Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1787 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,721
  • May 23, 2012 8:22am May 23, 2012 8:22am
Getting conflicting signals on the charts at the moment. That last push into the close on the hourly and 4hrly candles on the usd pairs printed potentially bullish for the 4 hr, whilst the hourly and 15mins still point lower ie hangman on cable 1hr and pin on euro 15min. From what I see, I think she's going down short term, but maybe then a higher low or double bottom, then up (but waiting for PA first)- if that makes any sense
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,722
  • May 23, 2012 8:54am May 23, 2012 8:54am
Quoting Trader131
Getting conflicting signals on the charts at the moment. That last push into the close on the hourly and 4hrly candles on the usd pairs printed potentially bullish for the 4 hr, whilst the hourly and 15mins still point lower ie hangman on cable 1hr and pin on euro 15min. From what I see, I think she's going down short term, but maybe then a higher low or double bottom, then up (but waiting for PA first)- if that makes any sense
Perfect sense and that's the key for me to blending the TFs. It being able to spot when you have the right signal to go short even though you believe it's gong to be short lived and all the while your short is on, you'll be waiting for a long signal (and visa-versa of course). That secret is why these guys were pulling in so many damn pips.

I'm still fairly short biased on cable at the minute.
  • #35,723
  • May 23, 2012 9:14am May 23, 2012 9:14am
Here's the short euro I took after that 15min pin failed to close below the channel top. Didn't think it would go too far after seeing that last 4hr print, but just closed the last part here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,724
  • May 23, 2012 9:21am May 23, 2012 9:21am
Bugger closed too soon again! That 4hr low's been taken out, so much for the double bottom theory from the 4hr close. Longs are off the table now
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,725
  • May 23, 2012 9:31am May 23, 2012 9:31am
Quoting Trader131
Bugger closed too soon again! That 4hr low's been taken out, so much for the double bottom theory from the 4hr close. Longs are off the table now
I had a short running on cable, just closed that out on the high volume pin. Possible that we may get a bit of upside now....
  • #35,726
  • May 23, 2012 9:39am May 23, 2012 9:39am
Yes, I saw that too. Nice short! Cable's stronger than Euro or Aussie. No lower low there... yet
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,727
  • May 23, 2012 9:41am May 23, 2012 9:41am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, I saw that too. Nice short! Cable's stronger than Euro or Aussie. No lower low there... yet
Closed too early of course, que sara. The bears are still well in command here....
  • #35,728
  • May 23, 2012 9:56am May 23, 2012 9:56am
Quoting Trotty
Closed too early of course, que sara. The bears are still well in command here....
Still looks like buying takng place down there to me.....
  • #35,729
  • May 23, 2012 10:12am May 23, 2012 10:12am
Yes, definitely buyers in that wick from this morning. I went long at 5700 just before the boys got back from school. When the chart looked like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 20 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,730
  • May 23, 2012 10:15am May 23, 2012 10:15am
Covered 1/2 at +12 and moved Sl to -8
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,731
  • May 23, 2012 10:18am May 23, 2012 10:18am
Quoting Trader131
Covered 1/2 at +12 and moved Sl to -8
Nice going, fingers crosed for you. Tough to get a nice entry on that sort of pa, you have done well to snaffle anything
  • #35,732
  • May 23, 2012 10:32am May 23, 2012 10:32am
Quoting Trotty
Nice going, fingers crosed for you. Tough to get a nice entry on that sort of pa, you have done well to snaffle anything
Thanks- it didn't retrace as far down the wick as I had hoped, but when I saw price struggling to break south through the figure I pulled the trigger. Not looking great at the moment, though I'm glad I'm covered and it was worth a shot. Markets are slowing now, but I'll leave it on for now.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,733
  • May 23, 2012 10:55am May 23, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Trotty
Hi Dharma,

Please, keep your charts coming. You and 131 are a credit to the ethos of this thread right now and by comparison, my contribution is woeful right now. I have my excuses, I did a 550 mile round trip yesterday and believe me, in the UK that is quite a trek. We must have the most congested roads in Europe

Two things I just wanted to point out about your recent charts. Number one, I actually happen to think your EU entry the other day was a very good one. I trade off price action like that more and more these days....
I've been traveling a bit and am just going through the thread to catch up.

