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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #31,941
  • May 23, 2012 6:24am May 23, 2012 6:24am
Quoting BFSGcapital
4HR pin bar/hammer, whatever you want to call it. on EJ. , closed for +170 total, thanks PT!!

here's what I have for EU

never erase major trendlines, they act as support long after they are broken as resistance.
100% true on that one
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,942
  • May 23, 2012 6:25am May 23, 2012 6:25am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
That's a good spot. I'm seeing 1.2695 (38.2% fibo) from the last H/L. If that breaks, we'll see where PA ends up according to fib.

E/J, I'm just holding tight on the 102.00 open position..
Did you take partial profit on it?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,943
  • May 23, 2012 6:27am May 23, 2012 6:27am
almost scalped EU at 1.285 with 20x leverage... there was just no way it was going to keep surging through strong resistance. kicking myself for not doing it now as we have a 15m g.doji
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,944
  • May 23, 2012 6:31am May 23, 2012 6:31am
Quoting BFSGcapital
4HR pin bar/hammer, whatever you want to call it. on EJ. , closed for +170 total, thanks PT!!

here's what I have for EU

never erase major trendlines, they act as support long after they are broken as resistance.
Congratulations and you're welcome.

I often don't post these types of trades as I know many might follow me and I don't want to be responsible for an inexperienced trader over-leveraging themselves and not being able to handle the draw down. However in this case, it was a very low risk trade. The 103.5 mental stop loss I mentioned was just to make sure that whoever followed me did not jump in blindly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,945
  • May 23, 2012 6:31am May 23, 2012 6:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
100% true on that one


Thank you again! ~0.8% gain (much more than I thought I would get out of it, 100 pips at 0.5%)
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,946
  • May 23, 2012 6:32am May 23, 2012 6:32am
Quoting BFSGcapital
4HR pin bar/hammer, whatever you want to call it. on EJ. , closed for +170 total, thanks PT!!

here's what I have for EU

never erase major trendlines, they act as support long after they are broken as resistance.
took 94 pips as well
waiting to move to hit 101.9 to short again
  • #31,947
  • May 23, 2012 6:33am May 23, 2012 6:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Did you take partial profit on it?
Yep, small partial near the 100.40 area. Thx bud.
  • #31,948
  • May 23, 2012 6:34am May 23, 2012 6:34am
I'm Eastern time US, so not up at 4 - 4:30 (usually), but have noticed many days when get up that E/U frequently seems to be at an extreme short term high or low about then, which is then faded for awhile. Haven't quantified that... but can someone explain what's happening? Or has someone studied that & concluded the observation isn't statistically accurate?
  • #31,949
  • May 23, 2012 6:35am May 23, 2012 6:35am
Quoting BFSGcapital
almost scalped EU at 1.285 with 20x leverage... there was just no way it was going to keep surging through strong resistance. kicking myself for not doing it now as we have a 15m g.doji
Some advice to you... Keep emotions in check. Never worry about what you did not take. There will be much more for the taking.

Remember that trades should be planned in advance. Seeing a missed opportunity afterwards is no reason to kick yourself. Rather it is an opportunity to learn from it and look for similar opportunities in the future. Therefore, I think you should pat yourself on the back for seeing it and noting it for the future
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,950
  • May 23, 2012 6:35am May 23, 2012 6:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Congratulations and you're welcome.

I often don't post these types of trades as I know many might follow me and I don't want to be responsible for an inexperienced trader over-leveraging themselves and not being able to handle the draw down. However in this case, it was a very low risk trade. The 103.5 mental stop loss I mentioned was just to make sure that whoever followed me did not jump in blindly
Yeah, that is true. I definitely wouldn't use much leverage if any on a trade I followed from someone else and especially one with 150 pip stop loss
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,951
  • May 23, 2012 6:37am May 23, 2012 6:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Some advice to you... Keep emotions in check. Never worry about what you did not take. There will be much more for the taking.

