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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #30,341
  • May 12, 2012 8:51am May 12, 2012 8:51am
the markets closed we shouldnt be here lol, take care all
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #30,342
  • Edited 4:13pm May 12, 2012 4:02pm | Edited 4:13pm
Just some studying of important points. Here is a 4HR chart from late February to present. Also a weekly chart as a reminder of a support area you may not have remembered. Yes I know, I still have many trend lines to draw on the weekly, and more charts to post from different TFs. I'm going to enjoy my Saturday first though!

I love scalping, but I realize how important catching 100s of pips is. Fact of the matter is, with all these bounces, y ou can take profit, go long, and get 1000s of pips even if Eur only had a 400 pip range over a few months.

I will post more charts when I see good levels such as in this chart I attached.

I'm sorry I did not recommend to take profit on Sunday last week, I honestly was never paying attention to the bigger time frames I'm still a new trader but a QUICK learner. Been trading FX 6 months, silver ETFs 6 months before that. It doesn't hurt that this algorithm is simply awesome and it's not mine. If anyone wants it just PM me.

I missed many smaller ~30-70ish scalps on this chart, as you can see. Many of which come from the 23.6 FIB

It all depends on what we do this weekend though. However, one BIG thing to keep in mind. Watch the weekly trend line support, now looks to be around 1.278-1.28. Also note the 77 fib? comes in around that area as well.

Note: Aqualine (exhaustion) typically doesn't mean much on a longer time frame than 4HR.

and I apologize for not posting these charts before now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart march to may.jpg Size: 194 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochartweekly.jpg Size: 165 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,343
  • May 12, 2012 4:34pm May 12, 2012 4:34pm
A look ahead. A downtrend that negative in slope can't hold forever.

I bet we go lower and retrace off this support area then test 61.8 Fib again.

Of course, I have no idea what the market is doing right now!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart1.jpg Size: 178 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,344
  • May 12, 2012 5:18pm May 12, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
A look ahead. A downtrend that negative in slope can't hold forever.

I bet we go lower and retrace off this support area then test 61.8 Fib again.

Of course, I have no idea what the market is doing right now!!


Now go enjoy your Saturday night before you turn into a Forexaholic like me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,345
  • May 13, 2012 2:15am May 13, 2012 2:15am
Here are 3 good counts with the same result. The difference is the deep of the support. Asia will show us which one is better. I prefer the ending diagonal because the RSI is reflecting that.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 13.05.12.2.png Size: 46 KB
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #30,346
  • May 13, 2012 3:12am May 13, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Here are 3 good counts with the same result. The difference is the deep of the support. Asia will show us which one is better. I prefer the ending diagonal because the RSI is reflecting that.
China has cut the Reserve Ratio Requirements for their banks. This kind of move is typically risk positive (Therefore most likely USD negative)

However, in an hour, the Greek president will be meeting with the Greek party leaders and at the end of those meetings we should know if Greece will have a coalition government or if parliament remains dissolved until another round of elections in June.

RRR Cut by China = Risk positive
Greece has a coalition gov = risk positive
Greek coalition failure = Risk negative

So now it is all up to the Greeks. If they can pull this off and at least form an interim coalition, we will see a significant short covering and all your counts will have to be adjusted again, but if they fail, then I think your counts are correct.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,347
  • May 13, 2012 4:19am May 13, 2012 4:19am
Here's something to watch and consider while you're waiting for the markets to open.....

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,348
  • May 13, 2012 8:35am May 13, 2012 8:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here's something to watch and consider while you're waiting for the markets to open.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLBE5QAYXp8

AAAAAAAAAAAMEN!
  • #30,349
  • May 13, 2012 10:06am May 13, 2012 10:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
China has cut the Reserve Ratio Requirements for their banks. This kind of move is typically risk positive (Therefore most likely USD negative)

However, in an hour, the Greek president will be meeting with the Greek party leaders and at the end of those meetings we should know if Greece will have a coalition government or if parliament remains dissolved until another round of elections in June.

RRR Cut by China = Risk positive
Greece has a coalition gov = risk positive
Greek coalition failure = Risk negative

So now it is all up to the...
Hi PT,
how is china's RRR event risk positive? can u plzz elaborat
  • #30,350
  • May 13, 2012 10:07am May 13, 2012 10:07am
knoholygrail u been missed.PT do u know what happen to him.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #30,351
  • May 13, 2012 10:42am May 13, 2012 10:42am
"Asian Session SETUP SURVEY" ... 23h00 daily reopen ...

###

"Asian Session SETUP SURVEY" ... final version ...

###

TABLE with ZIGZAG + PIVOT SURVEY for the EUR/USD pair:


1.)


2012-05-11_23h15 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-20 # A1 ss Full Screen E25


24 hour probabilities ...


###



This is an advanced skills ZIGZAG + PIVOT SURVEY for experienced traders and user circles of strategy development who are concerned with suitable methods of successfully trading by the use of appropriate strategies.

(UPDATE 23h00 CET) Ausblick:

This is what we have got to work with for the trading sessions ahead and the period remaining until the end of Monday & Week No. 20 ...

