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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #30,301
  • May 11, 2012 12:21pm May 11, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting tomspin
Here is a tip to be consider

Gaps especially a wide one happen when there is a divergence on friday i.e if you see a bullish divergence at the end of NY session and the PA is exhausted after drop you may expect a gap up on monday.
There is no such a thing like gaps - our brokers just shut down our feed and that gap is just rally after divergence which our broker didn't show here is an example.
It is something worth to look at on friday if you are an intraday trader and thinking about holding your position a little longer.

http://s17.postimage.org/3u3xbtjj3/div.gif
[url="http://postimage.org/"]gif...

I hope you realize that you wouldn't have any divergence if the price didn't open higher with a gap..everything was normal on those indicators on Friday. The importance of gaps is mainly because it appears on the brokers feed, so it is not important that behind doors doesn't exist. And gaps certainly doesn't happen because of any divergence on indicators.. for divergence to have a follow up, it needs volume and active sessions like London or US. More or less..
charting the euro...
  • #30,302
  • May 11, 2012 12:33pm May 11, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting shhhhh
http://s17.postimage.org/xysdx6om5/div.gif

I hope you realize that you wouldn't have any divergence if the price didn't open higher with a gap..everything was normal on those indicators on Friday. The importance of gaps is mainly because it appears on the brokers feed, so it is not important that behind doors doesn't exist. And gaps certainly doesn't happen because of any divergence on indicators.. for divergence to have a follow up, it needs volume and active sessions like London or US. More or less..
Red = Disagree
Green = Agree

There was in fact a divergence on Friday if you look at his charts closely enough. However, as you said, the divergence only means something if there is enough volume in the market to act on it. After all, divergence is a self-fulfilling indicator and not a fundamental reason for the price to move.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,303
  • May 11, 2012 12:37pm May 11, 2012 12:37pm
Now I think I have clear the picture here. We need one more low to complete the move from (b). Look the RSI we need retest that trendline to go up. There is two paths to complete the cycle ABC beginning @ 1.26. I prefer the red one because it reflecs Europe problems. The other one is a bear trap. I will get short for the weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #30,304
  • May 11, 2012 12:41pm May 11, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting dimisporos
Thanks Piptrapper.
I dont know if the gap will closed tonight but no goverment in Greece today.Monday last meeting all with the president of democracy for last try to form goverment.If not then new elections.
maybe earlier...


Hot potato! Venizelos to hand back government mandate tomorrow
Three bites at the apple so far but no one has been able to form a majority. Looks like new elections are sure bet.

From ForexLive

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,305
  • May 11, 2012 12:43pm May 11, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting shhhhh
I hope you realize that you wouldn't have any divergence if the price didn't open higher with a gap..everything was normal on those indicators on Friday. The importance of gaps is mainly because it appears on the brokers feed, so it is not important that behind doors doesn't exist. And gaps certainly doesn't happen because of any divergence on indicators.. for divergence to have a follow up, it needs volume and active sessions like London or US. More or less..
I just give you guys something to look for on friday - and I am sorry but you are wrong about it - this is just one example, check NZD/USD a week ago.
And generally try to spot them on friday for the next month or two you will have a clear view.
Thanks for your comment, have a nice weekend!
swing it!
  • #30,306
  • May 11, 2012 12:45pm May 11, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Now I think I have clear the picture here. We need one more low to complete the move from (b). Look the RSI we need retest that trendline to go up. There is two paths to complete the cycle ABC beginning @ 1.26. I prefer the red one because it reflecs Europe problems. The other one is a bear trap. I will get short for the weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone.
Considering the situation in Greece and the inability for NY to take us higher today, I might join you with a short from a higher price. Not here. If we see 2945/50 again before close, then I jump in with small position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,307
  • May 11, 2012 12:50pm May 11, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting tomspin
I just give you guys something to look for on friday - and I am sorry but you are wrong about it - this is just one example, check NZD/USD a week ago.
And generally try to spot them on friday for the next month or two you will have a clear view.
Thanks for your comment, have a nice weekend!
Well if you look at the M15 charts of the EUR/USD, you will see a very clear bullish hidden divergence between the morning lows and the afternoon lows.
You will also find a bullish divergence on the H4 chart between last Monday's lows and today's low's

So taking that into consideration, according to your theory, we should gap up over the weekend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 60 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,308
  • May 11, 2012 12:50pm May 11, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Considering the situation in Greece and the inability for NY to take us higher today, I might join you with a short from a higher price. Not here. If we see 2945/50 again before close, then I jump in with small position.
Yes, I put my sell limits in 2940
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #30,309
  • May 11, 2012 12:53pm May 11, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Red = Disagree
Green = Agree

