EurAnalysis | Page 1489 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #29,761
  • May 8, 2012 3:40pm May 8, 2012 3:40pm
BFSG if you follow the heard you wil get slaughter as all animals usually are! I've been trading for 25 years plus! Do your trades as you see fit, don't let emotions get in the way. Stick to your trading plan. Pay no attention to what others do if what you see differs in my eyes that's a positive note.. "The market never does what it's supposed to do" havent we all heard that one? How many times does it fly though support and resistance? Charts are a great reference point but only make up a small part of the whole picture. Again just some of my life's experience.
(He who knows everything knows nothing!)
  • #29,762
  • May 8, 2012 3:58pm May 8, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting stormstopper
BFSG if you follow the heard you wil get slaughter as all animals usually are! I've been trading for 25 years plus! Do your trades as you see fit, don't let emotions get in the way. Stick to your trading plan. Pay no attention to what others do if what you see differs in my eyes that's a positive note.. "The market never does what it's supposed to do" havent we all heard that one? How many times does it fly though support and resistance? Charts are a great reference point but only make up a small part of the whole picture. Again just some of...
http://i.imgur.com/wbKAB.jpg
  • #29,763
  • May 8, 2012 3:59pm May 8, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting bman204
http://i.imgur.com/wbKAB.jpg
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I'm stealing this. Infact I might blow it up to 5x5feet and place it on the wall behind my monitor.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,764
  • May 8, 2012 4:01pm May 8, 2012 4:01pm
Love it!!!!!! You Pipper
(He who knows everything knows nothing!)
  • #29,765
  • May 8, 2012 4:01pm May 8, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting stormstopper
BFSG if you follow the heard you wil get slaughter as all animals usually are! I've been trading for 25 years plus! Do your trades as you see fit, don't let emotions get in the way. Stick to your trading plan. Pay no attention to what others do if what you see differs in my eyes that's a positive note.. "The market never does what it's supposed to do" havent we all heard that one? How many times does it fly though support and resistance? Charts are a great reference point but only make up a small part of the whole picture. Again just some of...
I agree, but to make money, you HAVE to be on the side of the herd. I guess we just have a different definition of herd.

Unless that herd doesn't include any big money.

But is it herd mentality to sell the Euro? Sort of, but that doesn't mean its not right


Long 1.3004, stop at 1.298, gambling on 1.30 holding
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,766
  • May 8, 2012 4:13pm May 8, 2012 4:13pm
Hi,

I would like to show at your attention the following pattern: THE BAT.

In eur usd H1 timeframe is now forming a nice Bat, X point is at 1.3177, A point is at 1.2952, B point at 1.3065 and C point at 1.2982. This pattern have a profit target of 1.618/2.618 of BC leg. Actually is starting leg CD.


forexBOOM
  • #29,767
  • May 8, 2012 4:18pm May 8, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting forexboom
Hi,

I would like to show at your attention the following pattern: THE BAT.

In eur usd H1 timeframe is now forming a nice Bat, X point is at 1.3177, A point is at 1.2952, B point at 1.3065 and C point at 1.2982. This pattern have a profit target of 1.618/2.618 of BC leg. Actually is starting leg CD.


forexBOOM
You are expecting 1.618 or 2.618? from the eurusd? I'm confused.. Maybe after QE3... but I honestly can't see how we will ever get that high for Euro again
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,768
  • May 8, 2012 4:20pm May 8, 2012 4:20pm
i think hes talking about Fibonacci extension
  • #29,769
  • May 8, 2012 4:22pm May 8, 2012 4:22pm
Stopped out to the pip.. at 29980 bastards
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,770
  • May 8, 2012 4:22pm May 8, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
You are expecting 1.618 or 2.618? from the eurusd? I'm confused.. Maybe after QE3... but I honestly can't see how we will ever get that high for Euro again
HI,

1.618 is 1.3115, 2.618 is 1.3200. I'm expecting that the common pair will reach at least 1.618 extension, if the pattern will work. SL is 5/10 pips below point A. Entering now is 40 pips SL, Vs 115/200 pips profit, 1:3, 1:5.

forexBOOM
  • #29,771
  • May 8, 2012 4:23pm May 8, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting neuron
i think hes talking about Fibonacci extension
ah alright.. i'm confused now
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,772
  • May 8, 2012 4:24pm May 8, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
I agree, but to make money, you HAVE to be on the side of the herd. I guess we just have a different definition of herd.

