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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,661
  • Edited 4:34am May 18, 2012 4:24am | Edited 4:34am
Why the hell would you be buying when the trend is so obviously, completely and unequivocally DOWN?

It even SEEMS to be down

Trade what you see NOT what you WANT to see.

If you want to ignore all the "noise" get rid all those silly looking squiggly lines on your charts, and stop watching short term 15 min charts.

My suggestion is to wait for potential setups on daily then look for an early entry on 4 hr charts.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,662
  • May 18, 2012 4:49am May 18, 2012 4:49am
Quoting Trader131
Looking good- another 1/4 off at here +28. SL to +12 (14)
While you were buying the AUD on 5 min charts, I was selling (not on 5 min's LOL) and I closed out 3 trades for an average of 106 pips on each trade a few hours ago.

Not being hard on you guy, but you were grinding out a few pips AGAINST the trend, while I was selling the pullback... much easier, less stressful, and much more profitable.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,663
  • May 18, 2012 4:55am May 18, 2012 4:55am
Quoting pt49
Why the hell would you be buying when the trend is so obviously, completely and unequivocally DOWN?

It even SEEMS to be down

Trade what you see NOT what you WANT to see.

If you want to ignore all the "noise" get rid all those silly looking squiggly lines on your charts, and stop watching short term 15 min charts.

My suggestion is to wait for potential setups on daily then look for an early entry on 4 hr charts.


Why do people do this?

I'm totally opened minded about trading. Do I think people make money on M1? Sure. Do I think people make money on vanilla daily charts? Sure. Do I think people even make money with charts loaded with dozens of indicators? Yeah, I guess they probably do.

I think there are almost limitless ways to make money and to lose money trading Forex (and other tools) and all manner of different levels of return achievable. I just don't understand two things about you:

1. Why you can be so cock sure that 131 isn't doing very well for himself trading the way that he finds suits him the best.

2. Why you would feel the need to go on to a thread about a trading methodology that you clearly haven't understood or want to understand and then tell the people that they're doing it all wrong.


I can only conclude that you're very insecure about your own trading, else why would you even bother?
  • #35,664
  • May 18, 2012 5:02am May 18, 2012 5:02am
Ummm... the name of the thread is "Trade what you see, NOT what you expect" I believe?

131 was stating he could not see the trees for the freakin jungle, and that was obvious, so I voiced my opinion.

I'm sorry if I upset your sensibilities, however, I feel you'll get over it in time.

I'm sure I didn't upset 131, and that was not my intention anyway.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,665
  • May 18, 2012 5:17am May 18, 2012 5:17am
Quoting pt49
While you were buying the AUD on 5 min charts, I was selling (not on 5 min's LOL) and I closed out 3 trades for an average of 106 pips on each trade a few hours ago.

Not being hard on you guy, but you were grinding out a few pips AGAINST the trend, while I was selling the pullback... much easier, less stressful, and much more profitable.
Good for you, I'm sure you feel really big about that. Trading more with the trend, is something I'm working on, but if you check my previous posts, a lot of my trades tend to be countertrend, at areas of potential reversal- so long as you get covered quickly I don't see the problem.

Also, perhaps if you looked more closely you would see that I don't use 5 minute charts...

Trotty's right you can make money both ways- if you're capable. I don't want to start a pissing contest here, but I don't see you posting live charts.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,666
  • May 18, 2012 5:18am May 18, 2012 5:18am
Quoting pt49
Ummm... the name of the thread is "Trade what you see, NOT what you expect" I believe?

131 was stating he could not see the trees for the freakin jungle, and that was obvious, so I voiced my opinion.

I'm sorry if I upset your sensibilities, however, I feel you'll get over it in time.

I'm sure I didn't upset 131, and that was not my intention anyway.
I don't think he was saying that at all. I think he was suggesting that when price has been dropping for a long time, it usually represents a good opportunity to buy. Buy low, sell high. It's a pretty core principal frankly.

You won't upset me at all, i'm very comfortable in the knowledge that what EO has given us here is the most in-depth and brilliant approach to trading you're likely to find for free anywhere.

All I actually said is that you seem myopic and closed minded in what can make money for people in the market and that it seems very silly and pointless to try and tell people where they are going wrong when you have absolutely no idea if they are actually going wrong at all. For all you know, 131 could be pulling in 10 times the returns you're making.

I am very happy to stand by those comments.
  • #35,667
  • May 18, 2012 5:36am May 18, 2012 5:36am
Quoting Trotty
For all you know, 131 could be pulling in 10 times the returns you're making.

I am very happy to stand by those comments.
He may very well be, who knows?

