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  • #644,941
  • May 19, 2012 9:32am May 19, 2012 9:32am
Quoting kakadoo
it is just about a possible scenario- and for me it is is a good entering point for long tem short again
i know we eventually will be together
  • #644,942
  • May 19, 2012 10:10am May 19, 2012 10:10am
I see some very elaborate technical analysis here, and that's great. But keep in mind this drop was driven by fundamentals and no line on the chart will hold this up without good news from Europe(or a full QE from the FED). I don't see anything of that nature at the moment.. From s/r point of view, it still needs to drop a little lower than the last low.. at least.. I am not looking at this as being the bottom.. Besides the higher trend is still down, weekly and monthly I mean.

My 2 cents.
  • #644,943
  • May 19, 2012 11:19am May 19, 2012 11:19am
Quoting attila
I see some very elaborate technical analysis here, and that's great. But keep in mind this drop was driven by fundamentals and no line on the chart will hold this up without good news from Europe(or a full QE from the FED). I don't see anything of that nature at the moment.. From s/r point of view, it still needs to drop a little lower than the last low.. at least.. I am not looking at this as being the bottom.. Besides the higher trend is still down, weekly and monthly I mean.

My 2 cents.
Well, that's what I think. I dont understand why people bought at 2780, expecting another leg up monday. IF the trend reverse is in the works, it certainly needs a correction to the downside. And I still think it needs to break the previous low at 2620. A lot of people see a big leg up, on a friday, at the market close, and immediatly thinks the trend is reversed. Maybe it will, but not because of this leg up. My oppinion only
  • #644,944
  • May 19, 2012 11:33am May 19, 2012 11:33am
Quoting Andreenzo
Well, that's what I think. I dont understand why people bought at 2780, expecting another leg up monday. IF the trend reverse is in the works, it certainly needs a correction to the downside. And I still think it needs to break the previous low at 2620. A lot of people see a big leg up, on a friday, at the market close, and immediatly thinks the trend is reversed. Maybe it will, but not because of this leg up. My oppinion only
that's prolly the worst place to open long... right at the friday close too...
  • #644,945
  • May 19, 2012 12:02pm May 19, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting pkimnyc
that's prolly the worst place to open long... right at the friday close too...
No fundamentals to justify that move up, probably week-end profit taking. ......... rare possibility, but could be to save all frogs in this world.


Quoting Chicky
If it doesn't bounce about 200 pips from here, I will kill all the frogs in the world.

Quoting Chicky
.... Sell their legs to Soup Chefs and make good my loss.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1337322985
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #644,946
  • May 19, 2012 12:09pm May 19, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting pkimnyc
that's prolly the worst place to open long... right at the friday close too...
agreed. If the trend had actually truncated we would have seen a really strong rally. I am flat as of now, but still looking for 2575 unless we solidly close above 279 monday morning.
  • #644,947
  • May 19, 2012 1:01pm May 19, 2012 1:01pm
Why euro rallied on Friday from 1.2640?

Probably because:

  1. It got very near to 1.2623, the January low.
  2. Group of 8 are meeting over this week-end and traders expecting positive outcome from this meeting are taking positions.
  3. After Moody's downgrading of sixteen Spanish banks, ban on short selling of Spanish bank is a possibility
  4. Chicky went long on near Januaury low

Why euro rally will be short lived?

Probably because:

  1. European crisis is too complicated and traders find safe haven in USD
  2. Greek re-elections on June 17 may give power to anti-euro parties
  3. Spanish economy remains a concern
  4. Chicky will sell off her/his longs at first sign of danger

Why Euro will move back to 1.4200 several months from now?

Probably because:

  1. Currency market always looks for stability / equilibrium because of risk taking and risk aversion sentiments
  2. Euro is a new global currency, the only currency that many are looking as the future reserve currency. It is going through teething issues
  3. Chicky will be buying euros on dips.

The Thief of Wall Street
  • #644,948
  • Edited 3:56pm May 19, 2012 3:43pm | Edited 3:56pm
That 50pips candle in 5min chart during the closing hours of trading on Friday looks like someone deliberately took out stops above intraday resistance at around 1.2755, knowing that there aren't too many players around, for quick profit taking.

Lets see whether it will hold above 1.2755 on Monday.
  • #644,949
  • May 19, 2012 3:50pm May 19, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting Chicky
Why euro rallied on Friday from 1.2640?