Text and preliminary strategies as shown in the TABLE further hints will be (maybe) mentioned later ...





palim palim





;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #30,352
  • May 13, 2012 10:50am May 13, 2012 10:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Greece has a coalition gov = risk positive
Greek coalition failure = Risk negative

So now it is all up to the Greeks. If they can pull this off and at least form an interim coalition, we will see a significant short covering and all your counts will have to be adjusted again, but if they fail, then I think your counts are correct.
As with anything else, there are always multiple interpretations possible. Here's another viable interpretation:

Greece forms coalition government
Interpretation: the two parties that have committed to austerity and reform have given in to the party that rejects the current agreement. Outlook for Greece remaining in the EZ is unfavorable, and Euro tanks immediately.

Greece coalition failure
Interpretation: the question is put once again to Greek voters, giving them yet another chance to submit to a difficult austerity program. Greece is thereby given a short reprieve (until the next elections), and hopium remains strong that Greece will remain in EZ, and that complete disaster can be avoided. Euro retraces temporarily on these hopes.

At this point it looks as if no coalition government could be formed. Let's see what the market reaction is.
Student of the Markets
  • #30,353
  • May 13, 2012 11:20am May 13, 2012 11:20am
Looks like the meeting ends earlier.. any possibilities of gap down on SUnday open?
  • #30,354
  • May 13, 2012 12:06pm May 13, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting dchristi
As with anything else, there are always multiple interpretations possible. Here's another viable interpretation:

Greece forms coalition government
Interpretation: the two parties that have committed to austerity and reform have given in to the party that rejects the current agreement. Outlook for Greece remaining in the EZ is unfavorable, and Euro tanks immediately.

Greece coalition failure
Interpretation: the question is put once again to Greek voters, giving them yet another chance to submit to a difficult...
The writer of the quoted interpretations fails to realize that if Greeks return to the polls, by the time all is said and done, Greece would be out of money and thereby default on either its public debts, or its pension disbursements & civil servants' payrolls, or both.

Also, the forming of a coalition is only possible if all the coalition parties agree to honour the bailout conditions. If that is the case, risks of bankruptcy and a Euro Exit (Grexit) will vaporize as the Troika will immediately resume the payments to Greece as agreed for the next 18 months.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,355
  • May 13, 2012 12:15pm May 13, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The writer of the quoted interpretations fails to realize that if Greeks return to the polls, by the time all is said and done, Greece would be out of money and thereby default on either its public debts, or its pension disbursements & civil servants' payrolls, or both.

Also, the forming of a coalition is only possible if all the coalition parties agree to honour the bailout conditions. If that is the case, risks of bankruptcy and a Euro Exit (Grexit) will vaporize as the Troika will immediately resume the payments to Greece as agreed for the...
Latest news update.
The meetings with the president are not over yet and he will make statement round 22.00 greek time.
  • #30,356
  • May 13, 2012 12:15pm May 13, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting PeepPeep
Hi PT,
how is china's RRR event risk positive? can u plzz elaborat
It's quite simple actually. The RRR (Reserve Ratio Requirement) represents the amount of cash the banks have to have on hand as a percentage of their balance sheet (Outstanding loans and investments due to the bank).
Their balance sheets are bloated and they therefore cannot lend out any more money to business and consumers. That is bad news for the economy. The situation will get worse if their debtors start defaulting on their loans to the bank or any of the bank's securities lose value.

Relaxing the RRR, alleviates the bloated balance sheet and gives the banks more breathing room to continue conducting business and avert a credit crunch.

That may not be totally risk positive but it certainly avoids (at least temporarily) a very risk negative credit event.

Anybody short the market on that fear, should now consider covering that short. However, it may very well be more than offset by the Greek situation now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,357
  • May 13, 2012 12:19pm May 13, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting drzakir123
knoholygrail u been missed.PT do u know what happen to him.
Hey Doc. Kno has been a knoty boy and is being punished by the FF admins. That's all I kno
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,358
  • May 13, 2012 12:23pm May 13, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It's quite simple actually. The RRR (Reserve Ratio Requirement) represents the amount of cash the banks have to have on hand as a percentage of their balance sheet (Outstanding loans and investments due to the bank).
Their balance sheets are bloated and they therefore cannot lend out any more money to business and consumers. That is bad news for the economy. The situation will get worse if their debtors start defaulting on their loans to the bank or any of the bank's securities lose value.

Relaxing the RRR, alleviates the bloated balance sheet...

Here is a handy online calculator to represent RRR. if you plant the old and new china RRR you can see the change in total money supply at the end and if you scale it up to the millions and millions you can see clearly how it helps the AUD.

http://www.mathcelebrity.com/moneymultiplier.php
  • #30,359
  • May 13, 2012 12:32pm May 13, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Here is a handy online calculator to represent RRR. if you plant the old and new china RRR you can see the change in total money supply at the end and if you scale it up to the millions and millions you can see clearly how it helps the AUD.

http://www.mathcelebrity.com/moneymultiplier.php
Thanks Jeremy. That's awesome
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,360
  • May 13, 2012 12:32pm May 13, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Here is a handy online calculator to represent RRR. if you plant the old and new china RRR you can see the change in total money supply at the end and if you scale it up to the millions and millions you can see clearly how it helps the AUD.

http://www.mathcelebrity.com/moneymultiplier.php

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