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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #31,081
  • May 17, 2012 4:45am May 17, 2012 4:45am
I really don't expect any trader (retail, institutional or sovereign) to buy the Euro. However, the daily technicals are overextended, so nobody is going to be stupid enough to hit it with a hammer either. We need a correction and that will be achieved via some profit taking from the current short positions. We just need a catalyst.

What will that catalyst be? With all the doom and gloom news being trumpeted by the media over the Greek situation and the high risk of contagion resulting from such a scenario, it's hard to come up with any catalyst that may cause a short covering. Yesterday's FOMC statement didn't even have an impact on the USD, most likely due to the fact that we are still very much in a risk-off sentiment.

I really don't know what to think any more from a fundamental perspective. I know the Euro is under tremendous pressure and it will in fact go down, but without an upward correction (or at least a long period of sideways movement) this sucker does not have the technical setup to go much lower. Not even a dismal Spanish bond auction was enough to drive it lower this morning. In fact the slight rising trend line formed on M15 is holding well and is now confirmed with three points.

Patience is key.

E/U M15
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m15.gif Size: 50 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,082
  • May 17, 2012 4:50am May 17, 2012 4:50am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
BUZZ-EUR-Lack of a bounce keeps the pressure on

Thu, May 17 2012, 11:26 CET | IFR Markets

- EUR/USD bids seen into 1.2700

- ACB sells ahead of Spanish auction, leveraged funds sell after

- Lack of any material bounce enables specs to maintain bearish views

- Large stops tipped below 1.2780. Barriers mulled every 25 ticks form 1.2775


http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/imag...rkets-logo.gif...
Good Morning Everybody...

Im just wondering now which T-shirt shall I put on this morning...
Ok, I picked the RED one as I still am staying bearish:
1. Daily CLOSED on RED
2. No fundametal news to support bulls
3. Another type of flat correction appears on charts (flat ABC pattern)
4. We can't break thru higher highs
That's it... I am THE BEAR with 1.26300 on the RADAR

Attached Image
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  • #31,083
  • May 17, 2012 4:50am May 17, 2012 4:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
I really don't expect any trader (retail, institutional or sovereign) to buy the Euro. However, the daily technicals are overextended, so nobody is going to be stupid enough to hit it with a hammer either. We need a correction and that will be achieved via some profit taking from the current short positions. We just need a catalyst.

What will that catalyst be? With all the doom and gloom news being trumpeted by the media over the Greek situation and the high risk of contagion resulting from such a scenario, it's hard to come up with any catalyst...
well said, waiting for us open might give some correction , but going down soon. matter is when before 17 june or after
"Forget the times of your distress, but never forget what they taught you"
  • #31,084
  • May 17, 2012 4:52am May 17, 2012 4:52am
Quoting hundal
well said, waiting for us open might give some correction , but going down soon. matter is when before 17 june or after
really i haven't heard one long on the euro not mention "oversold"

jeez its been that way for a while, I haven't been trading FX that long and I would never enter a position just off one indicator
  • #31,085
  • May 17, 2012 4:54am May 17, 2012 4:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
I really don't expect any trader (retail, institutional or sovereign) to buy the Euro. However, the daily technicals are overextended, so nobody is going to be stupid enough to hit it with a hammer either. We need a correction and that will be achieved via some profit taking from the current short positions. We just need a catalyst.

What will that catalyst be? With all the doom and gloom news being trumpeted by the media over the Greek situation and the high risk of contagion resulting from such a scenario, it's hard to come up with any catalyst...
Hi TP
Oh, I agree with corrective movement around the corner.
Though I think BULLS want better price, a bargain, so they will start pushing BUY orders with 1.26300 - 1.26500 limit.
That may draw price down and kick it high in the sky, like a spring.
-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #31,086
  • May 17, 2012 4:59am May 17, 2012 4:59am
you can see in H4 there is a consolidation happening and next move will be 50-100 pips down. Sorry cant post my chart but you all have your mt4s
  • #31,087
  • May 17, 2012 5:03am May 17, 2012 5:03am
Quoting rekon67
you can see in H4 there is a consolidation happening and next move will be 50-100 pips down. Sorry cant post my chart but you all have your mt4s
I read somewhere yesterday or the day before that "picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,088
  • May 17, 2012 5:06am May 17, 2012 5:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I read somewhere yesterday or the day before that "picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"
ha ha .. am not recommending for jumping into sale positions ... all is speculating the next move.

I do read about somewhere people who pick up own bottom does not feel the smell at all
  • #31,089
  • May 17, 2012 5:08am May 17, 2012 5:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
I read somewhere yesterday or the day before that "picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"

  • #31,090
  • May 17, 2012 5:10am May 17, 2012 5:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
I read somewhere yesterday or the day before that "picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"

"Forget the times of your distress, but never forget what they taught you"
  • #31,091
  • Edited 5:28am May 17, 2012 5:10am | Edited 5:28am
Looking for that m15 tl to be touched to go long with tigh sl for a few..
2695 - support for this play

Edit: ouh and a little m5 bullish divergence is about to be screwed so its now or never

Entered at 97 - sl -10 or if DAX will make new low..
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  • #31,092
  • May 17, 2012 5:32am May 17, 2012 5:32am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
I read somewhere yesterday or the day before that "picking bottoms gives you smelly fingers"


I must agree.

