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  • #31,341
  • May 18, 2012 10:51am May 18, 2012 10:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
haha. , Must be another PT. If I was going to trade that floorcloth, I would be shorting it.
Have you noticed that NONE of the owners/officers of farcebook, are BUYING ANY of their stocks?NOT ONE SINGLE SHARE! Says a lot about what they think, doesn't it?
  • #31,342
  • May 18, 2012 10:53am May 18, 2012 10:53am
Facebook IPO after 30min trading
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  • #31,343
  • May 18, 2012 10:56am May 18, 2012 10:56am
Quoting deian
Facebook IPO after 30min trading


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,344
  • May 18, 2012 11:05am May 18, 2012 11:05am
Stops building in Facebook at 37.95…

Fri, May 18 2012, 17:53 CET | Forex Live

By: Jamie Coleman

This is like watching a car wreck. Ugly but fascinating... Looks like the floodgates could open if Facebook trades below the IPO price. The deal is so big that the underwriters are unlikely to be able to offer price support as they normally would...
  • #31,345
  • May 18, 2012 11:32am May 18, 2012 11:32am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper


Attachment
I cannot understand how someone wants a shares of facebook if there is no proper businessmodel... It is full of air and the most stupid act is to bring that hot air to be evaluated on market.
  • #31,346
  • May 18, 2012 11:36am May 18, 2012 11:36am
Quoting AFXFin
I cannot understand how someone wants a shares of facebook if there is no proper businessmodel... It is full of air and the most stupid act is to bring that hot air to be evaluated on market.
My take is that they had no choice because they needed more financing, they were already at the maximum of 500 shareholders to remain private and an attempt to consolidate shareholders failed.

Regardless, I agree it was the most idiotic and premature move for them, especially since the majority of their users are now using mobile devices and the mobile apps do not accommodate advertising. How can a business model based on advertising survive which such a system? It was obviously a disaster before it even started. It didn't take a genius to know that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,347
  • May 18, 2012 11:39am May 18, 2012 11:39am
Economists React: What if Greece Exits the Euro Zone?

By Katie Martin

As the prospect of Greece leaving the euro becomes more real by the day, economists are trying to figure out what would happen next, to the economy and to the markets.

Nothing is certain here; Greece may or may not leave, and there’s a huge range of potential policy responses. So, making allowances for some guesswork, here’s a rundown of some of their views.

JP MORGAN: There’s now a 50% chance of Greece leaving, up from 20% before the country’s politicians failed to produce a coalition government. It says a Greek exit would depress the country’s gross domestic product by five to 10 percentage points more than if it were to stay in. “That would put the peak-to-trough decline in Greek GDP at 25-30%, broadly matching the U.S. experience in the early 1930s.” In turn, that would take away around two percentage points of growth from the region. “This would put the current downturn in line with previous deep recessions, such as the mid-1970s and the early 1990s, but milder than the exceptionally deep recession of 2008/09, when area-wide GDP fell 5.5% from peak to trough,” the bank adds, warning that regional unemployment could be higher than “anything seen in the past half-century.”

CITIGROUP: “There are many scenarios for a Greek exit; almost all of them are likely to be euro negative for an extended period,” says the bank that coined the now-ubiquitous term “Grexit”. If the process is managed, which the U.S. bank deems unlikely, expect a short, sharp selloff in the euro, with a subsequent rally up to $1.45 or higher. If Greece just dumps the austerity program and walks, the risk of contagion rises, and “the euro could begin to rally, but so much damage will have been done by then that it would begin its rally from a much lower level and probably not be anywhere close to the current level at the end of the year.” If the stronger countries were to break away, some see euro gains ahead, but Citi reckons that “this can take a very long time and is probably well beyond an investible horizon.” All in all, the outlook for the common currency is “not very promising…unless policy makers surprise with decisiveness.”

NOMURA: “Without pretending to be precise about the effects involved, we think it is fair to say that a large swing in the current-account balance would be forced by a lack of capital inflows and inevitable capital flight,” Nomura says, stressing repeatedly that bank holidays may be needed to stem the flight of deposits.