Trotty,

Thanks for your input. Looking back through my trades, I have been able to identify good areas to enter but just need to pay more attention to PA as each candle closes and then use that information to either confirm my thoughts on the trade or reconsider.

It would be great to see some of the 4H trade setups that you are considering or taking, if you can manage it. I think the mental shift here for me is to decide whether:

 

  1. I'm taking the trade off the 4H or LT charts and using the 15M to refine my entry
  2. I'm just entering a short term trade off the 15M and will exit when PA on the 15M indicates a reversal

In case 1 I would get my stop to B/E and then let the 4H chart play out. It's easy to think that you can "always" exit and then get back in but on a trade that is based off the LT charts I've found that getting back in is often difficult, often because I'm not at my screen when the next entry presents itself.


Case 2 has the appeal that I can grab the pips that are on offer and get out and not have to keep checking back in on the trade.


Anyway, it's great to see the ongoing discussion here.


131,

Keep the charts coming. Since I am in the US, it's great to review the trades that you've identified overnight when I start my day. Thanks.

  • #35,734
  • May 23, 2012 11:54am May 23, 2012 11:54am
Quoting DharmaTrader
I've been traveling a bit and am just going through the thread to catch up.

Trotty,

Thanks for your input. Looking back through my trades, I have been able to identify good areas to enter but just need to pay more attention to PA as each candle closes and then use that information to either confirm my thoughts on the trade or reconsider.

It would be great to see some of the 4H trade setups that you are considering or taking, if you can manage it. I think the mental shift here for me is to decide whether:
[list=1][*]I'm taking the trade...
Got stopped out on cable. Still looks like there are buyers left at these levels, but the next 4hr closing is not helping the bulls. I'm done for the day. Glad you like the charts, Dharma! I think you should aim to trade both ways you have indicated.I know just trading the 15min is appealing, but in order to stack the odds in your favour you have to watch the higher tf's too.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,735
  • May 23, 2012 3:37pm May 23, 2012 3:37pm
I know I said I'd stopped trading for today, but I saw the last hourly candle close on Euro and couldn't resist a short.

Rather than posting my entries live as I have in the past, I'd rather take a screen shot at the time for posting later when I get the chance, as the posting can get in the way sometimes, and can add extra unwanted pressure to my trade. I hope that's ok with everyone- I think the important thing is to be able to see what the chart looks like as you enter, rather than showing an obvious (in hindsight trade).

Anyway I took the short straight after the hourly closed flat against that trendline and below the 10ma(the 15min also was a flat close aginst the 35sma). My entry price was 2599
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1hr.gif Size: 22 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,736
  • May 23, 2012 3:42pm May 23, 2012 3:42pm
I've taken first profit here as price touched the 10 ma on the 15min chart at 81 for +18 pips and moved my stop to tight above the last highs at 2605. 15 min chart. 15min chart below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min1st tp.gif Size: 24 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,737
  • May 23, 2012 3:54pm May 23, 2012 3:54pm
Cable had a similar setup at the time, which I didn't take -a flat top on hourly close against the 10ma and a hangman on the 15min against both 50 ma's (blue). Cable 1hr and 15min charts below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable1hr.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 20 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,738
  • May 23, 2012 4:10pm May 23, 2012 4:10pm
At this point- seeing that the fast 15min ma's have held I'm prepared for a bounce up, and potentially a higher high, so have moved my SL to BE (99), as we've fallen a long way- I was just trying to catch the last wave of selling, but it's not very strong and the end of the day now, better to protect your capital
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15minslbe.gif Size: 25 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,739
  • May 23, 2012 4:14pm May 23, 2012 4:14pm
Right off to bed now and I'm sure I'll be stopped, but I'm not giving anything back now. I've set a TP at 61 in case I get lucky and I'm not talking about with the mrs!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,740
  • May 23, 2012 4:21pm May 23, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting Trader131
Right off to bed now and I'm sure I'll be stopped, but I'm not giving anything back now. I've set a TP at 61 in case I get lucky and I'm not talking about with the mrs!
Good luck pal.....on both counts
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