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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #32,081
  • May 23, 2012 4:25pm May 23, 2012 4:25pm
here come the conferences life
  • #32,082
  • May 23, 2012 4:49pm May 23, 2012 4:49pm
Drop of EU by 20pips after the conferences
Concluded they want Greece to stay in EU
but Greece need to keep commitment's

I would say EU should reached 1.2540~1.2550 before moving up
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  • #32,083
  • May 23, 2012 7:50pm May 23, 2012 7:50pm
morning =) , eur on C move now i think
redsword11, IfMyante, KennyZ, bumapatria, JohnPaul77 made my trading style.
  • #32,084
  • May 23, 2012 9:29pm May 23, 2012 9:29pm
well i got 1.25915, although i would have liked to use more than 2x leverage. :/ hopefully it can go back up there again before london open, but that doesn't seem likely

and good evening to all
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,085
  • May 23, 2012 10:00pm May 23, 2012 10:00pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
I'm not comfortable shorting here. More time without correction - more risk on short. Today is a news day, which makes price volatile and any good, will pop price to totally new levels.

Tomorrow is friday - another crazy day, which will certainly start correction.

So - as soon as I see a sign, I'll be long.
  • #32,086
  • May 23, 2012 10:05pm May 23, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting AFXFin
I'm not comfortable shorting here. More time without correction - more risk on short. Today is a news day, which makes price volatile and any good, will pop price to totally new levels.

Tomorrow is friday - another crazy day, which will certainly start correction.

So - as soon as I see a sign, I'll be long.
My think 2....2 many are short..
  • #32,087
  • May 23, 2012 10:36pm May 23, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting AFXFin
I'm not comfortable shorting here. More time without correction - more risk on short. Today is a news day, which makes price volatile and any good, will pop price to totally new levels.

Tomorrow is friday - another crazy day, which will certainly start correction.

So - as soon as I see a sign, I'll be long.
Quoting danc
My think 2....2 many are short..
This is very much in line with how I think also. However it may be different this time. If this is one of those meltdowns we have seen in 2008 and 2010, then buying (unless for a quick scalp) is probable suicide. I agree that the further down price goes, the riskier selling becomes, but right now I think buying is a bigger risk than that.

my 2 cents.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,088
  • May 23, 2012 10:45pm May 23, 2012 10:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This is very much in line with how I think also. However it may be different this time. If this is one of those meltdowns we have seen in 2008 and 2010, then buying (unless for a quick scalp) is probable suicide. I agree that the further down price goes, the riskier selling becomes, but right now I think buying is a bigger risk than that.

my 2 cents.
I agree, buying the day after a break of the yearly lows, not a good idea. IMO. Unless you got yesterdays daily S2 with a tight stop
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,089
  • May 23, 2012 11:15pm May 23, 2012 11:15pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
This is very much in line with how I think also. However it may be different this time. If this is one of those meltdowns we have seen in 2008 and 2010, then buying (unless for a quick scalp) is probable suicide. I agree that the further down price goes, the riskier selling becomes, but right now I think buying is a bigger risk than that.

my 2 cents.
Once you see a confirmation suitable to your self, you enter and if it is not good entry you close it. That's how it goes.

Here I can see technical level for correction, but fundamentally we may expect even lower. My opinion is that Greeks can go hell along with their euro.

EU summit gave totally wrong signal to the market, though every participant individually played "bad boy" and gave harsh opinions on situation.

In the end after hours of waiting, our poodle Herman came out and gave lifeless diplomatic speech talking about goodwill and good intentions - without any direct lining on politics - not very convincing when market does need much more to be convinced.

Like said before - big part of crisis is media and caused by leaders giving speeches like this.