HSBC: “On contagion, one would have to decide how impacted the market elsewhere in Europe would be by a Greek exit, and also how swift and aggressive the associated policy response from the European Central Bank would be. The latter could include a reopening of the ECB’s bond-buying program, additional long-term refinancing operations, or something more ground-breaking.” The bank has devised a scale for how damaging a Greek exit would be to the common currency as a whole. Broadly speaking, it reckons that the “best” outcome for the euro would involve the experience for Greece being as tough as possible. If it’s too easy, the temptation for others to leave would be greater, and the currency would be seen to be easily divisible.

BANK OF AMERICA-MERRILL LYNCH: “The risk of a Greek euro exit is rising, but so too are the incentives to keep Greece in.” If it does happen, expect a short, sharp shock to the euro’s exchange rate. “However, in the short run if the ECB responds decisively we believe risky assets, especially bank stocks and periphery bonds, may be prone to a short squeeze. In the longer run, exporters would have scope to outperform domestically geared stocks for a lengthy period.” In a separate note, the bank adds that “if Greece exits the euro, Greek oil demand drops one third… and in a disorderly euro break-up, demand could contract sharply, with profound implications for oil prices.” Brent oil prices could drop as low as $60 per barrel, from the $106 area now.

RBS: “There is already likely to be some form of Plan-B… [but] if contagion really kicks off then a thinly veiled form of monetary financing of debts may be on the table.” The bank reckons a Greek euro exit risks a total of EUR400 billion from bailouts, the ECB and Bank of Greece lending. The risk of capital flight is key. “We are most worried about deposit risk for the periphery, and we see plenty that can be done to alleviate these risks–crucially if there is the political willingness. For instance, allowing banks to access the EFSF/ESM [the European Financial Stability Facility and European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone's temporary and permanent rescue funds, respectively] directly. We have not thought that this was politically feasible but clearly there is a pain threshold that makes politicians take risks.” Alternatively, a euro-wide deposit insurance program would be a good idea, RBS says. For trade ideas, the bank says “we think the theme of market deterioration leading to a policy action translates into buying bonds at distressed levels, which looks closer now.”
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,348
  • May 18, 2012 11:48am May 18, 2012 11:48am
If I haven't read this one totally wrong, there is an inverted head and shoulders developing for a potential retracement upwards. Now the facts have been sold - daily will prove if it is viable.
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  • #31,349
  • May 18, 2012 11:52am May 18, 2012 11:52am
I note that the collapse of the EUR against GBP has gone into reverse. DOes this mean that the markets now view UK as being more of a bacsket case than the Eurozone???
  • #31,350
  • May 18, 2012 12:01pm May 18, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting 16Nov16
I note that the collapse of the EUR against GBP has gone into reverse. DOes this mean that the markets now view UK as being more of a bacsket case than the Eurozone???
This is most likely an unwinding and re-balancing of foreign reserves by the sovereigns, plus the compounding effect of some profit taking from the speculators.

It's all cyclical. I don't think it is wise to read too much into it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,351
  • May 18, 2012 12:01pm May 18, 2012 12:01pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
My take is that they had no choice because they needed more financing, they were already at the maximum of 500 shareholders to remain private and an attempt to consolidate shareholders failed.

Regardless, I agree it was the most idiotic and premature move for them, especially since the majority of their users are now using mobile devices and the mobile apps do not accommodate advertising. How can a business model based on advertising survive which such a system? It was obviously a disaster before it even started. It didn't take a genius to know...
History is repeating it self - this feels like 2001 bubble. I used to work for a while with a guy who was manufacturing those bubble companies. He came to pick some of our business ideas and wanted to take them to the stock market. I tried to ask him - what about business itself? What happens once buyers buy the stocks? He replied with amazed face that of course if you want, you can start business as well, but you don't have to.
I replied: In my book that is called cheating - he said that it is the way in the market...
I didn't go along with that guy. If I recall right, later he got jailed
  • #31,352
  • May 18, 2012 12:05pm May 18, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting AFXFin
History is repeating it self - this feels like 2001 bubble. I used to work for a while with a guy who was manufacturing those bubble companies. He came to pick some of our business ideas and wanted to take them to the stock market. I tried to ask him - what about business itself? What happens once buyers buy the stocks? He replied with amazed face that of course if you want, you can start business as well, but you don't have to.
I replied: In my book that is called cheating - he said that it is the way in the market...
I didn't go along with...
Sort of like the movie "Boiler Room".
  • #31,353
  • May 18, 2012 12:06pm May 18, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Unknownpips
If I haven't read this one totally wrong, there is an inverted head and shoulders developing for a potential retracement upwards. Now the facts have been sold - daily will prove if it is viable.
Anything is possible. Until the right shoulder is painted and the neckline is broken, it could go either way. It might even keep going up without painting a right shoulder.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,354
  • May 18, 2012 12:18pm May 18, 2012 12:18pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Anything is possible. Until the right shoulder is painted and the neckline is broken, it could go either way. It might even keep going up without painting a right shoulder.
That's what I was thinking as well. There is no need for symmetrical pattern here. It is friday and markets are closing. Traders are closing their trades till weekend.