There was in fact a divergence on Friday if you look at his charts closely enough. However, as you said, the divergence only means something if there is enough volume in the market to act on it. After all, divergence is a self-fulfilling indicator and not a fundamental reason for the price to move.
You are right, price making a new low, CCI not. But that is mainly because he uses a small parameter for the indicator and gets easily oversold [also shows way too many false divergences] and secondly that candle was still red, if the move down should have continued a little bit more, CCI would have gone down more. Everybody kinda looks differently on divergences... Have a great weekend everyone!
charting the euro...
  • #30,310
  • May 11, 2012 12:56pm May 11, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting shhhhh
You are right, price making a new low, CCI not. But that is mainly because he uses a small parameter for the indicator and gets easily oversold [also shows way too many false divergences] and secondly that candle was still red, if the move down should have continued a little bit more, CCI would have gone down more. Everybody kinda looks differently on divergences... Have a great weekend everyone!
What params do you use. My MacD is set to 12,24,9
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,311
  • May 11, 2012 12:57pm May 11, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting tomspin
I just give you guys something to look for on friday - and I am sorry but you are wrong about it - this is just one example, check NZD/USD a week ago.
And generally try to spot them on friday for the next month or two you will have a clear view.
Thanks for your comment, have a nice weekend!

Looking back at charts, you find analogies, not reasons. And divergences are way too evident when looking back, and not too clear when looking forward.

Have a great weekend too!
charting the euro...
  • #30,312
  • May 11, 2012 1:00pm May 11, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
What params do you use. My MacD is set to 12,24,9
defaults, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9). I don't think finding some personal values for them gives me and edge, rather looking at what is general seems better. My view..
charting the euro...
  • #30,313
  • May 11, 2012 1:03pm May 11, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting shhhhh
defaults, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9). I don't think finding some personal values for them gives me and edge, rather looking at what is general seems better. My view..
My view also. I have found the values that I use are quite widely used by pros and institutional analysts. That's why I use them... not because I like them

ADD: I don't use an RSI indicator. I prefer a 5 period RSX. Seems to work better in conjunction with my MacD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,314
  • May 11, 2012 1:05pm May 11, 2012 1:05pm
The day is not over yet...and so far we have only had a range of 53 pips on the day.

I see some possibility that we could still have a substantial down move this afternoon...so I'm holding my shorts from resistance at the +/- 1.2955 level (which is high of the day at this point).
Student of the Markets
  • #30,315
  • May 11, 2012 1:09pm May 11, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
My view also. I have found the values that I use are quite widely used by pros and institutional analysts. That's why I use them... not because I like them
Have a nice weekend PT and rest of the crew from EURAnalysis. I'm off.
charting the euro...
  • #30,316
  • Edited 1:25pm May 11, 2012 1:11pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
There is a confluence of resistance there. 200ema, Daily pivot, 50% - 61.6% fibo area, falling trend line. It will be tough to crack without a panic short covering leading to a run on stops. All it will take is some rumor from Greece that they are close to a deal.

Attachment
I had a feeling we wouldn't see higher than 1.296 again today. It's new resistance for now. Plus that falling trendline. I would have shorted that had I been awake Not to mention a HUGE 30minute g. doji.

Maybe we gap UP over the weekend? Greece positive rumors or something?


edit: actually make that 1.2955 resistance, which is the exact low from Sunday. funny how it works out sometimes.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,317
  • May 11, 2012 1:15pm May 11, 2012 1:15pm
all my e/u trades are now closed. and i've had a good day. Have a good weekend guys and i'll see you next week sometime.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #30,318
  • May 11, 2012 1:17pm May 11, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting billytt
all my e/u trades are now closed. and i've had a good day. Have a good weekend guys and i'll see you next week sometime.
have a great weekend, look forward to seeing you again next week.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,319
  • Edited 1:55pm May 11, 2012 1:20pm | Edited 1:55pm
Does anyone ever feel like FX trading never stops, even on the weekends?

I feel like even over the weekend I'm constantly doing things related to FX..

Like this weekend I'm starting design on my website, as well as creating dozens of different charts for different timeframes, like PT recommended.

so I should be back next weekend with much better looking charts, much easier on the eyes
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,320
  • May 11, 2012 1:20pm May 11, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I had a feeling we wouldn't see higher than 1.296 again today. It's new resistance for now. Plus that falling trendline. I would have shorted that had I been awake Not to mention a HUGE 30minute g. doji.

Maybe we gap UP over the weekend? Greece positive rumors or something?
At this point I am willing to take a very small position short with a mini lot at 2945/50 area. If I do it and price gaps up on the weekend, it's no big deal. With a mini lot I can afford hundreds of pips worth of draw down without breaking a sweat. Considering the deal on Greece right now (and let's not forget Spain), the odds are in my favor.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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