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EurAnalysis

  • #32,181
  • May 24, 2012 5:19am May 24, 2012 5:19am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Finland is beautiful. I really like Scandinavian countries.
I want to move to Europe one day. One day soon. I see less and less reason to live in the U.S. with each day. Plus it would be great to trade from daylight hours instead of mostly night hours with some morning daylight.

Did I mention how bad the women are here (in general)? If there's one thing that turns a man off, its feminist women, IMO there are lots here

Stop loss missed by 0.7 pips! Come on don't do it to me! Retrace back down to 1.2560 area!

There gonna do it to me... I just know it. Yup, there it is 2577 s/l taken out bastards
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,182
  • May 24, 2012 5:27am May 24, 2012 5:27am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Finland is beautiful. I really like Scandinavian countries.
Winter in february-march is nice if there is snow - overall it feels like frozen hell - normally -20 to -35.

Spring is nice but chilly and wet when snow is melting. Spring flu is very common.

Summer is nice, but mostly rainy. Lot's of mosquitos. And when I said lots - I mean it. Go out side without shirt you'll get 100 of them to you within a minutes. Also there is other flying insects which are quite nasty: gadflies, deer flies etc.

Autumn nice but, rainy and depressing when it's getting dark and gloomy.

Over all weather is very nice.

Here is good introduction:
Inserted Video


We have a good and responsible government which is planning to raise taxes and take more debt in order to cover funds given to bottomless pit of Greece.

Taxes are high and price level is one of the highest in world.
People are suspicious on foreigners and only some are speaking english - even though every kid starts studying it in 3rd grade.

Welcome to Finland - have a nice stay.
  • #32,183
  • May 24, 2012 5:33am May 24, 2012 5:33am
Hello PipTrapper, hello all other members,

I just signed in to this thread and for this is my first post, i would like to greet everybody at first.
Please excuse any mistakes, because english is not my native tongue, but i´ll do my very best with my poor school-english.
I started with FX last year as an autodidact and feel myself still as a newbie lerning the basics. During my efforts of search education in the internet in addition to some books, i readed tons of nonsense (to say it very politely) about FX and saw forums with no content except of fighting and insulting each other.
To make a long story short: Finally i luckily found this thread two weeks ago and since then i was reading, goggling and learning.
What has brought me to wright a post earlier as i wanted to, is the reaction of you PT and other to the question of Fahad.pk91.
Like anytime before, none of you is mocking, instead everybody is trying to take it serious and to help, even if somebody did something silly in the eyes of an experinced trader. That has my greatest respect!
And it encourages me to post an own silly question eventually.
I´m not yet skilled enough to post charts, analysis or any advice, but maybe after more time of learning and practising.
Good trades to you all
mahogany

By the way, i was much more cute than Farhad: I sold at 1.25204 :-))
  • #32,184
  • May 24, 2012 5:35am May 24, 2012 5:35am
I took out all the useless adjectives

Quoting AFXFin
Winter in february-march feels like frozen hell - normally -20 to -35.
Spring is chilly and wet when snow is melting. Spring flu is very common.
Summer is mostly rainy. Lot's of mosquitos. And when I said lots - I mean it. Go out side without shirt you'll get 100 of them to you within a minutes. Also there is other flying insects which are quite nasty: gadflies, deer flies etc.
Autumn, rainy and depressing when it's getting dark and gloomy.
Over all weather is very nice.
Quoting AFXFin
We have a government which is planning to raise taxes and take more debt in order to cover funds given to bottomless pit of Greece.
Taxes are high and price level is one of the highest in world.
People are suspicious on foreigners and only some are speaking english - even though every kid starts studying it in 3rd grade.
Welcome to Finland - have a nice stay.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,185
  • May 24, 2012 5:39am May 24, 2012 5:39am
Yesterday i read an article about Finland
The only way is Finland
  • #32,186
  • May 24, 2012 5:39am May 24, 2012 5:39am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
More Nowotny: Some euro members have problems
Written by Gerry Davies of Forexlive
May 24, 2012 at 09:46 GMT

I’m sayin nuffink
-Euro currency is meeting its’ functions
-Greek crisis is result of economic imbalance
-Greece needs time to recover
-Up to Greeks to implement agreed reforms
-Strict financial necessary to stabilise markets
-Greece problems can’t be compared to others
-Other Southern countries much better than Greece
-ECB hasn’t used full arsenal

This is best announcement I've heard in long time - and it is from Mr. No What Now who normally only speaks BS.

