LJ Forex Group | Page 86 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

JPY Group - Best Group to Trade 60 replies

Your experience with Forex.com [GAIN Capital Group, LLC] 37 replies

Forex Techniques Development Group 24 replies

FOREX, Robert Gray, FXLQ, and Nfa/ctfc... PLEASE REPOST IN EVERY GROUP 0 replies

Attachments: LJ Forex Group
Exit Attachments

LJ Forex Group

  • #1,701
  • May 23, 2012 6:42am May 23, 2012 6:42am
Quoting Balhana
Nice trade! BTW, what do you mean by floorpivot? I have no idea what it is.
Floorpivots are mathematically calculated using the H,L and C from previous daily bar, lots of traders use these pivots as intraday targets, me also. Google "floorpivot" and you'll gets lots of info
Pipcrawler
  • #1,702
  • May 23, 2012 8:01am May 23, 2012 8:01am
Quoting xmzhang
Floorpivots are mathematically calculated using the H,L and C from previous daily bar, lots of traders use these pivots as intraday targets, me also. Google "floorpivot" and you'll gets lots of info

Thanks a lot. I've tried it if that is floorpivot.

Shorted UCAD at 1.0221, SL @ 1.0250.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD 30M 01.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #1,703
  • May 23, 2012 9:14am May 23, 2012 9:14am
Quoting Balhana
Thanks a lot. I've tried it if that is floorpivot.

Shorted UCAD at 1.0221, SL @ 1.0250.
Stopped out for -29 pips (-58 pips in total).
  • #1,704
  • May 23, 2012 11:47am May 23, 2012 11:47am
Quoting Balhana
Stopped out for -29 pips (-58 pips in total).
Yea, the risk aversion news out of Europe today took you out. The moves on the EU, EJ and really alll the majors this morning was pretty violent.

You can see on the 1H chart how price got to your entry and appeared to be turning and heading down south. And then the news came out and the USD was the safe haven.

What was your original TP?
  • #1,705
  • May 23, 2012 12:39pm May 23, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Yea, the risk aversion news out of Europe today took you out. The moves on the EU, EJ and really alll the majors this morning was pretty violent.

You can see on the 1H chart how price got to your entry and appeared to be turning and heading down south. And then the news came out and the USD was the safe haven.

What was your original TP?
Hi unlv-tj,

My origional TP was 1.0160ish level (the green box on my previous chart).

I was watching EN for short entry but I couldn't do anything for a while due to the UCAD trade. But it is OK. I'm now drinking some beer... no more trading for today.
  • #1,706
  • May 23, 2012 12:42pm May 23, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting Balhana
Hi unlv-tj,

My origional TP was 1.0160ish level (the green box on my previous chart).

I was watching EN for short entry but I couldn't do anything for a while due to the UCAD trade. But it is OK. I'm now drinking some beer... no more trading for today.
I also was tempted to short UCHF but .... Don't you think it is quite similar to my recent EJ trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF 5M.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #1,707
  • May 23, 2012 1:51pm May 23, 2012 1:51pm
Yea, the USDCAD was a tough one. I didn't even notice it I was so busy looking at other things.

Look back price is turning nicely at a daily S/D area. Sort of a double top. If we had a false break there, then I definetly would have wanted to be in the trade.

The risk aversion news simply took you out on this one.
  • #1,708
  • May 23, 2012 2:08pm May 23, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Yea, the USDCAD was a tough one. I didn't even notice it I was so busy looking at other things.

Look back price is turning nicely at a daily S/D area. Sort of a double top. If we had a false break there, then I definetly would have wanted to be in the trade.

The risk aversion news simply took you out on this one.
Yes, I was also tempted to short UCAD again at the daily S/D.

In the end, I shorted UCHF on QM at 0.9561, SL to BE+1 now, and set my TP @ 0.9540. I'm a bit drunk. I'm going to bed now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF 5M (2).jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #1,709
  • May 23, 2012 2:20pm May 23, 2012 2:20pm
Looks like I've got some reading to catch up on - I just get too busy in the Trading Room during the day to keep up with other stuff like emails, twitter and this thread - will try and post some more stuff during the day going forward.

Mostly a quiet day today with the main setups being dominated by False Breakouts. There were setups on EJ, GJ, EU, UCHF earlier - all were on the risky side of what I would normally trade but I went in with positions on GJ and EU.

EU was certainly riskier than GU, the main thing going for EU was the major previous low on the daily that was the reference point. GJ was certainly a more standard setup with a big false break of a clear recent swing low.

