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  • #30,961
  • May 16, 2012 12:03pm May 16, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting iPipSnatcher
That big drop was either a stop hunt or someone unloading who isn't quite sure if they will see higher than todays highs so they just unloaded anyway

All I know is that if you caught every little turn of the market today, you probably couldve made 10000 pips!! lmao

so much range and volatility
We could dream

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_oOmokpdPfl...-a-dreamer.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,962
  • May 16, 2012 12:06pm May 16, 2012 12:06pm
I'm a dreamer

Did not even realize there was FOMC Minutes today.

That's why I need a squawk box, thank you so much talking-forex.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,963
  • May 16, 2012 12:07pm May 16, 2012 12:07pm
ECB says Greek bank can return to normal after recapitalization

Written by Adam Button
May 16, 2012 at 16:56 GMT

An ECB statement has been sent out to clear up the confusion about Greek banks but the market had already sorted it out.

The ECB says Greek banks can return to normal funding after the bank recapitalization plan passes (MNI reported that this will take place in the next 4 days).

In the meantime, the cut off banks can use the ECB’s Emergency Liquidity Facility which is, de facto, the same thing.

To me, the takeaway from the earlier euro swoon is how sensitive markets are to Greek bank headlines — sell the euro first, ask questions later.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,964
  • May 16, 2012 12:10pm May 16, 2012 12:10pm
If only I paid better attention to charts. I did want to get long. After a drop that strong, I probably would have been too chicken anyway even if I had noticed the great opportunity.

The reason is I'm afraid of a gap down before I even have the time to place a stop loss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart1.jpg Size: 219 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,965
  • May 16, 2012 12:13pm May 16, 2012 12:13pm
Weekly and Monthly still steady to have another low point.
  • #30,966
  • May 16, 2012 12:13pm May 16, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I'm a dreamer

Did not even realize there was FOMC Minutes today.

That's why I need a squawk box, thank you so much talking-forex.
All it takes is a check-list of things to do when you return to your terminal.
1. Read the events calendar (Make sticky notes as required and place on monitor).
2. Read the news events that took place while away from terminal.
3. Study PA on charts (Multiple Time Frames).
4. Determine sentiment from all the above.
5. Turn off house phone ringer and place mobile on vibrate.
6. Get ready to trade.

The above is just an example.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,967
  • May 16, 2012 12:22pm May 16, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting PipTrapper
All it takes is a check-list of things to do when you return to your terminal.
1. Read the events calendar (Make sticky notes as required and place on monitor).
2. Read the news events that took place while away from terminal.
3. Study PA on charts (Multiple Time Frames).
4. Determine sentiment from all the above.
5. Turn off house phone ringer and place mobile on vibrate.
6. Get ready to trade.

The above is just an example.
True, but I'm just bad at remembering to look at what time it is.

I do need to make a pre trading routine... and I really want to rent out an office or something so it feels more "professional" and I feel more focused. Doing this from home can be a bit distracting.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,968
  • May 16, 2012 12:26pm May 16, 2012 12:26pm
Reckon...the euro is a frankenstein currency and there is no doubt its still well over valued at these levels and is primed on the weekly chart for further decline. However, the in the short term the fundies seem to have exhausted themselves and its well oversold technically on the 4HR and Daily charts. Looks to me like we are at a checkpoint in this decline and will see choppy sideways to modest corrective PA in the short term. I would like to see some kind of correction here to enter short. With what the market is showing here, i would be afraid to enter short here, only to get squeezed out.
  • #30,969
  • May 16, 2012 12:34pm May 16, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting nathan25x
Reckon...the euro is a frankenstein currency and there is no doubt its still well over valued at these levels and is primed on the weekly chart for further decline. However, the in the short term the fundies seem to have exhausted themselves and its well oversold technically on the 4HR and Daily charts. Looks to me like we are at a checkpoint in this decline and will see choppy sideways to modest corrective PA in the short term. I would like to see some kind of correction here to enter short. With what the market is showing here, i would be afraid...
4HR chart

I can't believe I didn't notice this too... this is why I need multiple monitors and well... most of the professional FX traders have like 4-6 monitors so IMO its really not overkill (but im not a professional , not yet lol). It's just so hard to remember to click through all the time frames


I think you are right, sometimes they don't take it the whole way before the serious correction.

But I'm still hesitant we get anything more than maybe sideways correction.
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart1.jpg Size: 230 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,970
  • May 16, 2012 12:36pm May 16, 2012 12:36pm
So in a little less than 30 minutes from now, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released.

When the March 2012 minutes were released, the market decided to use one word that slightly differed from the January minutes as a reason to make the assumption that the Fed was less likely to ease more.

