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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #31,521
  • May 21, 2012 12:33am May 21, 2012 12:33am
decision time soon
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,522
  • May 21, 2012 12:39am May 21, 2012 12:39am
Quoting BFSGcapital
closed short here for +21
bfsgcapital that was a very risky way of trading. wish i had your skills and bravery.
good you got green pips
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #31,523
  • May 21, 2012 1:00am May 21, 2012 1:00am
Good morning everyone,

I will not be posting this morning as I am heading out on some unrelated business. I should be back before NY open.

It's a slow news day as far as econ releases are concerned, but watch out for the forked tongues from the political arena. This market is primed form rumors now.

Trade safe
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,524
  • May 21, 2012 1:01am May 21, 2012 1:01am
Orderboard…

Written by Pete Jackson
May 21, 2012 at 05:35 GMT

EUR/USD: Real money bids 1.2740/50, stops below ahead of more bids 1.2720/30 and 1.2700/10 (sell stops below). Offers 1.2810/30, talk of buy stops through 1.2835 ahead of further offers 1.2860/70

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5830/40, tech res 1.5890/10. Bids 1.5790/00, 1.5730/40, suggested sell stops below

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8085/00, 0.8135/40, Bids 0.8070/75, 0.8050/55 from funds

USD/JPY: Bids 79.00/10 (79.10, 61.8% of 76.00-84.15), (79.00 rumoured barrier). Sell stops down through 78.95 and 78.80. Offers start from79.20 and run up to 79.50 (exporters)

EUR/JPY: Offers 101.40/50 and 101.90/00, but stops just above. Bids 101.00/10, likely stops just below.

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10, offers 1.2015/25 and 1.2040/50

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9400/10, Bids 0.9370/80

AUD/USD: Sell stops through 0.9820. Bids 0.9800/10, sell stops through 0.9790. Offers 0.9870/80 larger up at 0.9890/00 with buy stops on a break above.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,525
  • May 21, 2012 1:02am May 21, 2012 1:02am
Today's option expiries at 14:00 GMT

1.3000
1.2900
1.2800
1.2780
1.2700
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,526
  • May 21, 2012 1:08am May 21, 2012 1:08am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,527
  • May 21, 2012 1:10am May 21, 2012 1:10am
Okay. I'm off.

I will be back soon


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_UsPYU-tExR..._back_soon.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,528
  • May 21, 2012 1:11am May 21, 2012 1:11am
Just broke this trendline, am short again (less leverage) 2780 after TP at 2785 (due to uncertainy whether trendline would hold or not)

Quick break before London then fun time
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,529
  • May 21, 2012 1:14am May 21, 2012 1:14am
Oops. Forgot to post a chart

E/U H4

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,530
  • May 21, 2012 1:16am May 21, 2012 1:16am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Good morning PT and other fellow traders.

Today there is only France and US auction, which have no effect on anything.

My sentiment is still quite bullish since I want to see at least 1.29 before PT's hammer team jumps in.

It appears to be that Greece is still on headlines and now even EU's Juncker admits that EU Finmins don't want Greeks to play bully in their sandbox. Once it happens we see another good dive.

Analytics and weathermen are predicting dark clouds on Spain. They think that Spaniels are about ask for loan from EFSF. I don't see that happening yet. Spaniel bonds are selling fine and they already have a budget filled for this year. Spanish fleet is not sinking yet.

Now I believe - all we need is a one shard of good news to rally price to 1.29.
  • #31,531
  • May 21, 2012 1:34am May 21, 2012 1:34am
Quoting gnomoneey
bfsgcapital that was a very risky way of trading. wish i had your skills and bravery.
good you got green pips
thank you

that was one of the least risky trades ive ever made. i wish i used more leverage. everything was pointing to down.

got short again on break of trendline 1.2780, and closed for +15 and 1.2765(bid)

this looks like its not going to be a problem either. next test is 1.2747
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,532
  • May 21, 2012 1:40am May 21, 2012 1:40am
almost went long for a scalp at 2763, would have been nice as its looking quite bullish now..
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,533
  • May 21, 2012 1:58am May 21, 2012 1:58am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting BFSGcapital
almost went long for a scalp at 2763, would have been nice as its looking quite bullish now..
Yep... if you look at friday, but it could be deceiving, since friday is a day when traders close their trades. London will show todays sentiment. Tokio showed some bullish already. Let's see in half an hour where we go.

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  • #31,534
  • May 21, 2012 3:11am May 21, 2012 3:11am
imo, bullish if 23.6 fib, broken trendline from 1.264, and intact trendline from 1.328 go
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #31,535
  • May 21, 2012 3:18am May 21, 2012 3:18am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting BFSGcapital
imo, bullish if 23.6 fib, broken trendline from 1.264, and intact trendline from 1.328 go
Looks like it is about to go quite flat till NY.
I guess everybody are waiting some sign for becoming development and no one dares to sell. Looks like it needs just a rumor of a rumor of good news to ignite rally.
  • #31,536
  • May 21, 2012 3:48am May 21, 2012 3:48am
Nomura - EUR shorts near record high level

Mon, May 21 2012, 10:31 CET | Interbank Talk
Source: Nomura

"After another week of uncertainty and instability in the euro area periphery, investors added to their EUR net short positions by $4.3bn in the week ending Tuesday. This second week of increased net EUR shorts brought the currency to its highest net short position since the week ending 24 January, and our real-time estimates suggest that short positioning has increased by $1.0bn in the second half of the week, bringing EUR to its largest net short position on record." Elizabeth Zoidis, Saeed Amen, Jens Nordvig and Charles St-Arnaud, Contributing Strategists at Nomura.
  • #31,537
  • May 21, 2012 3:54am May 21, 2012 3:54am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Nomura - EUR shorts near record high level

Mon, May 21 2012, 10:31 CET | Interbank Talk
Source: Nomura

"After another week of uncertainty and instability in the euro area periphery, investors added to their EUR net short positions by $4.3bn in the week ending Tuesday. This second week of increased net EUR shorts brought the currency to its highest net short position since the week ending 24 January, and [b]our real-time estimates suggest that short positioning has increased by $1.0bn...
No one wants euros. We need to start using dollars.
Tomorrows breaking news: Eu resigns from Eurozone and leaves it to Greece

New currency will be New Euro known as Neuro.
  • #31,538
  • May 21, 2012 4:06am May 21, 2012 4:06am
Quoting AFXFin
No one wants euros. We need to start using dollars.
Tomorrows breaking news: Eu resigns from Eurozone and leaves it to Greece

New currency will be New Euro known as Neuro.
Maybe Germany is about to do just that. They were hounded at the G8 meeting about focusing more on growth instead of austerity. Germany's back is against the wall. We'll see if they give in.
  • #31,539
  • May 21, 2012 4:07am May 21, 2012 4:07am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Talking forex:
Eurozone Construction Output SA (Mar) 12.4%. Prev. -7.1%, Rev. to -10.3%
Best in years - no market effect though - understandable, that was old news from march.
  • #31,540
  • May 21, 2012 4:08am May 21, 2012 4:08am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Maybe Germany is about to do just that. They were hounded at the G8 meeting about focusing more on growth instead of austerity. Germany's back is against the wall. We'll see if they give in.
Can we have your CHF, please?
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