I had to make a decision and place orders in a hurry and thus ended up placing my SL in a poor place on GJ below the bar low - really the SL should have been placed below the previous swing low allowing for a small spike below as per where I marked. The only obvious place to put a SL on EU was below the false breakout bar low.

I took 80% off on GJ at the FLR and the rest around BE (this was below a support level on the LTF's). EU I held to see if the 4HR pin on the Oanda feed could play out but it didn't and it became clear the market was heading lower so I cut the trade. Ended up with a combined +1.1R win.

Just a general note about false breakouts because it is clear to me many aren't grasping a) what is happens in a false breakout and b) how price should behave.

1. A false breakout is made up of a sellers/buyers trap and potentially (but not in all cases) a significant trigger of stop loss orders.

2. If you understand the above in detail then you should know who is participating in the market, what orders they have in place and thus the order flow that is occurring to cause the false break and the order flow that is occurring after the false break to produce the bounce back in the opposite direction.

If you fully understand the above then you'll know that after a true false breakout price should NEVER move beyond the previous false break low (in a long setup) - if it does then the previous bar wasn't a true false break - it's completely illogical if you understand the order-flow!

Knowledge of this is why I can put a SL where I marked on the GJ chart for example and why my SL's go beyond the false breakout bar in a WORSE case scenario - because I know in a true false break price shouldn't test this area again. This of course helps tremendously in creating value in a trade (i.e. risk/reward) and value at the end of the day is the most important metric you'll ever need (NOT win rate!).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjtrade.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,710
  • May 23, 2012 2:25pm May 23, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Looks like I've got some reading to catch up on - I just get too busy in the Trading Room during the day to keep up with other stuff like emails, twitter and this thread - will try and post some more stuff during the day going forward.

Mostly a quiet day today with the main setups being dominated by False Breakouts. There were setups on EJ, GJ, EU, UCHF earlier - all were on the risky side of what I would normally trade but I went in with positions on GJ and EU.

EU was certainly riskier than GU, the main thing going for EU was the major previous...
Why EU over UCHF...they are both highly inversely correlated so no need to trade both. Why not EJ ...the answer should be clear from a comparison chart of GJ (on the left) and EJ below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjversusej.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #1,711
  • Edited 4:32pm May 23, 2012 4:21pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting xmzhang
Closed partially @ flloorpivot S1, move SL to BE+1 ........
Just came home from work, and yes price has stopped my remaining small position out @ BE+1
Pipcrawler
  • #1,712
  • May 23, 2012 4:30pm May 23, 2012 4:30pm
Limit order of ozzie trade tiggered, took full profit at pivot S1, could've made twice as much if closed @ 9700 a more obvious target, which was the flagpole projection target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xmz1.jpg Size: 167 KB
Pipcrawler
  • #1,713
  • May 23, 2012 5:21pm May 23, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting Fx7877
Hi Balhana,
I wld like to ask when we see a few demand zones just below (as in your trade example here), which zone do we take and where best to place the stop?
Btw is that an indi that draws the daily close & mark out? If it is, can u pls share the indi? Thks!


LJ,
can u share some experience here with regards to my question above based on Balhana's trade?
Do you mean the zones on this chart?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post5689232

If so then they are two very different zones so I'd trade them separately.

The only time I'd look to trade zones together and scale into an overall position if we have stacked SD zones on top of each other and they would have to be strong untested zones.

Otherwise for the most part I'm just either putting my SL the other side of the zone I'm trading or more often than not I can find a tighter SL by zooming in...for example if it's a H4 zone then I should be able to zoom in and find a logical place to put my SL that increases the value in my trade without decreasing it's probability.
  • #1,714
  • May 23, 2012 5:49pm May 23, 2012 5:49pm
before closing down I always scroll through my charts and I saw this awesome Fiber PA setup. The beauty of pure PA-trading, PA at its finest, so uncomplicated and pure without fancy indicators and other rubbish, just plain understanding of the structure of pricemovement. You'll need only one such a setup and the day is done. Goodnight
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xmz1.jpg Size: 181 KB
Pipcrawler
  • #1,715
  • May 23, 2012 10:44pm May 23, 2012 10:44pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Why EU over UCHF...they are both highly inversely correlated so no need to trade both. Why not EJ ...the answer should be clear from a comparison chart of GJ (on the left) and EJ below.
Very nice explanation! To be honest, I find it hard to spot your FB setups in real-time. I usually hesitate to get in even if I spot it... Will test them in demo later to see if they work for me.
  • #1,716
  • May 24, 2012 1:02am May 24, 2012 1:02am
Quoting Balhana
Very nice explanation! To be honest, I find it hard to spot your FB setups in real-time. I usually hesitate to get in even if I spot it... Will test them in demo later to see if they work for me.
The best time to look for FB's are in ranging markets, you'll always find the easiest opportunities when price is ranging compared to going against a strong trend i.e. an FB off an SR range.

