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  • #29,941
  • May 9, 2012 7:40pm May 9, 2012 7:40pm
forexbooom how are your plenty lots doin?
  • #29,942
  • May 9, 2012 7:47pm May 9, 2012 7:47pm
Hi guys so my call has proven to be correct and to me it still looks as if she's heading lower. It took an extra day to digest the news in Europe on the weekend. I still firmly suggest all ralllies be shorted. There is no signs of ending action on the charts. The money flow also points in that direction look at the bond yields 5 yrs 10 yrs and 30 year's! The money flow don't lie.
(He who knows everything knows nothing!)
  • #29,943
  • May 9, 2012 7:54pm May 9, 2012 7:54pm
The more money they throw at Euro the more they show signs of wanting to help IMHO the lower she goes. I am shorting this retracement (it's a gift thanks to the banks!) I have orders in over night to short at 129.70
(He who knows everything knows nothing!)
  • #29,944
  • May 9, 2012 9:23pm May 9, 2012 9:23pm
My paths until now...
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #29,945
  • May 9, 2012 11:16pm May 9, 2012 11:16pm
So...here we are on Thursday morning.

In this week when the EZ seems to be literally splitting at the seams, the entire range - for the WEEK - has been 155 pips.

Wow...a WHOLE 155 pips.

To say the least, I'm underwhelmed. I mean, everyone here I'm sure has seen many days, often many successive days, each with a range of over 155 pips. And this is Thursday morning.

I think we are due for some volatility. Soon.

At least I f'ing hope so...
Student of the Markets
  • #29,946
  • May 9, 2012 11:47pm May 9, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting dchristi
So...here we are on Thursday morning.

In this week when the EZ seems to be literally splitting at the seams, the entire range - for the WEEK - has been 155 pips.

Wow...a WHOLE 155 pips.

To say the least, I'm underwhelmed. I mean, everyone here I'm sure has seen many days, often many successive days, each with a range of over 155 pips. And this is Thursday morning.

I think we are due for some volatility. Soon.

At least I f'ing hope so...
You mean you are disapointed because candles are not moving Up and Downs? Mostly downs? And only 155 pips down this week? More than 300 pips in two weeks?

But as I can see if price moves around 100 pips a day you can happily call it a volatile day of the market.

Remember we are in a strong bearish trend which is heading slowly to 1.25 for a test within next month or so.
  • #29,947
  • May 9, 2012 11:47pm May 9, 2012 11:47pm
Evening and good morning everyone.

I have no idea whats going to happen today.

Maybe 1.297 and then down more.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,948
  • May 10, 2012 12:00am May 10, 2012 12:00am
Quoting rekon67
You mean you are disapointed because candles are not moving Up and Downs? Mostly downs? And only 155 pips down this week? More than 300 pips in two weeks?

But as I can see if price moves around 100 pips a day you can happily call it a volatile day of the market.

Remember we are in a strong bearish trend which is heading slowly to 1.25 for a test within next month or so.
I see your point, but we haven't had a single day this week with 100 pips movement.

That's my point. Volatility has been historically low for this pair during a week when major developments (namely the elections, and the implications for ECB exchange rates and policy) have been announced.

I actually wasn't saying I was disappointed (although I am). What I'm really saying is that there is a mismatch between events in the EZ and the volatility of this pair.

And...I expect we will see that volatility. Soon.

We have been ranging for months now, and the market has been storing up energy that is going to be released sooner or later. We have just broken out of that range. I'm thinking the time for an increase in volatility is...now.
Student of the Markets
  • #29,949
  • May 10, 2012 12:15am May 10, 2012 12:15am
We just bounced off Sunday's low...1.2955.

Good short opportunity with tight stops, although I get the sense the market wants to go higher.
Student of the Markets
  • #29,950
  • May 10, 2012 12:23am May 10, 2012 12:23am
Quoting dchristi
I see your point, but we haven't had a single day this week with 100 pips movement.

That's my point. Volatility has been historically low for this pair during a week when major developments (namely the elections, and the implications for ECB exchange rates and policy) have been announced.

I actually wasn't saying I was disappointed (although I am). What I'm really saying is that there is a mismatch between events in the EZ and the volatility of this pair.

And...I expect we will see that volatility. Soon.

We have been ranging for months...
Try yen pairs or SPX500
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #29,951
  • May 10, 2012 12:27am May 10, 2012 12:27am
Quoting dchristi
Price just bounced off the bottom of the range I've been talking about (@1.2995).

Good short opportunity with close stops.
By the way...that was a short off the high of the day yesterday.

Hope I wasn't the only one who took it.
Student of the Markets
  • #29,952
  • May 10, 2012 12:45am May 10, 2012 12:45am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Try yen pairs or SPX500
For some reason, I decided a few years ago to concentrate on EUR/USD -- and that's the only market I follow. In the past, volatility has been good.