We need strong leaders to take us from this pit - not these smiling poodles.
  • #32,090
  • May 23, 2012 11:17pm May 23, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I agree, buying the day after a break of the yearly lows, not a good idea. IMO.
I will watch potential pullback to 2620 level, and decide there. On any sign of bounce back down, I will short from it. If nothing fundamental is changed, no reason for any trader to close short IMO. It requires some good news, not fear and indecision, even for short covering. You can see that everywhere, on currencies, stocks, commodities...
  • #32,091
  • May 23, 2012 11:23pm May 23, 2012 11:23pm
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,092
  • May 23, 2012 11:27pm May 23, 2012 11:27pm
Today's option expiries at 14:00 GMT

1.3000
1.2900
1.2850
1.2830
1.2700
1.2600
1.2525
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,093
  • May 23, 2012 11:27pm May 23, 2012 11:27pm
Can outside reversal formations be used on any time frame or are they best on daily.

Cheers.
Over thinking over analyzing separates the body from the mind.
  • #32,094
  • May 23, 2012 11:30pm May 23, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting 3stepsahead
Can outside reversal formations be used on any time frame or are they best on daily.

Cheers.
They can be used in any time frame but then you have to also use them in their proper context. A reversal in the M1 time frame is like a few ticks in the H1 time frame
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,095
  • May 23, 2012 11:31pm May 23, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting Chika Kure
I will watch potential pullback to 2620 level, and decide there. On any sign of bounce back down, I will short from it. If nothing fundamental is changed, no reason for any trader to close short IMO. It requires some good news, not fear and indecision, even for short covering. You can see that everywhere, on currencies, stocks, commodities...
As long as gold holds 1530, I think Euro will hang on here. 1.2525 seems like a solid bottom point though.

When gold hits 1530 and rebounds, I think Euro will rebound with it. 1530 gold retest seems like it would put Euro at that 1.2525 area.

This formation looks bullish. Lots of consolidation, retest of the low area, and surging higher.

As always we will see what London brings.

I don't feel as comfortable with my short right now though :/, even though im only at 1% risk per 100 pips.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #32,096
  • May 24, 2012 12:14am May 24, 2012 12:14am
All times are PTT (GMT+2)

Today's key EZ econ data releases.
We're not off to a good start, are we?
Let's see how's Germany's numbers come out.
Previous numbers were already revised down.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,097
  • May 24, 2012 12:28am May 24, 2012 12:28am
So last night was a total flop. The EU Summit was nothing more than a fancy dinner full of disagreement and no resolutions on anything. Yes I realize the objective was only to discuss ideas for the next summit in June, but really all they did was re-iterate the same BS...

The "haves" don't want to give plus they want the "have-nots" to sacrifice more.
The "have-nots" want to take from the "haves" and not give back anything.

We've been listening to this for three years now. Enough is enough. I think it's time for a change of guard. Either join in a true fiscal union, or let the "have-nots" go and fend for themselves. Don't say "we don't want you to leave" and then stand by and watch the people suffer. wtf???

Anyway, I'm not going to go on about this coz I'll never stop

Bottom line is we are in a status quo.

Let's see what the market thinks about it.

Technically we are extremely oversold. I don't need to go into the details on that. All of you who have been trading for at least 24 hours, should already recognize it. The rest of you who just started today, please visit http://babypips.com/school

Here's my H4 chart on E/U. To determine direction, flip a coin. Long for heads and short for tails. I got tails.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,098
  • May 24, 2012 12:32am May 24, 2012 12:32am
Bad news AGAIN.
Market is oversold, BUT these levels was before. EU was bellow 1.19 before. I sense PANIC in the air. Really sad that I missed short from DP retest. but hey, its a long day.

addon: EU at Yesterday low... what will hapen here...

addon2: yep, a real shocker... gone bellow...
  • #32,099
  • May 24, 2012 12:35am May 24, 2012 12:35am
Quoting Chika Kure
Bad news AGAIN.
Market is oversold, BUT these levels was before. EU was bellow 1.19 before. I sense PANIC in the air. Really sad that I missed short from DP retest. but hey, its a long day.

addon: EU at Yesterday low... what will hapen here...
I think that the way things are going, there is no need to be precise or creative with your entries. Just sell from where ever you feel comfortable and use the highs as a stop loss.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,100
  • May 24, 2012 12:36am May 24, 2012 12:36am
Quoting Chika Kure

addon2: yep, a real shocker... gone bellow...
It will break... and hold.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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