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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,601
  • May 10, 2012 3:06am May 10, 2012 3:06am
Quoting Trader131
Morning all and welcome Eltax!

Cable interest rate decision today- now was yesterday just a day to shake out bulls and trap bears before a rise, or the start of a push lower? We're at the top of a 4hr channel and sitting on a daily trendline. A break out of the channel could bring a significant move, but it's a news day, so there might be a fakey..
Morning mate.

I should think interest rate decisions in the UK are pretty much a given for the rest of this year. Can't see any possibility of them changing it whilst we are still in this slump. Does this deaden the impact of the news when it's such a foregone conclusion?
  • #35,602
  • May 10, 2012 4:08am May 10, 2012 4:08am
Quoting Trotty
Morning mate.

I should think interest rate decisions in the UK are pretty much a given for the rest of this year. Can't see any possibility of them changing it whilst we are still in this slump. Does this deaden the impact of the news when it's such a foregone conclusion?
Agreed, and it's unlikely the MPC will release a statement at the same time as the rate. But you can never tell.

Back to technicals, and the 4hr channel I posted earlier is still holding- I didn't take the short, can't help feeling we're due a correction in the markets soon- 6 down days on the dow in a row. I'm more comfortable looking to build longs today, with the odd short scalp.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,603
  • May 10, 2012 4:11am May 10, 2012 4:11am
Let's back it up with a couple of charts- Eurusd and Aussie daily
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodaily.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aussiedaily.gif Size: 30 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,604
  • May 10, 2012 5:15am May 10, 2012 5:15am
Long Aussie at 88. 15min channel developing and Sl tight below channel bottom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,605
  • May 10, 2012 5:28am May 10, 2012 5:28am
half off here at 9 pips ahead of the figure (SL was only 10, so 1st TP is better early)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.gif Size: 23 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,606
  • May 10, 2012 5:42am May 10, 2012 5:42am
Trailing SL under bottom of channel (currently at 81), so even if I am stopped out now I make a small net profit.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,607
  • May 10, 2012 5:54am May 10, 2012 5:54am
Another 1/4 off here at 17 pips ahead of 1hr 62 and daily S1 pivot on my feed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.gif Size: 23 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,608
  • May 10, 2012 6:08am May 10, 2012 6:08am
Nice bounce on cable from the news. Waiting to see if the top of the channel holds
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,609
  • May 10, 2012 6:15am May 10, 2012 6:15am
There's a real battle going on here, and Eurgbp is at 0.80 as well. A lot of GBP strength
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,610
  • May 10, 2012 6:29am May 10, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Trader131
Nice bounce on cable from the news. Waiting to see if the top of the channel holds
Daily pretty bullish. Anything could happen.
  • #35,611
  • May 10, 2012 6:41am May 10, 2012 6:41am
Taking another tiny portion off Aussie here at previous highs for 29 pips. Sl to BE on last eighth
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.gif Size: 23 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,612
  • May 10, 2012 7:04am May 10, 2012 7:04am
And closing the last part here for 37 pips near the top of the channel, and I'll look to re-enter lower again if possible. A nice easy channel trade with a low risk 10 pip stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.gif Size: 22 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,613
  • May 10, 2012 7:48pm May 10, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting Trader131
And closing the last part here for 37 pips near the top of the channel, and I'll look to re-enter lower again if possible. A nice easy channel trade with a low risk 10 pip stop
Nice trading man! It's crazy how the same setups work on any instrument. The only trading I am able to do these days is on futures in the evenings, but still use many of the techniques and setups taught by EO. With the methods in this thread it doesn't really matter what the chart is - if it is tradable, you can make money!
Cap
  • #35,614
  • May 10, 2012 8:41pm May 10, 2012 8:41pm
Hi EoHater,

I've been trading a style which is loosely based on your teachings. the jist of it is to use the moving averages as support or resistance.

trade 1h.
62 ema
50 ema
35 sma
21 ema
10 ema

when the whole thing aligns either up or down, I watch the close of the candles. i still only watch 1h only. if for example, we are in a downtrend. price shoots up past the 21 and wicks, but closes flat right at or just under the 21 ema, I would take a short and use a tp and sL the size of the previous body of the candle, OR I just bite the bullet and do a 15 pip tp/sl or 10 pip tp/sl (completely random, based on mood).

basically, it's like trading a retracement in an established trend. everything i described above is based loosely on what you taught in the early pages, except you used different ema's for the 15m and 1h. wherease i just utilize all and wait for candle closes on the 1h using each and every ema as a support or resistance line instead of using pivot points or horizontal support and resistance lines.

do you think what I described is viable in the long haul?

edit: in a LIVE trading scenario using full lots, it is NOT viable to use a 2:1 risk to reward or "go for more pips". it's unrealistic. mini lots maybe, but not bigger sizes. psychologically, it'll be very taxing and ineffective in the long haul, in my opinion.
  • #35,615
  • May 11, 2012 1:45am May 11, 2012 1:45am
Picked up a long on the EU @ 1.2912...

Already set S/L to B/E so we'll see which way we go.

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  • #35,616
  • May 11, 2012 1:48am May 11, 2012 1:48am
Quoting The Captain
Nice trading man! It's crazy how the same setups work on any instrument. The only trading I am able to do these days is on futures in the evenings, but still use many of the techniques and setups taught by EO. With the methods in this thread it doesn't really matter what the chart is - if it is tradable, you can make money!
Thanks, Captain. Yes, I agree it does work on any instrument- what EO taught was essentially price action at support and resistance- whether that S&R is floating (ma's) or trendlines/channels or just plain horizontal lines. PA at the right area works!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,617
  • May 11, 2012 2:09am May 11, 2012 2:09am
Stopped @ B/E. Was looking for a strong bounce off the 1.2900 area but not getting it yet...

Attached Image
  • #35,618
  • May 11, 2012 2:37am May 11, 2012 2:37am
Unlucky, Dharma, but BE is good. There's a lot of dollar strength out there, but seems to be decent support around 1.29 on euro. Here's my daily chart- if that trendline gets broken we could go a lot lower, but it's holding for now. I might try a cheeky long with a tight SL if I get a decent price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodaily.gif Size: 26 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,619
  • May 11, 2012 2:49am May 11, 2012 2:49am
Quoting Trader131
Unlucky, Dharma, but BE is good. There's a lot of dollar strength out there, but seems to be decent support around 1.29 on euro. Here's my daily chart- if that trendline gets broken we could go a lot lower, but it's holding for now. I might try a cheeky long with a tight SL if I get a decent price.
I "know" that I should have left my stop below the 1.2900 level but with the momentum favoring the downside I figured that I would get covered quicker than usual. Would have been nice to grab a quick 10 on half but it didn't quite get there.
  • #35,620
  • May 11, 2012 2:55am May 11, 2012 2:55am
Cable might be getting ready to move off this TL on the 1H and the 6100 figure....

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