It's just very slow these days...
Student of the Markets
  • #29,953
  • May 10, 2012 12:47am May 10, 2012 12:47am
Hi Everybody!

I have been following this thread for a little over a week now and I must say I am impressed with everybody's contributions.

Just wanted to say thank you to PipTrapper for starting this thread and bringing your expertise to the forum.

I look forward to contributing to this thread and learning from each and every one of you.

By the way, I have read through the rules a few times, but if I do something I'm not supposed to, please let me know!

Happy Trading!
  • #29,954
  • May 10, 2012 12:55am May 10, 2012 12:55am
  •  gil
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: try to master himself first | 63 Posts
Hi guys,

I am looking for an understanding of the news which will come soon.
"Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation."
From what i can read it is going to be :
"It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint".
and
"The European Central Bank publishes a monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the ECB".

But it is all foggy to me, where can i get some details about all this.
Hope it is clear.

Gil
  • #29,955
  • May 10, 2012 1:09am May 10, 2012 1:09am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Not much, just US which don't have any effect.
Time in GMT.

May 10
14:00USAnnounces auction of 10Y TIPs on May 17 May 10
16:00USAuctions Usd 16.0bn 30Y Bonds

Other notable events
10-11 May ECB's Praet, Nowotny, EFSF's Regling at Vienna Conference

9:00 ECB Publishes May Monthly Report
11.00 Bundesbank's Dombret Debates on Financial Crisis Resolution
14:30 Fed's Bernanke to Speak on Bank Capital in Chicago

Not much - everybody is waiting for Greece to collapse.

Samaras from new Demograts gave up making government, Tsipras the Lefty gave up - now it Venezuelos of PASOK's turn to try. I say: Technocrat government or exit from Eurozone.

One Finn Loudmouth Parliament member from Populist party "Base Finns" said publicly that Greece should Get Military Junta and Tanks on a streets in order to save country - He got sacked from his Party for two weeks as punishment. I do have to agree with him though...
  • #29,956
  • May 10, 2012 1:24am May 10, 2012 1:24am
Quoting gil
Hi guys,

I am looking for an understanding of the news which will come soon.
"Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation."
From what i can read it is going to be :
"It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint".
and
"The European Central Bank publishes a monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the...
In order to come out of the fog, you need to understand how monetary policy works at the ECB. The ECB's mandate is "Price Stability". In other words they have the responsibility to control inflation and deflation. Their target is at or near 2% inflation.

The normal method of inflation control is interest rates. They determine whether or not to change rates through analysis of all economic factors which includes indicators for costs and activity in all business and industrial sectors, the health of banks and governments, etc. There is way too much data for us lay people to fully understand. In fact I doubt very much that any one ECB governing council member understands it all, but they muddle through.

The ECB (Like all central banks) are independent of government and are supposed to make decisions based on economic data only. Unfortunately it does not work that way in real life for the ECB. They are very much influenced by politics in their decisions and the most influential is Germany. Mario Draghi will deny this until he is blue in the face because it is his job to do so, but the writing is on the wall. This means that no matter how much the data suggests that a rate cut is needed, it will not happen until Germany says it is okay to do so in a back room. Basically the data means nothing unless there is political will to act on it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,957
  • May 10, 2012 1:40am May 10, 2012 1:40am
  •  gil
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: try to master himself first | 63 Posts
Thanks very instructive.
  • #29,958
  • May 10, 2012 1:46am May 10, 2012 1:46am
Good morning all.

Based on current PA this morning, it is starting to look like a correction is primed and ready to start... or at least I hope so. In a news (fear) driven market, it's hard to call. This week it is all about Greece. Today Venizelos gets his crack at forming a coalition government. If he fails, it's more down and probably won't stop for a while. If he succeeds, then we're in for a short squeeze.

This morning, price has already poked its head above the daily pivot and the first of two falling trend line resistance points. Let's see what happens from here.

E/U H1
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,959
  • May 10, 2012 1:47am May 10, 2012 1:47am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
In order to come out of the fog, you need to understand how monetary policy works at the ECB. The ECB's mandate is "Price Stability". In other words they have the responsibility to control inflation and deflation. Their target is at or near 2% inflation.
Funny thing that Interest rate should correlate with inflation rate which is not happening. All LTRO and low interest rates are actually speeding up inflation in long term.
  • #29,960
  • May 10, 2012 1:50am May 10, 2012 1:50am
Quoting AFXFin
Funny thing that Interest rate should correlate with inflation rate which is not happening. All LTRO and low interest rates are actually speeding up inflation in long term.
Yep... In this case it is a case of a bit of pain (higher than normal inflation) for some perceived gain (Buy time for the governments to screw things up a bit more)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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