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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #29,921
  • May 9, 2012 10:13am May 9, 2012 10:13am
Hi buddy, i am just off. I have been coaching a young man on trading hence my own lack of trading this week. (his father paid well) lol, But soon as i came back i made a .50p trade and then compounded it on dow at £1 per pip, both went in. These 2 trade were for your/this room benefit i can show you the results if you wish. take care i am away for a while.Happy trading
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #29,922
  • May 9, 2012 10:14am May 9, 2012 10:14am
see hunter, PT explained it well lol. Take care friends
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #29,923
  • May 9, 2012 10:18am May 9, 2012 10:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is a high risk pseudo-martingale move to rescue an underwater trade. However, when executed at the right time and in non-over-leveraged conditions, it has a very high rate of success with minimal loss potential. It should only be used in cases where you are still underexposed. Therefore the underwater trade must have been executed with a fraction of your normal lot size so that the total exposure of the initial position plus the rescue position does not exceed your maximum exposure according to your money management scheme.
one example could be, feel free to correct me , this strategy is based on only todays scenario.

today in asian session you bought e/u at 1.3005 lot size .5
e/u dive lower after minus 50 you bought again lot size .25
e/u further dive lower after further minus 30 total 80 pips underwater you bought again lot size .75 or .8 or 1
  • #29,924
  • May 9, 2012 10:19am May 9, 2012 10:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is a high risk pseudo-martingale move to rescue an underwater trade. However, when executed at the right time and in non-over-leveraged conditions, it has a very high rate of success with minimal loss potential. It should only be used in cases where you are still underexposed. Therefore the underwater trade must have been executed with a fraction of your normal lot size so that the total exposure of the initial position plus the rescue position does not exceed your maximum exposure according to your money management scheme.

Thanx. Could be risky if used wrongly. All depends on the leverage one uses. Thanx for something to look into.
  • #29,925
  • May 9, 2012 10:19am May 9, 2012 10:19am
Quoting billytt
Hi buddy, i am just off. I have been coaching a young man on trading hence my own lack of trading this week. (his father paid well) lol, But soon as i came back i made a .50p trade and then compounded it on dow at £1 per pip, both went in. These 2 trade were for your/this room benefit i can show you the results if you wish. take care i am away for a while.Happy trading
great bill ...
  • #29,926
  • May 9, 2012 10:23am May 9, 2012 10:23am
Quoting rekon67
one example could be, feel free to correct me , this strategy is based on only todays scenario.

today in asian session you bought e/u at 1.3005 lot size .5
e/u dive lower after minus 50 you bought again lot size .25
e/u further dive lower after further minus 30 total 80 pips underwater you bought again lot size .75 or .8 or 1
No.. that is Martingale... where you increase the lot size each time.. Very dangerous and a recipe for disaster. Never do it on a contra trend.. ever. That is suicide.

This is more like selling into a corrective rally but you picked the wrong high and it went up further, so you take another sell (with the same lot size as the first position) at the next stop or point of exhaustion. To break even, you only need a 50% retrace down to your original position. If you're confident it will keep going down, then keep them both till you hit TP. It is more like reverse scaling in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,927
  • May 9, 2012 10:37am May 9, 2012 10:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am a patient bear.

At some point somebody is going to say something that will scare some of the bears into covering their shorts... or the market will go sideways long enough to bore the socks off other bears who will cover their shorts. This kind of move is sure to trigger some buy stops along the way and draw in the lemmings and technical traders.

I am a patient bear, still waiting with my sell limit order at the weekend gap

E/U H4
Attachment
Attachment

The talking heads have started already.

1. Greece will get its next aid tranche of €5.2 Billion from the EFSF
2. ECB's Nowotny sees signs of improved stabilization in Europe (What's he smoking?)
3. Morgan Stanley are throwing some money in to Euros to save themselves from a credit rating downgrade
4. A PASOK party official is saying that they are making progress in Athens over forming a coalition.

See? I knew it wouldn't take long. E/U is already up 55 pips from the low and has broken the 1.2950 resistance. A few more hopium comments and we get a short squeeze.

ADD: I forgot one thing. There is now chatter that the PBOC may look to diversify more of their USD reserves into Euros. (Hmm... They must be smoking the same stuff as Nowotny)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,928
  • May 9, 2012 11:29am May 9, 2012 11:29am
Hey Pip, very good comments there (as usual).

