EurAnalysis | Page 1544 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #30,861
  • Edited 2:11am May 16, 2012 1:52am | Edited 2:11am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Ok... we are 70 pips a way from this years low...
What can we expect?

My opinion is that we are in bottom now. Price may move bit down, but this is both technical and fundamental turning point.

Greece situation don't move till June 17th due new elections (if they can afford a one) - thats priced in now.

What else?
- Spain seems to take care of banks unless something new pops up.
- Italy situation is stable.
- Nothing new from Green Island.
- Portugal has been stabilizing.
- Will there be 3rd LTRO?
- Will there be QE3?

I think raging bull is now putting up a fight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: raging-bull.png Size: 211 KB
  • #30,862
  • May 16, 2012 2:02am May 16, 2012 2:02am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Oanda order book

Looks quite empty below price

Attached Image
  • #30,863
  • May 16, 2012 2:29am May 16, 2012 2:29am
Quoting AFXFin
Ok... we are 70 pips a way from this years low...
What can we expect?

My opinion is that we are in bottom now. Price may move bit down, but this is both technical and fundamental turning point.

Greece situation don't move till June 17th due new elections (if they can afford a one) - thats priced in now.

What else?
- Spain seems to take care of banks unless something new pops up.
- Italy situation is stable.
- Nothing new from Green Island.
- Portugal has been stabilizing.
- Will there be 3rd LTRO?
- Will there be QE3?

I...
I hope you're right. I need a good correction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,864
  • Edited 2:34am May 16, 2012 2:31am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting AFXFin
Ok... we are 70 pips a way from this years low...
What can we expect?

My opinion is that we are in bottom now. Price may move bit down, but this is both technical and fundamental turning point.

Greece situation don't move till June 17th due new elections (if they can afford a one) - thats priced in now.

What else?
- Spain seems to take care of banks unless something new pops up.
- Italy situation is stable.
- Nothing new from Green Island.
- Portugal has been stabilizing.
- Will there be 3rd LTRO?
- Will there be QE3?

I think raging bull...
I would wait a little more before we try and catch this falling battle axe, are times better or worse now since the last low
  • #30,865
  • May 16, 2012 2:31am May 16, 2012 2:31am
Quoting AFXFin
Oanda order book

Looks quite empty below price

Attachment
There wasn't much under 1.27 last week either... That's because the last time price was down there was in 2010

Oanda open orders from 11 May 2012

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,866
  • May 16, 2012 2:33am May 16, 2012 2:33am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
I hope you're right. I need a good correction.
Situation is quite ready to burst to sell rally. All we need is a good catalyst to start movement. Just wondering what could it be?
- Good news from Greece? No chance...
- German bond auction?
- FOCM?

Cannot say yet...

ADD: Price is about to test third time 1.268 within an hour...
  • #30,867
  • May 16, 2012 2:35am May 16, 2012 2:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
I hope you're right. I need a good correction.
my charts ( sorry cant post up!) show a old support comming in at around 1.2650. ( nice round number) so that may be where we start to correct form. but to where?

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #30,868
  • May 16, 2012 2:42am May 16, 2012 2:42am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting afos
my charts ( sorry cant post up!) show a old support comming in at around 1.2650. ( nice round number) so that may be where we start to correct form. but to where?

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Big question, but I believe it is above current price
  • #30,869
  • May 16, 2012 2:47am May 16, 2012 2:47am
I wonder - do divergencies matter at this point? Last one (yesterday m15) was good for max of 40 pips or so ( considering that one wasnt stoped before trying same play a dozen candles ago )

Now we bouncing at 161.8 extension from 1.299x and are about to close H4 (GMT) above or below this level (2691+-)...

EDIT: Ogh, and we crosed london oppening price just yet - encouraging for my stupid long..
EDIT: And a daily murray line at 2695 - watching for closes above or below
69
  • #30,870
  • May 16, 2012 3:08am May 16, 2012 3:08am
Greece: Poll sees SYRIZA gaining from possible 2nd round

14 May, 11:02

 

  1. http://ansamed.ansa.it/web/images/ic..._text_less.gif
  2. http://ansamed.ansa.it/web/images/ico_toolbar_text.gif
  3. http://ansamed.ansa.it/web/images/ic..._text_more.gif