Two recent examples attached...notice a) price is in a range and b) price behaves as it SHOULD - it doesn't come back to test the FB bar low - not even close and of course holds the SR level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FB1.png Size: 7 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FB3.png Size: 12 KB
  • #1,717
  • May 24, 2012 1:13am May 24, 2012 1:13am
There are other things to consider too in terms of whether a breakout is being primed rather than a move in the other direction but that should be pretty simple to figure out.

Trading FB's against previous swings in a strong trend is much harder because there are other factors that need to be considered. People are all too quick to create a mechanical strategy out of a well known order-flow concept (amongst professionals - retail knowledge of order-flow is still rather limited on the whole) - but price action trading isn't mechanical it's about being logical and objective, something which a lot of people don't realise or can't grasp.

You need to consider how price left the previous swing and how price is approaching the swing again - why, because this tells us a lot about the chances a) supply / demand being left at the original swing and b) whether there is a material chance that the FB is just supply / demand consumption.

The examples below are an example of demand consumption occurring before the FB. Does this mean the setup won't work out - not necessarily but it increases the uncertainty in the setup, then it's down to each traders own threshold as to whether they want to risk money on such a setup - for me, I wouldn't because it's more of a 50:50 gamble.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FB2.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FB4.png Size: 10 KB
  • #1,718
  • May 24, 2012 1:33am May 24, 2012 1:33am
Final post for now on this subject (it is the subject of a fair amount of the emails I receive).

Dow futures from last night - a great time of day for retracements in the indices.

The first two bars marked pierce the previous swing low, these aren't FB's in my book - there is too much uncertainty as to whether this is demand consumption or a true sellers trap. So what happens next price dips further and again closes back above the previous swing low. This is the FB bar - why, because if the two previous bars were demand consumption then price should have headed lower on this material move below the swing low - the fact it couldn't and the FB was material enough to entice sellers in to believing price was heading down is the REAL sign that the sellers trap has now occurred.

Notice once again that the SL can be placed at the bar low because we now know price shouldn't be heading back towards this area again - the order-flow that is happening tells us this.

Over the long term being mechanical in your approach to price action trading will bring you limited success at best. Long term success comes from understanding what is actually happening and how to objectively evaluate a setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FB5.png Size: 9 KB
  • #1,719
  • Edited 3:53am May 24, 2012 3:21am | Edited 3:53am
An example of a perfect FB setup on NU this morning.

Clear SR, clear FB of the range - what does price do it moves straight down without even coming close to testing the FB bar high - this is a perfect FB setup. Stops have been triggered and it's clear buyers would have been enticed to go long on the break of this SR.

BTW this isn't a TF you'll find on any of your charts. I just shifted the TF along to show the setup.

The next chart is the H1 chart and shows something else...there is no FB setup right, price hit supply fell, but closed above the SR...no setup, we move on.

This is what a mechanical trader does...a true pro trader realises that this could still be a trap and that the H1 TF is just an arbitrary snapshot of a certain H1 timeframe and nothing more...thinking outside the box.

There are so many vendors out there who sell mechanical systems, you know the ones that bombard you with emails, make $10000 per day for just couple hours work. The reason these exist is because people fall for it because people are so naive when it comes money making opportunities. The same goes for the less subtle marketed systems. People need to open their eyes and realise that there is no short-cut to success in this business and that the professional price action trader does not make any money consistently over the long term by trading mechanically - the only people lining their pockets teaching mechanical systems are the vendors selling such rubbish!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU-FB1.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NU-FB2.png Size: 26 KB
  • #1,720
  • May 24, 2012 3:48am May 24, 2012 3:48am
Good morning lovejoy80,

just a short post saying thank you, I enjoy your posts very much and they are extremely valuable for REAL price action understanding.

BTW: I noticed the 1hr on NZDUSD was additionally a poke back to the trendline established on Daily/Weekly.

Thank you for all and please never retire !

michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-05-24_1040_NZDUSD_D.jpg Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-05-24_1043_NZDUSD_1HR.jpg Size: 92 KB
Be like water.
9 traders viewing now