Symphonie Trader System

EU Weekly Chart

This is an area of strong support. As you can see, 3 attempts have been made to break through, and each time support has held firm. Take care!

Bottom feeding time??? I suggest waiting on major sells at the end of price aktion movements.

The price action on the EURUSD has now reached and retested the 1.26500 bottom that I called for back in Mar 2012 as this was the best estimated touchpoint 4 of the 5 point expanding triangle. I hope that many of you have profited from this crazy stalled pattern and final drop from the 1.33400 mark when I tool my sell orders a the call of the 60 min Symphonie Signal way back in 3 April. I closed my positions last week as price action reached the 1.26750 mark..(alittle early) and I am now looking to buy the eurusd on a Symphonie Signal that is a trendline break on the downchannel 60 min mark.

As I have discussed in my posts my posts #12649, #12535 ,#12232, #12040, #11989, #11461, #11451, #11381, #11131, #10761, #10453, #10174 that ties to the original post #7158; the EURUSD is in an expanding triangle that has played out accurately since Jan 2012. I now look higher to complete the pattern (i.e. touchpoint 5 of 5) at a high in the range of 1.38054.

WHAT???? You really expect the EURUSD to rally with all the problems of the EURO crisis and Greece bursting in the flames?? Answer: Yes, I sincerely believe there will be a rally in the EURUSD that will at a min. close the gap open from 2 weeks ago at 1.30600. Will it take it to 1.38054???...only time and the markt will tell. But RSI and Stochastics say this markt is very very overssold and due for some bounce....no bounce means that something is brewing that could cause a massive drop or total reveral (which I am leaning toward).

Given that the USA Central Bank is now backstoping the ECB's Greece bailout I think it is only a matter of time before that is realized and the dollar takes a dump before the EURO will finally have a much needed hard landing that will send prices to partiy or lower. (see post #12851) But first comes a rally which I think will be fairly fast and dramatic....

Ok....When to buy?? Look to the hourly (60 min) charts and wait for a break of the down trendline channel and a clear Symphonie BUY signal. This I buy as the 5 min charts show BUY. That is my plan and I am sticking to it.

Good Luck and trade well.

Evaluator.:nerd:

P.S. For those wondering....I am remote this week....Spring Holiday week for me.....aaaaah......

Are you looking at candle stick patterns to find a valid reversal, or are you looking at something else?

Hi could someone please help me to the post where I can download the Matrix ver 3.0.1 indicator, I've been trying to find it but I couldn't find it, I'm still using a 1.6 version, but it gives me late signals. Thanks

ah yes rj.. I came crawling back to symphony lol..

I will thoroughly test the addition of the tma bands and will see for myself if they filter out false signals!

Its at the bottom of the first post of the thread, you will see the zip file for the packet and also the matrix 3.01(old sentiment).

Interesting Article since I live in the world of the Electronic currency as most of us do....