Monday tends to be a day when they do fresh restart and if sentiment is to go long - that's what traders do. Cannot see reason for shoulder right now. It can be just a plain soap...
  • #31,355
  • May 18, 2012 12:19pm May 18, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting AFXFin
History is repeating it self - this feels like 2001 bubble. I used to work for a while with a guy who was manufacturing those bubble companies. He came to pick some of our business ideas and wanted to take them to the stock market. I tried to ask him - what about business itself? What happens once buyers buy the stocks? He replied with amazed face that of course if you want, you can start business as well, but you don't have to.
I replied: In my book that is called cheating - he said that it is the way in the market...
I didn't go along...
Yes, back then all you had to do was register a domain name and come up with a catchy business plan (prospectus).

I was once offered a position as COO with a dotcom upstart. The business plan was to build a community social and business networking site (similar to what Facebook is now). The long term plan was to expand it to every community in North America. I took the job and after I realized they were not even prepared with an execution plan two weeks away from going public, I surrendered my shares, resigned and filed a report with the OSC (Ontario Securities Commission). The company still went public with an opening price of $5.00 per share. Within one year they were trading at less than 10 cents a share. The OSC did not even investigate. A couple of years later, the company bought back all the outstanding shares at 5 cents each and is now still operating as a private company. What a scam. Now they are operating as an IT services company with an infrastructure paid for by previous shareholder's money. I am tempted to reveal their name but I don't want to get sued.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,356
  • May 18, 2012 12:26pm May 18, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes, back then all you had to do was register a domain name and come up with a catchy business plan (prospectus).

I was once offered a position as COO with a dotcom upstart. The business plan was to build a community social and business networking site (similar to what Facebook is now). The long term plan was to expand it to every community in North America. I took the job and after I realized they were not even prepared with an execution plan two weeks away from going public, I surrendered my shares, resigned and filed a report with the OSC (Ontario...
Wow. You were wise to have seen through that. Another reason why it's always best to work for yourself.
  • #31,357
  • May 18, 2012 12:47pm May 18, 2012 12:47pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Wow. You were wise to have seen through that. Another reason why it's always best to work for yourself.
That's not much to figure out. If there is nothing - there is nothing. Business plan don't make business, but executing it. If they were about to go public without actual product - it is a scam.

I've seen so many of those during my years and I was working for even one, which needed a product afterwords. They went public with plan only and once reality hit, they came to us...
  • #31,358
  • May 18, 2012 12:50pm May 18, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Wow. You were wise to have seen through that. Another reason why it's always best to work for yourself.
I was self-employed before that job and self employed since I resigned. Never again
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,359
  • May 18, 2012 12:53pm May 18, 2012 12:53pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
I was self-employed before that job and self employed since I resigned. Never again
I've been independent since 1995 now and I cannot think of anything else - though my wife once suggested that why don't I take a "real job" for once - I just took a haircut...
  • #31,360
  • May 18, 2012 1:00pm May 18, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting AFXFin
I've been independent since 1995 now and I cannot think of anything else - though my wife once suggested that why don't I take a "real job" for once - I just took a haircut...
HaHa. An ex-girlfriend of mine once pleaded with me to get a "real" job and she even went as far as to get me an interview with a bank (The HR manager was her cousin) to work in their MasterCard anti-fraud division as their director of IT. The job paid a little more than I was earning as a self-employed consultant but it meant that I would be at their beck and call 24/7. "No thanks" I said. That is why she is my ex-girlfriend.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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