Just makes me wonder... if ECB has more arsenal - why they say that they are doing all they can?
  • #32,187
  • May 24, 2012 5:42am May 24, 2012 5:42am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting mahogany
Hello PipTrapper, hello all other members,

I just signed in to this thread and for this is my first post, i would like to greet everybody at first.
Please excuse any mistakes, because english is not my native tongue, but i´ll do my very best with my poor school-english.
I started with FX last year as an autodidact and feel myself still as a newbie lerning the basics. During my efforts of search education in the internet in addition to some books, i readed tons of nonsense (to say it very politely) about FX and saw forums with no content except...
Welcome!
  • #32,188
  • May 24, 2012 5:48am May 24, 2012 5:48am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting oceanis
Yesterday i read an article about Finland
The only way is Finland
Yeah - I believe that article covers all accomplishments of finns.
Price of apartment in capital is from 5000-20000 €/square meter so remember to bring a fat wallet if you are buying a one.
  • #32,189
  • May 24, 2012 6:02am May 24, 2012 6:02am
shorted 82. 5m yellow has been holding the whole move but i think we are going to roll over here. i hope anyway.

betting pips on it anyway!

should have just followed the algorithm long (yellow line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,190
  • May 24, 2012 6:04am May 24, 2012 6:04am
In the Åland archipelago you have many to choose from. Maybe not the same climate as Malta though...

Quoting AFXFin
OK, I'll get my own forex trading island elsewhere!

Seriously, thanks for invitation. I don't see myself moving to Mediterranean soon. I want my kids to get good finnish education.
  • #32,191
  • May 24, 2012 6:10am May 24, 2012 6:10am
Waiting
ECB President Draghi Speaks...
LTRO3 or down to 12200...??
  • #32,192
  • May 24, 2012 6:17am May 24, 2012 6:17am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting aurel_79
Waiting
ECB President Draghi Speaks...
LTRO3 or down to 12200...??
He's speaking in University in Rome.

I'm not sure if that is so significant. It may just be another speech. Mario is not announcing anything and I doubt he's going to say anything significant.
  • #32,193
  • May 24, 2012 6:20am May 24, 2012 6:20am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting TheSwede
In the Åland archipelago you have many to choose from. Maybe not the same climate as Malta though...
Islands are small and windy. All people are speaking swedish and don't like finns that much. Winters are quite harsh on archipelago. They've been wanting to join to Sweden for ages already and got autonomy in order to stay in finland. You can have Åland if you want. I rather stick in mainland - I like the weather in here.
  • #32,194
  • May 24, 2012 6:39am May 24, 2012 6:39am
You don't have to be a genius to know that the Euro is heading down and heading down hard. However, you should also know by now that these markets don't move in a straight line. At some point we have to have a correction.

The problem is that in times of extreme sentiment, price can (and in fact does) keep going in one direction pausing along the way with barely a 38.2% retrace of each leg as it rages through support/resistance as if they weren't even there. This is what we have experienced for the last 2+ weeks. So when does it get to the point where it makes a significant correction?

Sometimes, you simply don't get one due to a phenomenon I have seen before... like in 2008 and in 2010. It is called the snowball effect and is driven by irrational fear. Are we in that same situation now? Unfortunately we will only know for sure after it is over. Only a psychic can predict where price will be tomorrow. As such I won't even try to speculate on that, but I do know one thing for sure. The odds are slanted to a lower price.

When I trade, I examine everything I can. I do not rely on a basket of technical indicators that form a system of mathematical probabilities. If that was the kind of system I would follow, then I would simply create a trading robot and let it do all the dirty work for me. No, I follow the fundamentals and try to gauge the market psychology. Whilst the economic data is a great indicator of what the market sentiment will be on a given day, one must consider that the market is not always rational in its sentiment. See the problem?

