USD/CAD

a strong seller/alot of supply at 1.0057 high...

Looks like another rejection on the hourly. Double bounce. Short from 1.0041
T/P open. As soon as the risk currencies have a correction, this one should rocket down. The 1.0050 is holding quite strong.

Yes, one more disappointment for longers...but, patient makes money!

I am long from 98,60. Sold today half of position at 1,0060

Sell another half at 1,0111. I would carry longer but I am listening others too much and I guess I will be sorry if we would get to 1,02 which was my primary TP. But anyway this was one of the best trades of my life

Hoping for better entries

Long USD/CAD


Dollar is way stronger than the others

I guess I win

yeah, congrats i was wrong for now but later we might get there http://img.picshare.at/1336999176_duck.gif

Since yesterday's retracement that ended around 8am EST for most currency pairs, the USD/CAD gained roughly 1400 pips versus an 1800 pips loss for the EUR/USD, which is a 22% better return if you were shorting the EUR/USD. I think there's a wide band of resistance between 1.01 and 1.025 for USD/CAD which means going long will be a choppy ride without a major news item to push it up so I think that spread will only get bigger; therefore I'm out of USD/CAD until it passes above 1.025, returns below parity, or there's another convenient unfounded threat of war against Iran.

Longer term, I see the USD/CAD as a trade based on a flight-to-safety versus commodities, not "strength", and the (currently) stronger Canadian economy will ultimately auto-correct this pair downward as soon as the price of oil bottoms out which I expect will be soon.

The Euro, on the other hand, will keep going down regardless of flight to safety moves or commodity prices as the Euro continues to weaken until the "Euro crisis" is resolved (and we all know that won't be any time soon). There's even a potential (albeit slight) to hit zero if enough countries see the wisdom of taking the short-term pain of abandoning the Euro and go back to managing their own currencies; starting a chain-reaction that collapses the Euro.

For me, shorting EUR/USD is the safer bet long-term as well as being the more profitable short-term trade at the moment, but good luck to everyone sticking with USD/CAD. I'll be back when this pair looks better to me.

Looks like buying op perhaps

Both EUR & CAD looked the weakest currencies against USD among key currencies... I am tracking EW count of EUR/CAD and my midterm overview is clearly bearish. If my count is correct, EUR should be weaker then CAD against US Dollar in midterm... Especially the trust of giant triangle forming for EUR/USD could bring bigger short opportunities in the future...

However in short term indicators already in oversold situation and divergences all around...

Gold setting up to shed bout 300+ points

i came up with this possible wave count, but it's late already here http://www.smileygarden.de/smilie/Food/kaffee-001.gif


edit: interesting that aussie isn't making a new low so far compared to loonie making a new high, maybe a sign that commodities are about to find a bottom

What, what the fuck just happened? Philly Fed Manufacturing data comes in WAY below forecast and below previous data, and yet USD/CAD jumps up 30 pips?

Im a noob to trading in general, but to my uninitiated brain this makes no sense.

Understanding how the operator work is the key to success, it will come over time

it's short squeeze time, to shake out weak holders before the market turns

Short at 1.0055 swing short, will hold it for a while wait for the turn.

Unfortunately US equity market is not helping, GLD and AUD seems to be forming a base.

feelmypecs:

It took me a while to figure out why US data has the opposite affect of other currencies.

When US manufacturing data is bad:
a) investors abandon the affected sectors, moving into liquidity which pushes USD up
b) Canada, as the largest US trading partner, takes a hit because of decreased demand for relevant goods and materials, which pushes CAD down
c) demand for oil drops, which also pushes CAD down

It's similarly complicated for other US data when dealing with the USD/CAD pair, and since there's usually several announcements at the same time it gets even more difficult to predict, so I prefer to avoid trading USD/CAD during major US economic announcements.

Fortunately, other pairs tend to behave far more sensibly.

What I suggest is to keep one screen open with 10 currency pairs, oil, and gold (or whatever arrangement works for you) and note how each is affected at the time of an announcement and again a few minutes later after the initial move loses its momentum. This will tell you which pairs are your best bets in the future as far as pure economic calendar trading is concerned.

Good luck.

Thats a really great explanation. Thanks a lot!

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

This is a great visual tool to keep an eye on various markets, not sure if you guys have stumbled across this, but check it out if you haven't.