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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #30,161
  • May 10, 2012 9:28pm May 10, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting dchristi
So, you are predicting further down tonight? Or are we heading up to fill the gap?

Or are you just commenting on the long term trend (which I can't believe, since everyone realizes we've been going down).
Price Action not happen in straight line. So with refer to all the posts I made from 3rd May of this month we are going to test 1.25 - 1.26 level within next 30 days max.

Today we already had a test at 1.2900 level so the count is now 2, another attempt there will be fatal and final for breaking the door and way to down, until that happens I am looking forward to see 1.30 reloaded with proper volume of shorts.

However reaching 1.30 seems tough. But with supply from there is very good chance to broke the 1.2900 Demand Zone.
  • #30,162
  • May 10, 2012 9:30pm May 10, 2012 9:30pm
Excellent execution Bill ... I am trying to learn the method may be will try in next month and PM you if further help needed on understanding. cheers
  • #30,163
  • May 10, 2012 9:36pm May 10, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting rekon67
Price Action not happen in straight line. So with refer to all the posts I made from 3rd May of this month we are going to test 1.25 - 1.26 level within next 30 days max.

Today we already had a test at 1.2900 level so the count is now 2, another attempt there will be fatal and final for breaking the door and way to down, until that happens I am looking forward to see 1.30 reloaded with proper volume of shorts.

However reaching 1.30 seems tough. But with supply from there is very good chance to broke the 1.2900 Demand Zone.
Thanks Rekon...I appreciate learning your views. (And by the way, I agree with you that we will be testing 1.25 or so pretty soon.)
Student of the Markets
  • #30,164
  • May 10, 2012 9:45pm May 10, 2012 9:45pm
i will try to help friend but you will have to think different. yesterday i visited room but kept quiet as a lot of people spoke in a way which i thought was negative. i am not here to argue and shout out my view lol. The market will go down/up or up/down i do not give a damn which way it goes but i do prefer downwards lol.This week i only traded thursday as i was on a nice little earner teaching a young man how to trade. He speaks 5 or 6 languages and is around 23 years of age.He blew £18000 on one trade because he said he was certain the e/u was going south lol and he couldnt show me why lol. Anyway i told his father (rich daddy) and i am not prepared to show anybody anything if they dont have a plan. If there is a trade to be made it it has to be taken
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #30,165
  • May 10, 2012 9:57pm May 10, 2012 9:57pm
goodnight guys from uk, lets hope the pips come in for you.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #30,166
  • May 10, 2012 10:05pm May 10, 2012 10:05pm
short at 61.8 fib retracement of latest move, 2928, tight stop
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,167
  • May 10, 2012 10:57pm May 10, 2012 10:57pm
these bastards do it every time... they just have to take it slightly higher...stopped out within 0.5 of a pip at 2931, t hen the market moved rolled over right after that.

im gonna get you soon!!

edit: now rallying again. can you say chop chop?
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,168
  • Edited 1:03am May 11, 2012 12:35am | Edited 1:03am
Good morning all,

From where I sit I see we are now sitting on a precipice with this pair.
On the one hand we have a very risk averse market on our hands which is negative for this pair, especially with the Greek political deadlock in play.
On the other hand it is Friday and I expect some position closing to take place. Since the pair looks to be heavily net short, profit taking means that it will be positive for the pair.

With the above in mind, this is how I am going to play it.
1.30 is now seen as a sell (supply) zone. Therefore I expect lots of stops above it
1.29 has an option barrier which will be defended by interested parties and therefore has stops below it.

So there you have it. We are in a 1.29 - 1.30 box trade. The first side to pop, will trigger a stop run.

Based on the general sentiment out there, I am more inclined to believe that the bottom will give out easier than the top.

Time will tell.

E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,169
  • May 11, 2012 12:46am May 11, 2012 12:46am
Here's what just happened, but im hesitant to short still. maybe if we test 1.293 again or the trend line i might try small short

just reinstalled mtr4 so i still have a lot to setup on the chart
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,170
  • May 11, 2012 12:47am May 11, 2012 12:47am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Has anyone noticed that this forum has 2012 pages. Party On!

PT, You are early bird today.... Good Morning to you.

I'll grab more coffee to get started and do some auction event list.
  • #30,171
  • May 11, 2012 12:50am May 11, 2012 12:50am
Quoting AFXFin
Has anyone noticed that this forum has 2012 pages. Party On!

PT, You are early bird today.... Good Morning to you.

