a stop in, which is easy to do with my platform as the interface is pretty basic and not intuitive (bad workmen blame their tools and all that!) or I convince myself to give the trade more space and the next level of support will hold where I add to it- of course it doesn't... So it's really a discipline thing.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,756
  • May 24, 2012 6:39am May 24, 2012 6:39am
I've taken more profit off her at 90 (+49 pips) on Aussie as she seems to be running out of steam at the 1hr62 and resistance. That last 15min close failed to close above the previous wick. Small portion left on with SL at +12
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 15min3rd tp.gif Size: 24 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,757
  • May 24, 2012 6:42am May 24, 2012 6:42am
Quoting Trader131
Not so much nowadays- it did happen a couple of weeks ago. I know it's really stupid, and it either happens if I forget to put a stop in, which is easy to do with my platform as the interface is pretty basic and not intuitive (bad workmen blame their tools and all that!) or I convince myself to give the trade more space and the next level of support will hold where I add to it- of course it doesn't... So it's really a discipline thing.
Crikey, that's every traders nightmare scenario. I guess this is why we want to ideally be shooting for 1:1 minimum on our trades. The most a loser should ever really wipe out is the last winning trade.
  • #35,758
  • May 24, 2012 7:24am May 24, 2012 7:24am
Quoting Trotty
Crikey, that's every traders nightmare scenario. I guess this is why we want to ideally be shooting for 1:1 minimum on our trades. The most a loser should ever really wipe out is the last winning trade.
Yes, it's the demon I'm trying to control at the moment. It's a classic for many traders- I need to define and ACCEPT my risk before every trade. Sometimes, you know you get on a roll, and just eyeball a setup- and take it without properly identifying the SL and TP, and then once the trade has begun to go against you, you make an EMOTIONAL decision to either give it more room or average down, and I need to make sure that these decisions are made without emotion before the trade is taken. I suppose the problem happens because there are many times in discretionary trading when we react to what we see once in a trade. ie maybe take profit sooner/tightening SL if we see price stalling and this sort of thing. I'm generally very good at spotting these things when things are going my way, but on the odd accasion when they aren't that's when I run into trouble.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,759
  • May 24, 2012 7:52am May 24, 2012 7:52am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, it's the demon I'm trying to control at the moment. It's a classic for many traders- I need to define and ACCEPT my risk before every trade. Sometimes, you know you get on a roll, and just eyeball a setup- and take it without properly identifying the SL and TP, and then once the trade has begun to go against you, you make an EMOTIONAL decision to either give it more room or average down, and I need to make sure that these decisions are made without emotion before the trade is taken. I suppose the problem happens because there are many times...
Yep, i've been through most of that at certain stages as well. It's all part of the development curve I believe.

If I have one criticism of a lot of "gurus", particularly the ones who hover around forums, is that they almost forget the difficulties that they had and that everyone has starting out. They often seem to suggest that by just doing x, y and z that they will get similar results to them. A simple factor such as rarely getting at least 1:1 R/R on trades because you're taking profit too easy can kill your progress dead.

My biggest problem used to be moving my stop loss far, far too soon. During the early days, I would literally move it to BE when just a few pips in profit, in the stupid hope that price would just take off and never return to my entry ever again!! Learning to deal with price criss-crossing your entry point is just part of growing up in this business. I look back now and cringe.

I think what helps me with trading is knowing that one single trade is almost irrelevant. In sales I used to put a lot of pressure on myself to close this one deal or get a meeting on this one call. Actually, what really helped me was to learn that keeping cool on those opportunities was the best thing to do and that they really were fairly insignificant in their own right. Things become much easier when you quit worrying. The same rationale can be said of trading. If you make on average 5 entries per day, that's 100+ per month so the importance of that single trade is hardly anything in the grand scheme of this.

Gaining confidence was everything for me. That's why I love the simulator trading so much because it gave me enough confidence to know that 8 times out of 10, i'll guess the direction of the market right. Once you know that for sure, you can give the trade all the room it needs because you'll be right way more than you'll be wrong.

Emotions can be such unhelpful things!
  • #35,760
  • May 24, 2012 7:54am May 24, 2012 7:54am
DBLHC on both 15min charts of euro and cable. I took a long with a tight SL! (as hourly chart still bearish) after the news when price retraced down to the previous 2 bars lows and started turning back up and has now formed a TBLHC! Missed screenshot after I entered, as price moved up quickly but my entry was at 59, and first TP at 79 (screenshot below). SL is at 53 just onder the TBLHC.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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