The January word was "few" and the March word was "couple"

Here is the related paragraph from the January minutes:
"A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions—including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee’s objective could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long."

Here is the related paragraph from the March minutes:
"A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run."

This is the kind of stuff that moves markets. So be on your toes for such subtle changes. Last time it caused the USD to rally for 3 straight days before a pullback and also knocked all the equity indices off their 4 year highs.... from which they have yet to recover.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,971
  • May 16, 2012 12:40pm May 16, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
So in a little less than 30 minutes from now, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released.

When the March 2012 minutes were released, the market decided to use one word that slightly differed from the January minutes as a reason to make the assumption that the Fed was less likely to ease more.

The January word was "few" and the March word was "couple"

Here is the related paragraph from the January minutes:
"A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions—including elevated unemployment...
True, and what a perfect excuse for a euro short cover rally.

Or it will cause us to blast through 1.26 with no problems whatsoever
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,972
  • May 16, 2012 12:41pm May 16, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
4HR chart

I can't believe I didn't notice this too... this is why I need multiple monitors and well... most of the professional FX traders have like 4-6 monitors so IMO its really not overkill (but im not a professional , not yet lol). It's just so hard to remember to click through all the time frames


I think you are right, sometimes they don't take it the whole way before the serious correction.

But I'm still hesitant we get anything more than maybe sideways correction.
Also note this is the 4HR algorithm. Note how a stop loss above plumline allows you to catch the whole move. And shorting the plum line is the best chance you will get if you missed optimal entry, or if you took profit at exhaustion and looking to scale back in
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,973
  • May 16, 2012 12:44pm May 16, 2012 12:44pm
World Bank’s Zoellick concerned about Greek contagion

Written by Adam Button
May 16, 2012 at 17:27 GMT

He says that if Greece leaves the euro, the core question is the impact on Spain, Italy and other eurozone nations undertaking structural reforms.

This point can’t be emphasized enough. It doesn’t matter whether Greece descends into chaos or comes through unscathed if they leave the euro. What matters is how politicians, people and markets react in other vulnerable countries that are large enough to have an economic impact on Europe.


WELL SAID ZOELLICK
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,974
  • May 16, 2012 12:45pm May 16, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]World Bank’s Zoellick concerned about Greek contagion

Written by Adam Button
May 16, 2012 at 17:27 GMT

[i][color=DarkSlateBlue]He says that if Greece leaves the euro, the core question is the impact on Spain, Italy and other eurozone nations undertaking structural reforms.

This point can’t be emphasized enough. It doesn’t matter whether Greece descends into chaos or comes through unscathed if they leave the euro. What...
VEry well said. Greece is small potatoes.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,975
  • May 16, 2012 12:49pm May 16, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
True, and what a perfect excuse for a euro short cover rally.

Or it will cause us to blast through 1.26 with no problems whatsoever
Precisely. But first we need one of those subtle yet significant changes.

The consensus among economists is that today's minutes will be a non-event.

Personally, I think economists are no better at guessing than you or I. If they were presenting an analysis of an economy's viability, I would listen to them, but nobody can ever guess how a central banker thinks, let alone a whole bunch of them in the same room.
.
http://www.stlouisfed.org/inplaineng...g/fomc_img.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,976
  • May 16, 2012 12:53pm May 16, 2012 12:53pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Precisely. But first we need one of those subtle yet significant changes.

The consensus among economists is that today's minutes will be a non-event.

Personally, I think economists are no better at guessing than you or I. If they were presenting an analysis of an economy's viability, I would listen to them, but nobody can ever guess how a central banker thinks, let alone a whole bunch of them in the same room.
.
http://www.stlouisfed.org/inplaineng...g/fomc_img.jpg
Since there is a bunch of guys who don't understand each other, it cannot be good...
  • #30,977
  • May 16, 2012 12:56pm May 16, 2012 12:56pm
Does anyone know if helicopter burn your A$# Ben will be speaking after the release of the FOMC?
  • #30,978
  • May 16, 2012 1:00pm May 16, 2012 1:00pm
Several is definetly more then few or couple. Buy E/U?

Edit: bought aud/usd
  • #30,979
  • May 16, 2012 1:02pm May 16, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Does anyone know if helicopter burn your A$# Ben will be speaking after the release of the FOMC?
No. He speaks occasionally in a press conference after the FOMC rate statement... not the release of the meeting minutes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,980
  • May 16, 2012 1:03pm May 16, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting Razvan
Several is definetly more then few or couple. Buy E/U?

Edit: bought aud/usd
It was mixed because now only one supports more QE immediately as opposed to a few last time..

ADD: Looks like the economist consensus was right... a non-event. However, we may get a delayed reaction while the market absorbs the report.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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