  1. Back
  2. Back
  3. Send
  4. Scrivi alla redazione
  5. Suggest


(ANSAmed) - ATHENS, MAY 14 - Greeks believe that the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) would make the most gains if Greece holds new elections next month, when 19% of voters intend to cast their ballot for different parties from those they backed on May 6, according to a new opinion poll. The survey conducted by Public Issue for Sunday's Kathimerini suggests 52% of Greeks believe SYRIZA will probably increase its share of the vote from the 16.8% it gained last Sunday. The potential for the results in new elections to be different than on May 6 is underlined by the fact that only 81% of voters said they would stick with the parties they supported then. Despite a potential change in support for the parties, 62% of Greeks do not think that any party will emerge with a parliamentary majority from new elections. An opinion poll conducted by Public Issue in the week leading up to the May 6 elections but only published yesterday indicated that SYRIZA, which more than tripled its percentage compared to the 2009 elections, drew 37% of its supporters from PASOK and 14% from New Democracy. It also indicated that SYRIZA was by far the most popular party among Greeks aged under 55. For the neofascist Chrysi Avgi, which also enjoyed a dramatic increase in support, the survey suggested that 61% of its voters had previously supported New Democracy or PASOK. (ANSAmed).

  • #30,871
  • May 16, 2012 3:09am May 16, 2012 3:09am
Quoting Likerty
I wonder - do divergencies matter at this point? Last one (yesterday m15) was good for max of 40 pips or so ( considering that one wasnt stoped before trying same play a dozen candles ago )

Now we bouncing at 161.8 extension from 1.299x and are about to close H4 (GMT) above or below this level (2691+-)...

EDIT: Ogh, and we crosed london oppening price just yet - encouraging for my stupid long..
EDIT: And a daily murray line at 2695 - watching for closes above or below
I guess it mattered a bit
Just wasnt many volunteers to sell at these levels..
69
  • #30,872
  • May 16, 2012 3:11am May 16, 2012 3:11am
Quoting Likerty
I wonder - do divergencies matter at this point? Last one (yesterday m15) was good for max of 40 pips or so ( considering that one wasnt stoped before trying same play a dozen candles ago )

Now we bouncing at 161.8 extension from 1.299x and are about to close H4 (GMT) above or below this level (2691+-)...

EDIT: Ogh, and we crosed london oppening price just yet - encouraging for my stupid long..
EDIT: And a daily murray line at 2695 - watching for closes above or below
Divergences are only one indication. Unless there is a confluence of indications, then it is not reliable. We also need a good old reliable large time frame support which comes in around today's lows (maybe a bit lower). If we get a good bounce from there, then that would be a good opportunity to see this bearish exhaustion finally unwound. Patience is key.

ADD: I must add that if support does not hold, then it's all over and Euro is in a possible free fall (unless it's a fakey Breaky)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,873
  • May 16, 2012 3:14am May 16, 2012 3:14am
Quoting Likerty
I guess it mattered a bit
Just wasnt many volunteers to sell at these levels..
A good long term support is always good for a short covering... unless we're in a full or semi apocalyptic situation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,874
  • May 16, 2012 3:14am May 16, 2012 3:14am
Cha-ching! Just banked 30 pips E/U long scalp.
  • #30,875
  • May 16, 2012 3:16am May 16, 2012 3:16am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: genuinelyFX_2012.05.16_eurusd_hourly.jpg Size: 139 KB
charting the euro...
  • #30,876
  • May 16, 2012 3:17am May 16, 2012 3:17am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
I'd switch places with you in a heartbeat. . My hair is getting thin.
Patience my friend. I think we may have finally hit a solid support. I heard a thunking sound and it seems to be bouncing nicely. If we can break yesterday's high, we're on our way.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,877
  • May 16, 2012 3:18am May 16, 2012 3:18am
Looks like possible pullback? Dow and S&P futures off low's. Dollar index off high's.
  • #30,878
  • May 16, 2012 3:19am May 16, 2012 3:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
Divergences are only one indication. Unless there is a confluence of indications, then it is not reliable. We also need a good old reliable large time frame support which comes in around today's lows (maybe a bit lower). If we get a good bounce from there, then that would be a good opportunity to see this bearish exhaustion finally unwound. Patience is key.

ADD: I must add that if support does not hold, then it's all over and Euro is in a possible free fall (unless it's a fakey Breaky)
Well there has been one very conflicting indication around - it's Greece
It invalidated many good setups for longs
69
  • #30,879
  • May 16, 2012 3:24am May 16, 2012 3:24am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Looks like possible correction. Dow and S&P futures off low's. Dollar index off high's.
If this turns into a decent correction, I will be targeting quite close to .3120 to 1.3150 area

That would be the PT Theorem trade

When price reaches the 88.6% fibo level of a retrace in the trend direction (In this case a bearish trend), more often than not, we get a pullback towards the 38.2% fibo level before continuation.

Daily chart speaks for itself.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 58 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,880
  • May 16, 2012 3:26am May 16, 2012 3:26am
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M0T1o0waPz...0/Patience.jpg
32 traders viewing now