Guest Post: Dollar Backwardation

By Tyler Durden
Created 05/23/2012 - 13:51

Submitted and by Keith Weiner of the New Austrian School of Economics
Dollar Backwardation
The current financial crisis, may progress to a phase where people demand and hoard dollar bills but take electronic deposit credits only at a discount which increases until electronic deposit credits are repudiated entirely. The Federal Reserve would be powerless to solve the problem, because while they can create unlimited electronic deposit credits they can’t create unlimited paper dollar bills, “money you can fold” as Professor Antal Fekete calls it. There would be a glut of electronic deposits, but a shortage of dollar bills.
Before the financial crisis metastasized in 2008, Fekete wrote a paper that I think is underappreciated and under-discussed. “Can We Have Inflation and Deflation at the Same Time?” (http://www.safehaven.com/article/8507/can-we-have-inflation-and-deflatio... [9]) In his paper, he discussed the “tectonic rift” between paper Federal Reserve Notes (i.e. dollar bills) and electronic deposits. By statute, the Federal Reserve cannot print dollar bills without collateral (e.g. Treasury bonds). Also, they have limited printing press capacity that is insufficient to keep up with a catastrophic crisis.
He discussed the inverted pyramid of John Exter. Gold is the triangle at the bottom, and then above is silver, dollar bills, and then the various kinds of electronic deposits, stocks, real estate, etc. In a crisis, people want to move from top to bottom of the pyramid, but of course there isn’t enough of the stuff at the bottom.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20pyramid.png
In a scenario in which desperate, panicky people are trying to cope with the enormity of a collapse that they don’t and can’t understand, I think this split between “physical” dollars and “electronic” dollars is very plausible.
Just as there is nothing to be accomplished by selling an underlying security as it becomes worthless, only to buy a derivative of it, selling Treasury bonds and buying dollars is equally nonsensical. The dollar is the Federal Reserve’s liability, backed by the Treasury bond as the asset. If you believe the Treasury bond is worthless, then you ascribe no value to the dollar either. This is why gold will go into permanent backwardation. Holders of dollars will provide an unlimited bid for gold that will not be reciprocated by holders of gold. The latter own the only safe asset, and the only monetary asset that is not ultimately backed by the Treasury bond or the dollar, and they will have no desire to give it up.
The concept of backwardation is simple. It is when people accept a future promise to deliver only at a discount to physical stuff handed over right now. This could be when there is a shortage, such as wheat before the harvest. Or in the case of gold, backwardation signifies a collapse in trust. But isn’t this the same phenomenon of a tectonic rift between paper dollars and electronic deposits?
In a certain sense, the “money you can fold” behaves like a physical commodity, a present good (I realize I am stretching the concept here more than a bit). The electronic deposit credit is most definitely a future promise. In my gold backwardation thesis, the action begins with the offer on the futures contract falling below the bid on spot gold. The bid-ask spread on spot gold widens, as the offer is relentlessly advancing, pulling the bid behind it. The bid-ask spread on the futures contract also widens, as the offer remains stubbornly high, but the bid withdraws and retreats as gold buyers don’t trust futures and buy physical gold instead. Eventually, there are no more sellers of physical gold and that is that (except for the dollar-commodities-gold arbitrage, a backdoor way for dollar holders to get a little gold before the end of the game).
If this split occurs in the dollar, I think it will play out the same way. At first, sellers of real goods may accept electronic credit money, but demand a higher price. The spread on the electronic dollar widens, with the bid from real goods falling. At the same time, virtually unlimited demand for the “real” paper you can fold causes the bid on the paper dollar to rise.
Who knows how long it could last? People could go on accepting paper dollars out of long habit. Obviously, this is an unstable situation that must necessarily collapse. Unlike gold, the paper dollar has no value other than the broken promises that back it.
I dub this “dollar backwardation”.

Yeah candle pattern as well as general pa behaviour.....

I just made the comment because you yourself said that your system hopping days were over....next minute!!!! Of course you need to choose whatever suits you, but you know that jumping around will not bring consistency no matter which system you choose.

Thanks for understanding re the template

Hi, could someone maybe help me with the problem I have on the New Matrix indicator, trend is missing and it doesn't look like it's changing as it should. Here is the screenshot.

And if I were you I would use v3.01(old sentiment) matrix not v3.0, but you need to add all the indicators from the v3 zip thats attached to the first post.

Thanks yelena, I added the trend indicator onto my chart and that fixed the problem I had with the matrix, thanks.

Down something like 50 today

im sowee to hear that *bear hug*

but you're always above 150 so it's okay. as long as you close the week in green you'll be alright!

I missed the news drop completely today.....lol......never mind.....plenty more action to come

took a sell on EJ right on the line.. was a full symphony signal at the time and stochastics was coming down from overbought.. now sentiment has repainted. looked like a good bounce from the 60 sma too.. still in it since it was taken in direction of trend ..anyone want to comment ? sorry if its blurry I screenshotted it on a 42" tv

Whats your trendline setting?

50.. using the settings from post 1

I personally don't like that setting, I use 20,5 for everything, take a look at my M5 EJ at the same time, why 50 is classed as safer I have no idea.

k thanks.. m5 is showing bearish divergence now so I'm still in..