So here we are... Europe is pretty much being dragged through the mud because of countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Ireland and Italy. Actually the only ones that really matter are Spain and Italy. However, the way in which the problems of Greece are handled may set a precedence for how Spain and Italy are handled when (not if) they end up in the same situation (contagion). This is all Euro negative but it is not immediate. It is more like a slow motion car crash that takes years before actual impact.

So back to the question on everyone's mind... Should I sell or should I buy?

My simple answer? Wait for a correction and sell at logical resistance. If you find yourself in trouble (underwater) after selling at resistance, as long as you have not over-leveraged yourself, don't panic. Be patient. Price will come back to you... unless we get some ECB intervention or other good hopiumified news that shoots this pair up... even then, short of a miracle that solves the Euro debt crisis, the ultimate target is down.

Of course, all of the above is just my view. Always best to use your own judgement. That way, if things go wrong for you, you can't blame me

Trade safe everyone.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,195
  • May 24, 2012 6:46am May 24, 2012 6:46am
Quoting aurel_79
Waiting
ECB President Draghi Speaks...
LTRO3 or down to 12200...??
More likely a rate cut to 0.75% or 0.5%

I was thinking about the LTRO3 possibility and I have arrived at the conclusion that it is not so likely in the short term. Why? Because the ECB has not even been able to asses the impact of LTROs 1 & 2 yet. Therefore version 3 would be like driving blind. I know I mentioned LTRO3 a couple of times lately but since then I have had more time to consider it. A rate cut would make more sense, especially if the econ data from all EZ countries continues to disappoint and inflation concerns ease. In his last press conference, Draghi mentioned that the ECB expects inflation to remain stable in the short term and contract after. If inflation does contract (deflation), then that gives the ECB lots of room to cut rates without running the risk of being lambasted by the Bundesbank.

Again, my view
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,196
  • May 24, 2012 6:52am May 24, 2012 6:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
You don't have to be a genius to know that the Euro is heading down and heading down hard. However, you should also know by now that these markets don't move in a straight line. At some point we have to have a correction.

The problem is that in times of extreme sentiment, price can (and in fact does) keep going in one direction pausing along the way with barely a 38.2% retrace of each leg as it rages through support/resistance as if they weren't even there. This is what we have experienced for the last 2+ weeks. So when does it get to the...

As always, very well said PT.
  • #32,197
  • May 24, 2012 6:54am May 24, 2012 6:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
More likely a rate cut to 0.75% or 0.5%

I was thinking about the LTRO3 possibility and I have arrived at the conclusion that it is not so likely in the short term. Why? Because the ECB has not even been able to asses the impact of LTROs 1 & 2 yet. Therefore version 3 would be like driving blind. I know I mentioned LTRO3 a couple of times lately but since then I have had more time to consider it. A rate cut would make more sense, especially if the econ data from all EZ countries continues to disappoint and inflation concerns ease. In his last...

I have also been thinking that the ECB will do a rate cut. When is their next meeting? Or can they do this at any time they see fit?
  • #32,198
  • May 24, 2012 6:55am May 24, 2012 6:55am
Eur looking heavy (last 5m bar and triple top) holding my short at 82
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,199
  • May 24, 2012 7:01am May 24, 2012 7:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
More likely a rate cut to 0.75% or 0.5%
....

Again, my view
If he would do that, in a university speech, that would be a suprise to the market, wouldnt it be?
And if he does lower the interest rate cut, that would be eur negative, on my opinion.
  • #32,200
  • May 24, 2012 7:02am May 24, 2012 7:02am
Quoting AFXFin
Islands are small and windy. All people are speaking swedish and don't like finns that much. Winters are quite harsh on archipelago. They've been wanting to join to Sweden for ages already and got autonomy in order to stay in finland. You can have Åland if you want. I rather stick in mainland - I like the weather in here.
I used to live on the N. Sea Orcadian island of Sanday. Led a simple crofters life. Left it for civilisation and have regretted it ever since.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
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