I tend to do OK, and I do post live charts from time to time. I even went out on a limb a few years ago and started a thread... heck and jolly gee, and I opened a small separate live account for Forex Factory members to follow in the "Market" tab.

I guess the main point I was making is that the thread is named "Trade what you see", and the chart setups of EO are very simple with just a few indy's on each chart... that makes it easier to SEE whats actually happening now, not what happened in the past (via the indy's).

Post 35659 is a 5 min chart.

Do I need to be posting a lot of charts AS WELL as showing my actual trades in a live account?
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,668
  • May 18, 2012 5:37am May 18, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Trotty
I don't think he was saying that at all. I think he was suggesting that when price has been dropping for a long time, it usually represents a good opportunity to buy. Buy low, sell high. It's a pretty core principal frankly.

You won't upset me at all, i'm very comfortable in the knowledge that what EO has given us here is the most in-depth and brilliant approach to trading you're likely to find for free anywhere.

All I actually said is that you seem myopic and closed minded in what can make money for people in the market and that it seems very...
Hey Trotty- thanks for your support., I appreciate it. But I think the sensible point he raised was trade what you see not what you expect but I hope I've been doing that. In defence of my Aussie trade yesterday, I don't have much trading time this week to sit in front of the PC, and I saw a 15min pinbar at a double bottom, a valid signal in our methodology and just traded it. The same the previous day on Euro- price closed above the 50 ma's, higher high, retraced to the channel bottom and I entered. I see that as trading what I see, not blindly trying to catch a falling knife, don't you?

And guess what pt49? I'm long Euro now it was a low risk entry and have locked 13 pips with Sl at BE, but oh no, we're in a downtrend? Shouldn't we be expecting lower prices, or should we trade what we see?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,669
  • May 18, 2012 5:47am May 18, 2012 5:47am
Quoting pt49
He may very well be, who knows?

I tend to do OK, and I do post live charts from time to time. I even went out on a limb a few years ago and started a thread... heck and jolly gee, and I opened a small separate live account for Forex Factory members to follow in the "Market" tab.

I guess the main point I was making is that the thread is named "Trade what you see", and the chart setups of EO are very simple with just a few indy's on each chart... that makes it easier to SEE whats actually happening now, not what happened in the past (via...
Sorry if my charts look a bit messy, but I can assure you that they contain only EO's ma's, sometimes I leave on old channels or trendlines from different TF's which can sometimes look a bit messy, but hey you haven't seen my desk! The only indicator on there, which I'm currently trying out is the 35sma +35 pips on the 15min (another part of the strategy), and sometimes volume. So apologies if things are not clean enough.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,670
  • May 18, 2012 5:56am May 18, 2012 5:56am
OK, moving averages of course are indicators
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,671
  • May 18, 2012 6:02am May 18, 2012 6:02am
Quoting Trader131
I'm long Euro now it was a low risk entry and have locked 13 pips with Sl at BE, but oh no, we're in a downtrend? Shouldn't we be expecting lower prices, or should we trade what we see?
You are trading countertrend, a very difficult and heartburn way of trading.
In my opinion the way to trade a heavy trend as we are in now on most pairs is to buy the dips in a uptrend and sell the pullbacks in a downtrend.

Its a dam sight easier, simpler and has a much higher guarranteed success rate, with a lot less stress involved.

For instance a safe trade at present would be to sell the AUD/USD in the present pullback...

 

  1. Sell at 0.9870 or even at 0.9900 if it gets there... why not put in 2 sell limit orders?.
  2. Place your stop at about 9960 and take profit at say 9660.

Its just a suggestion (based on what I see).

In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,672
  • May 18, 2012 6:10am May 18, 2012 6:10am
... and I've placed the pending limit order I suggested
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,673
  • May 18, 2012 6:12am May 18, 2012 6:12am
Quoting pt49
You are trading countertrend, a very difficult and heartburn way of trading.
In my opinion the way to trade a heavy trend as we are in now on most pairs is to buy the dips in a uptrend and sell the pullbacks in a downtrend.

Its a dam sight easier, simpler and has a much higher guarranteed success rate, with a lot less stress involved.