Remember that trades should be planned in advance. Seeing a missed opportunity afterwards is no reason to kick yourself. Rather it is an opportunity to learn from it and look for similar opportunities in the future. Therefore, I think you should pat yourself on the back for seeing it and noting it for the future
thanks for reminding me not to be so hard on myself. true, recognizing the opportunity and not taking it is better than not recognizing it at all. still, the amount of opportunities i have missed that i was going to take lately, is staggering.

but being hard on myself is probably the reason I can't make those trades. That and the 20x leverage Usually its capped at 10x on a scalp (with 10 pip stop, and i better be damn sure of being right or its 1% loss).
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,952
  • May 23, 2012 6:38am May 23, 2012 6:38am
Quoting ERedRick
I'm Eastern time US, so not up at 4 - 4:30 (usually), but have noticed many days when get up that E/U frequently seems to be at an extreme short term high or low about then, which is then faded for awhile. Haven't quantified that... but can someone explain what's happening? Or has someone studied that & concluded the observation isn't statistically accurate?
I have looked into that and I have determined that it is not consistent and reliable enough to incorporate in a winning strategy. There is a possible explanation behind it though. It is usually the time when most banks finish settling international fund transfers from the overnight clearing houses.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,953
  • May 23, 2012 6:39am May 23, 2012 6:39am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Yep, small partial near the 100.40 area.
That's where I took profit too. Will be looking to re enter this on a PT recommendation (hopefully above 100.50)

Edit: EU looks to be rolling over and dying, doesn't look like a pull back move to me. let's see if 1.2685 caps the move. I know, PT, I know, don't dwell on it, but that would have been 2.5-5% scalp (and still going too)

The good thing is I know one day soon I am going to start getting these.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,954
  • May 23, 2012 6:44am May 23, 2012 6:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have looked into that and I have determined that it is not consistent and reliable enough to incorporate in a winning strategy.
Thanks PT!
  • #31,955
  • May 23, 2012 6:44am May 23, 2012 6:44am
Quoting BFSGcapital
That's where I took profit too. Will be looking to re enter this on a PT recommendation (hopefully above 100.50)
My recommendation for re-entry was already posted at 100.90 area. The retrace hit a high of 100.83 so it was 7 pips short.

One of my rules is that if I target a specific price for entry and it doesn't reach it (even by 0.1 pips), I generally leave it unless price lingers long enough for me to think about it.

As you can see, price did not linger at all as it was hit hard by the bears before it got to my target entry.

Therefore I shall stick with what I already have (50% of my original trade size)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,956
  • May 23, 2012 6:46am May 23, 2012 6:46am
Quoting ERedRick
Thanks PT!
Cheers Rick
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,957
  • May 23, 2012 6:46am May 23, 2012 6:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
My recommendation for re-entry was already posted at 100.90 area. The retrace hit a high of 100.83 so it was 7 pips short.

One of my rules is that if I target a specific price for entry and it doesn't reach it (even by 0.1 pips), I generally leave it unless price lingers long enough for me to think about it.

As you can see, price did not linger at all as it was hit hard by the bears before it got to my target entry.
I'm gonna ride most of it, down to your projected target. Thx bud.
  • #31,958
  • May 23, 2012 6:49am May 23, 2012 6:49am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'm gonna ride most of it, down to your projected target. Thx bud.
Oh I'm definitely with you on that. The only way I am getting out of this trade is via TP or SL (Which I will trail to logical levels)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,959
  • May 23, 2012 6:49am May 23, 2012 6:49am
Wells Fargo - We expect further declines in the euro in coming days

Wed, May 23 2012, 15:46 CET | Interbank Talk

source: Wells Fargo

"The euro is down, though off its lows for the day, after reaching a new 21-month low. The market remains focused on the uncertain European situation, with today’s European Leader’s meeting doing little to ease market worries... For now, we expect the market’s cautious mood to continue and, despite extending positioning, we expect further declines in the euro in the coming days, as well as further losses in the commodity and emerging currencies." Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank.
  • #31,960
  • May 23, 2012 6:50am May 23, 2012 6:50am
Dreamed last night Euro dropped to .6000 in an hour! dropping so fast the chart was like flipping pages upwards. Reading too much?
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