I'm eyeballing 1.288x before short covering/SNB intervention (we're pretty close to 1.20 on EUR/CHF atm) and off we'll jump to 1.308x - This is where I have set up my trap (considering of shorting heavily there with tight SL - 20pts). The fundamentals haven't changed: elections in France and Greece are certainly not conducive to Euro going up. However, a weak Euro should benefit the exports for Germany so it's in everyone's interest to

Quoting PipTrapper
The talking heads have started already.

1. Greece will get its next aid tranche of €5.2 Billion from the EFSF
2. ECB's Nowotny sees signs of improved stabilization in Europe (What's he smoking?)
3. Morgan Stanley are throwing some money in to Euros to save themselves from a credit rating downgrade
4. A PASOK party official is saying that they are making progress in Athens over forming a coalition.

See? I knew it wouldn't take long. E/U is already up 55 pips from the low and has broken the 1.2950 resistance. A few more hopium comments and we...
  • #29,929
  • May 9, 2012 11:56am May 9, 2012 11:56am
I have more clear the picture in the dollar. So there you go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #29,930
  • May 9, 2012 12:02pm May 9, 2012 12:02pm
1.2977 up
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,931
  • May 9, 2012 12:09pm May 9, 2012 12:09pm
louis...dont be naughty
Rekon dont be horny

oh am drunk

just a good hard working and beautiful girl keep looking at me,am running away...


good nitez...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,932
  • May 9, 2012 12:16pm May 9, 2012 12:16pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Here is true situation - I believe this is conspiracy to take EURUSD down.

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  • #29,933
  • May 9, 2012 12:41pm May 9, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
I vouched for Harpy.

Great management in that support and pullback resistance, Cheers
Thank you buddy ...
The charts and analysis of yours are very good so keep posting , so that we all can learn more from you
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #29,934
  • May 9, 2012 12:46pm May 9, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting billytt
maybe PT can give a better explaination than me, b ut simply put,,,if you make a trade and it goes against you you simply keep adding more lots until it hopefully goes your way. I believe this can ruin you. I believe the better way to do it is if your trade is going your way then add more lots as it progresses this way you accumulate more. I personally wouldnt do either.
i agree with u.both stratgeis are risky in volatile markets.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #29,935
  • May 9, 2012 12:54pm May 9, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting halkins
Gooood...
So what type of traders both of you are, Harpe and PipTrapper...
I mean are you swing or intraday traders...
Once I used to be swing trader, taking only few trades per week, earlier option trader taking few trades per month, but now I am happy trying to "convert" myslef into daytrader, scalping 20-40 pips.
More fun...
I am more a day trader but when I find the right trend and executes a right trade which should be 60-90 pips +pos then I start compounding(dont know compounding is the right word to use) and then start intraday trades for 30-40 pips ....
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #29,936
  • May 9, 2012 12:56pm May 9, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting AFXFin
Here is true situation - I believe this is conspiracy to take EURUSD down.

Attachment

Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #29,937
  • May 9, 2012 1:47pm May 9, 2012 1:47pm
Tomorrow news big day, so let see if this works. Later I will put my count in EU, I was working in Pound/Yen
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #29,938
  • May 9, 2012 2:34pm May 9, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who don't have CNBC-TV or missed the doomsday talk.

1. Next year could be perfect storm for global markets
2. When Greece exits the Euro next year, it will cause contagion.
3. Spain could exit the Euro next year

Anyway, that's all next year. In the mean time I am sure the Euro will make an attempt to correct on the larger time frames... maybe up to 1.35xx or 1.36xx, but not yet. Perhaps some time in H2 2012.
i guess i got that liiiiittle ironic part
  • #29,939
  • May 9, 2012 3:19pm May 9, 2012 3:19pm
Trendline from 2970 broken.. but already a new one formed and is holding..

Not that it matters at all really.. just pointing out how important trend lines are, even the smallest of intraday trendlines

No volume for 10 minutes than big candle that pushes through the trendline.

Trendline from 3040 has not been tested yet
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,940
  • May 9, 2012 3:46pm May 9, 2012 3:46pm
More news out that's Euro negative

1. Germany is now back-peddling on their austerity drive. Now willing to accept higher inflation targets which means they will not object to an ECB rate cut.

2. The Greek Syriza party led by Tsipras (The dude who wants to put Greece in default and go back to the Drachma) has gained popularity in the polls since the election from about 16% to 25%. If the elected pols are not able to form a coalition gov and they have another election, this will spell disaster for the Euro.

Let's see how the market reacts to this overnight and tomorrow. Should be interesting.

I guess I'll have to be patient a lot longer than I thought.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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