For instance a safe trade at present would be to sell the AUD/USD in the present pullback...
[list][*]Sell at 0.9870 or even at 0.9900 if it gets there... why not put in 2 sell limit orders?.[*]Place your...
A valid point, and yes selling Aussie here (or slightly higher, I would prefer) should be a decent trade. CT trading is not for everyone, and can be frustrating if you get your timing wrong. I'm trying to make more trades with the trend, but always on retraces like you say- not selling at the bottom
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,674
  • May 18, 2012 6:20am May 18, 2012 6:20am
Taking more off my Euro long here at 07 (+25) at the 15min 200 (1hr 50sma) and previous high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,675
  • May 18, 2012 6:55am May 18, 2012 6:55am
pt49, I think we are also different timeframe traders. I would love to be able to use a 75 pip aggregate stop like you suggest, but at the moment, that's too much for me. I take trades like the one above several times a day. My risk on that Euro trade was 10 pips. Ist take profit at 13pips, 2nd at +25. To get the same bang for buck with your trade- my first TP would have to be arounnd 100pips! It obviously suits you well, but for me it doesn't sit with my personality.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,676
  • May 18, 2012 7:32am May 18, 2012 7:32am
Quoting Trader131
pt49, I think we are also different timeframe traders. I would love to be able to use a 75 pip aggregate stop like you suggest, but at the moment, that's too much for me. I take trades like the one above several times a day. My risk on that Euro trade was 10 pips. Ist take profit at 13pips, 2nd at +25. To get the same bang for buck with your trade- my first TP would have to be arounnd 100pips! It obviously suits you well, but for me it doesn't sit with my personality.
LOL... yup, been there done that.

I wait for setups on daily or weekly charts (takes a few minutes each day to check 6 - 8 pairs), and if anything interesting is there I'll drop to a 4 hour, and if I get excited, I'll enter a pending order off an hour or 4 hour chart and that's it most days.

Small trades, small risk (compared to available equity) and an average of 6 to 10 trades a month. A nice 5 - 10% increase in equity a month... I'm very happy with 5%.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #35,677
  • May 18, 2012 7:37am May 18, 2012 7:37am
Quoting pt49

I guess the main point I was making is that the thread is named "Trade what you see", and the chart setups of EO are very simple with just a few indy's on each chart... that makes it easier to SEE whats actually happening now, not what happened in the past (via the indy's).
Sure, I get your point entirely, it was more the way you went about making your point which seemed a little unecessary to me.

If trading the daily timeframe works for you then that's great and it's wonderful that you maybe have a life where you spend little time at the screen but make a great income from trading daily timeframes. For those that either love day trading or want to accelerate the growth in their equity, trading the dailies is just not appropriate. Don't assume you can't make money off small timeframes though, that's just timeframe snobbery.

The thing with EO's teachings here is that we will start looking at the weekly chart, then the daily chart, then 4hr, 1hr and make our trades off the 15m timeframe (not much for me right now but i'll be back on it in the fullness of time). The longer timeframes are always the guide but the shorter timeframes give you your small stop entries. Most of these will be into the main trend but many will not be. He tought us how to counter-trend trade effectively so now we "go both ways". If that's not your cuppa then don't try it but once you've learned to spot the safer CT entries, they can be a rewarding way to bump up your equity.
  • #35,678
  • May 18, 2012 7:43am May 18, 2012 7:43am
Quoting pt49
LOL... yup, been there done that.

I wait for setups on daily or weekly charts (takes a few minutes each day to check 6 - 8 pairs), and if anything interesting is there I'll drop to a 4 hour, and if I get excited, I'll enter a pending order off an hour or 4 hour chart and that's it most days.

Small trades, small risk (compared to available equity) and an average of 6 to 10 trades a month. A nice 5 - 10% increase in equity a month... I'm very happy with 5%.
Well, if you are doing it FT and can live off 5% a month, I shudder to think how stress free your life is. Making 5% on the daily charts must be an absolute doddle.

You're a lucky man!
  • #35,679
  • May 18, 2012 7:44am May 18, 2012 7:44am
Quoting pt49
LOL... yup, been there done that.

I wait for setups on daily or weekly charts (takes a few minutes each day to check 6 - 8 pairs), and if anything interesting is there I'll drop to a 4 hour, and if I get excited, I'll enter a pending order off an hour or 4 hour chart and that's it most days.

Small trades, small risk (compared to available equity) and an average of 6 to 10 trades a month. A nice 5 - 10% increase in equity a month... I'm very happy with 5%.
And I can respect that. So please don't be so fast to dish someone else's style of trading, just because it isn't to your taste or might not have worked for you. I expect percentage wise that my 20 pip or so gains are like your 100 pip gains. That one trade on euro which I've just closed the last part of here has gained me 2.5% for a 1% risk in just a morning. With a decent win rate and a few trades a day it leaves your 10% a month standing.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,680
  • May 18, 2012 7:45am May 18, 2012 7:45am
sorry forgot the chart. Last part closed here at the 1hr 62 for +41
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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