I'll grab more coffee to get started and do some auction event list.
WooHoo 2012 pages
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,172
  • May 11, 2012 12:51am May 11, 2012 12:51am
Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
May 11, 2012 at 05:47 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2970/90, buy stops through 1.3000 Bids ahead of 1.2900 barrier from sovereigns and option names., sell stops down through 1.2895

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6090/00, tech support 1.6065/70 offers 1.6150/60, larger at 1.6170/80

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.7995/00, sell stops through 0.7990. Offers 0.8045/50 and 0.8060/65

USD/JPY: Bids 79.40/50 (possibly semi-official), very large stops just below. Offers 88.00/10 from exporters, models and funds

EUR/JPY: Offers 103.50/60, tech res towards 103.75/80 and 104.00/10. Bids 102.95/05, 102.50/60 (102.54 61.8% of this year’s rally), heavy sell stops below.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0050/60 and 1.0025/35, larger ahead of parity. Offers from 1.0080 up to 1.0100/10, buy stops through 1.0140.

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9300/10, Bids 0.9280/85, tech sup 0.9255/60

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10 (SNB), offers 1.2015/25

NZD/USD: Tech sup/bids 0.7830/35, offers 0.7865/70, tech res 0.7895/00
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,173
  • May 11, 2012 12:58am May 11, 2012 12:58am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Times in GMT

May 11
07:10 ItalyBOT auction May 11
08:00 BelgiumOLO mini bond auction
09:00 European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
13:30 Fed’s Fisher Speaks on too Big to Fail

So it is friday - My opinion is that no one dares to do any radical today when it comes to Euro. Like PT said - it's all about Greece and since results of negotiations come during weekend I think it's Risk-off day.

Because of option barrier, price should go quite flat till NY.
  • #30,174
  • May 11, 2012 12:58am May 11, 2012 12:58am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,175
  • May 11, 2012 1:04am May 11, 2012 1:04am
I heard 1.29 is being defended heavily for now.. talking forex, but this looks bad
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,176
  • May 11, 2012 1:08am May 11, 2012 1:08am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I heard 1.29 is being defended heavily for now.. talking forex, but this looks bad
I feel 1.29 will pop today.. but that's just a feeling. Like the old Toyota adverts.

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #30,177
  • May 11, 2012 1:09am May 11, 2012 1:09am
fireworks already

should have shorted the trendline. i actually did but chickened out lol
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #30,178
  • May 11, 2012 1:13am May 11, 2012 1:13am
There has been many post since the start of this week which are indicating for correction of euro which was little high in the start of the week but now around 1.308-1.311 (still high for me)....I read the post and I am wondering why and most importantly how this correction will take place...We arent just following normal economic calender per week/month....The political scenerio in greeec is getting worse , the banking sector in spain is under fire , day after day the scenrio of europe is showing more indications of collapsing ,etc so there are so much –neg news coming out from them ,then why and how we will see correction of 160-190 pips.Yes in this situation which is building up in europe we can see a correction of 70-90 pips but not more then that....(IMO which we had yesterday)
This is JMO so no offence to anyone and the reality is that the whole scenerio can be change in any moment so any one can be right
I am still very bearish on eu and dont see any correction till around 1.2715-1.27x unless and untill there will be an other hopium given by europian leaders (in which they are speacialized )
I wont long this sucker unless there is a solid +pos news coming out which I doubt in this circumstances , so I will only short this sucker in hopium rally same as Master PT is waiting for...But honestly PT I dont see eu will get a correction to 1.308
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #30,179
  • May 11, 2012 1:14am May 11, 2012 1:14am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Option Expiries on EURUSD at 1.2950 and 1.2975...
  • #30,180
  • May 11, 2012 1:25am May 11, 2012 1:25am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting Harpe Eagle
There has been many post since the start of this week which are indicating for correction of euro which was little high in the start of the week but now around 1.308-1.311 (still high for me)....

I wont long this sucker unless there is a solid +pos news coming out which I doubt in this circumstances , so I will only short this sucker in hopium rally same as Master PT is waiting for...But honestly PT I dont see eu will get a correction to 1.308
Good Morning Harpy,

From technical point of view there should come proper correlation before another dive. Don't go long before proper confirmation

Fundamentaly in larger point of view, US don't want Dollar grow too strong (remember EURUSD is The Major). It would affect too much on oil price, exports of US, loan price of USD and slow down economy growth. In other hand it would be good for EUR to fall enough to speed up Euro area exports, which would strengthen EU economy.

Greece and spain are merely a small waves in a game and in a couple of years we hardly remember these incidents. This is how economy works: there is seven hunger years and seven prosperity years...
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