Probably because:

  1. It got very near to 1.2623, the January low.
  2. Group of 8 are meeting over this week-end and traders expecting positive outcome from this meeting are taking positions.
  3. After Moody's downgrading of sixteen Spanish banks, ban on short selling of Spanish bank is a possibility
  4. Chicky went long on near Januaury low

Why euro rally will be short lived?

Probably because:[list][*]European crisis is too complicated and traders find safe haven in USD[*]Greek...

Then I'll snipe the crap out of chicken. Lol
  • #644,950
  • May 19, 2012 4:21pm May 19, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting Paulenok
Reminds me:

http://joke-mfh.kitt.net/spidermoney.gif
OMG
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #644,951
  • May 19, 2012 4:30pm May 19, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting Chicky
W
Probably because:

  1. Currency market always looks for stability / equilibrium because of risk taking and risk aversion sentiments
  2. Euro is a new global currency, the only currency that many are looking as the future reserve currency. It is going through teething issues
  3. Chicky will be buying euros on dips.

Chicky, where do you see the Euro 2 to 5 year from here since you seemed to have a lot of experience and knowledge
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #644,952
  • May 19, 2012 6:37pm May 19, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting -Melo-
Chicky, where do you see the Euro 2 to 5 year from here since you seemed to have a lot of experience and knowledge
In Our BackYard...Lol...
  • #644,953
  • May 19, 2012 6:50pm May 19, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting -Melo-
Chicky, where do you see the Euro 2 to 5 year from here since you seemed to have a lot of experience and knowledge
I started trading Euro not too long ago, from 2008. Eversince, every year it goes up to 1.5000 and then back down to 1.2400/1.1800. Then again up and again down.

If these cycles continue, it will be somewhere near 1.3250.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #644,954
  • May 19, 2012 7:25pm May 19, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting Chicky
I started trading Euro not too long ago, from 2008. Eversince, every year it goes up to 1.5000 and then back down to 1.2400/1.1800. Then again up and again down.

If these cycles continue, it will be somewhere near 1.3250.
Even with the current situation?
  • #644,955
  • May 19, 2012 7:32pm May 19, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting Acroix70
Even with the current situation?
Current situations go in cycles, too.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #644,956
  • May 19, 2012 7:36pm May 19, 2012 7:36pm
i think that inflation and current situations need to be taken into account as well. it seems resistance levels should be taken into account. but the last 5 odd years is not all the markets history. over all the markets have been moving up since the beginning. i think what im trying to say is be careful of your own experience and dont bank heavily on it. people may be looking further back then 5 years and there are a lot of economic factors that are large factors now that werent present. all resistance and support levels can and do break eventually
  • #644,957
  • Edited 7:58pm May 19, 2012 7:40pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting Acroix70
Even with the current situation?
One good thing about currency trading is that currencies tend to range.

I remember talking to a Japanese couple back in 2003 or 2004 on my way to an Asian destintation about the rumors of JPY hitting 140 very soon.

Two years ago, USD was in such bad shape that OPEC decided to make all oil deals not in USD but against a combination of USD,EURO,GBP and Gold. .............. that was only six months or so after Euro was considered doomed.

In 2008, after USD appreciated and Euro went down from 1.6000 to 1.2400 it bounced off to 1.47000 and came back in no time and then gradually climbed to 1.5000, then again came down to a level to start talk about parity with USD, then again it went back to 1.5000.

I see no real change in the economic situation but can compare moves in this pair with a headless chicken.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #644,958
  • May 19, 2012 8:05pm May 19, 2012 8:05pm
And it's like an old saying I heard before. "Stocks crash. Currencies don't."
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #644,959
  • May 19, 2012 8:13pm May 19, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting Acroix70
Even with the current situation?
I think anything can happen. Who think gold will drop to 15xx ? Many exprerts from Bloomberg say gold will reach 2000 in this year.
Keep Simple...!
  • #644,960
  • May 19, 2012 8:31pm May 19, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting Chicky
One good thing about currency trading is that currencies tend to range.

I remember talking to a Japanese couple back in 2003 or 2004 on my way to an Asian destintation about the rumors of JPY hitting 140 very soon.

Two years ago, USD was in such bad shape that OPEC decided to make all oil deals not in USD but against a combination of USD,EURO,GBP and Gold. .............. that was only six months or so after Euro was considered doomed.

In 2008, after USD appreciated and Euro went down from 1.6000 to 1.2400 it bounced off to 1.47000 and...
thank you for you help and informations
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
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