Now everybody - remember that PRICE HAVE NO MIND OF IT'S OWN. Every movement has a reason.

Keeping that in mind, you cannot trust that price move only in certain pattern without reason behind every movement. It is not independent being or some sort of living thing behaving in certain pattern by on it's own.

To figure out what is about to happen one have to understand what others think - the sentiment. To understand the sentiment you have to read what others read - the fundamental. In technical you see the result.

We all know that price is very low now. Every one trading with profit in mind thinks carefully their actions. No one dares to short since we are close a big psychological barrier 1.262 - Jan17 bottom.

Traders are holding their positions though, when waiting for miracle. As time goes by, more and more traders are closing their positions and either buying or going flat - either way it takes price up - the correction.

Once price climbs closer to 1.28 we come to see how traders who haven't closed their positions are closing them and those in flat - buying. It will speed -up to rally by only one good catalyst - a sign from God... no... hmmm... ECB?

That will take price up to 1.295ish? Maybe even 1.30ish? Anyway - as long as media says EU is in crisis - we are in a crisis and price will go down. As soon as media stops telling apocalyptic stories how Europe will sink in to the sea like Atlantis - we will see true long term bullish trend. As long as there is uncertainty among EU leaders Media will keep us in crisis.

So I say - now a little bit up and then another dive.
  • #31,093
  • May 17, 2012 5:43am May 17, 2012 5:43am
Quoting Likerty
Looking for that m15 tl to be touched to go long with tigh sl for a few..
2695 - support for this play

Edit: ouh and a little m5 bullish divergence is about to be screwed so its now or never

Entered at 97 - sl -10 or if DAX will make new low..
Hey buddy...
If you really want to be LONG today, even for a quick scalping, wouldn't it be better to wait for 2680 ?
-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #31,094
  • May 17, 2012 5:48am May 17, 2012 5:48am
Quoting halkins
Hey buddy...
If you really want to be LONG today, even for a quick scalping, wouldn't it be better to wait for 2680 ?
-
Yep, it would be.. Just gambling with my new divergence settings...

EDIT: ouh - and here is my m5 pattern that I was hoping for..
69
  • #31,095
  • May 17, 2012 5:51am May 17, 2012 5:51am
Quoting Likerty
Yep, it would be.. Just gambling with my new divergence settings...
Well, the only divergence I see now is on 1M chart.
But note this divergence is on 1M chart, it's very weak against all other timeframes
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #31,096
  • May 17, 2012 5:57am May 17, 2012 5:57am
Quoting AFXFin


I must agree.

Now everybody - remember that PRICE HAVE NO MIND OF IT'S OWN. Every movement has a reason.

Keeping that in mind, you cannot trust that price move only in certain pattern without reason behind every movement. It is not independent being or some sort of living thing behaving in certain pattern by on it's own.

To figure out what is about to happen one have to understand what others think - the sentiment. To understand the sentiment you have to read what others read - the fundamental. In technical you see...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,097
  • May 17, 2012 6:01am May 17, 2012 6:01am
Quoting halkins
Well, the only divergence I see now is on 1M chart.
But note this divergence is on 1M chart, it's very weak against all other timeframes
Two of my three reasons invalidated - looking how divergence plays out..
I use average of stochastics from different time frames for divergences
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m5 slow stochs.jpg Size: 242 KB
69
  • #31,098
  • May 17, 2012 6:04am May 17, 2012 6:04am
Quoting AFXFin


I must agree.

Now everybody - remember that PRICE HAVE NO MIND OF IT'S OWN. Every movement has a reason.

Keeping that in mind, you cannot trust that price move only in certain pattern without reason behind every movement. It is not independent being or some sort of living thing behaving in certain pattern by on it's own.

To figure out what is about to happen one have to understand what others think - the sentiment. To understand the sentiment you have to read what others read - the fundamental. In technical you see the result....
  • #31,099
  • May 17, 2012 6:10am May 17, 2012 6:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
I really don't expect any trader (retail, institutional or sovereign) to buy the Euro. However, the daily technicals are overextended, so nobody is going to be stupid enough to hit it with a hammer either. We need a correction and that will be achieved via some profit taking from the current short positions. We just need a catalyst.

What will that catalyst be? With all the doom and gloom news being trumpeted by the media over the Greek situation and the high risk of contagion resulting from such a scenario, it's hard to come up with any catalyst...
Well, so much for the M15 3 point rising trend line. We're breaking lower again and it looks like we'll be heading to make a new low today... Maybe 1.2650 area as Rekon has speculated.

My view, as I have mentioned before and as recently as yesterday is that the lower this goes, the weaker the bears should get until we see a nice correction. Then it will be hammer time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #31,100
  • May 17, 2012 6:38am May 17, 2012 6:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well, so much for the M15 3 point rising trend line. We're breaking lower again and it looks like we'll be heading to make a new low today... Maybe 1.2650 area as Rekon has speculated.

My view, as I have mentioned before and as recently as yesterday is that the lower this goes, the weaker the bears should get until we see a nice correction. Then it will be hammer time.
Dang. I went to cut grass and missed the drop. Where does it turn? maybe Danske Bank was right. Hehe
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