Unless that herd doesn't include any big money.

But is it herd mentality to sell the Euro? Sort of, but that doesn't mean its not right


Long 1.3004, stop at 1.298, gambling on 1.30 holding
The herd is always right...except at turning points. At those times it's better to get out in front of the pack, so that once everyone else realizes what has happened, you're already deep in the green, and their attempts to get on the right side of the market ensure that price keeps moving in your direction.
Student of the Markets
  • #29,773
  • May 8, 2012 4:26pm May 8, 2012 4:26pm
Very true. Maximum reward, minimum capital risk.

Kind of why I tried a long at 3004, got stopped out for -6 though

Perhaps we have corrected enough already..?

Herd mentality would be too look for a higher place to short, so maybe 3065 was it because everyone was thinking that so strongly we would see higher..

edit: that was stupid, should have set S/L below the 61.8 (2995) fib incase it holds
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,774
  • May 8, 2012 4:27pm May 8, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
You are expecting 1.618 or 2.618? from the eurusd? I'm confused.. Maybe after QE3... but I honestly can't see how we will ever get that high for Euro again
The bat is a harmonic pattern

1.618 is actually 161.8%
So in this case the C-D leg of the pattern can be anywhere from 161.8% to 261.8% of the B-C leg
The exact retrace will depend on the other two (A-B & B-C) but in the end, A-D will be 88.6% of X-A

The bat shown below (like the one potentially being formed in the charts) is a bearish bat and you typically execute a short position as soon as D is reached. Some traders execute a long at C but for me that is less than a 50% probability, hence a coin toss. Executing a short at D has a much higher probability of success.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/batbearre.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,775
  • May 8, 2012 4:30pm May 8, 2012 4:30pm
I think we've just encountered a bull trap.

If I'm correct (which would be nice for a change) the turning point was when price tested the daily high at 1.3040 and bounced back.

I think we're heading down now...way down.
Student of the Markets
  • #29,776
  • May 8, 2012 4:37pm May 8, 2012 4:37pm
Hi,

starting from 1.3178 we had in order: NFP and we lost about 100 pips to 1.3080, then we had Sarko and we lost another 60 pips to 1.3023, then we had the Greece and we landed to 1.2952. Normally news are retraced at 61.8 to 88.6% in 80% of cases. So I'm confident we will see again 1.31x.

forexBOOM
  • #29,777
  • May 8, 2012 4:37pm May 8, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting dchristi
I think we've just encountered a bull trap.

If I'm correct (which would be nice for a change) the turning point was when price tested the daily high at 1.3040 and bounced back.

I think we're heading down now...way down.
If that's the case, you certainly won't hear me complaining
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,778
  • May 8, 2012 4:42pm May 8, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting forexboom
Hi,

starting from 1.3178 we had in order: NFP and we lost about 100 pips to 1.3080, then we had Sarko and we lost another 60 pips to 1.3023, then we had the Greece and we landed to 1.2952. Normally news are retraced at 61.8 to 88.6% in 80% of cases. So I'm confident we will see again 1.31x.

forexBOOM
Unless this is one of those 20% cases

Seriously though, this is not normal news of economic figures. This is semi apocalyptic stuff. It is all about Greece and a disorderly default possibly leading to contagion spreading to Spain and Italy who are already on the brink of failure. I refuse to buy this pair. I instead wait for good shorting opportunities. I do hope it goes up, but not because I am long... only because I don't want to short the lows.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,779
  • May 8, 2012 4:55pm May 8, 2012 4:55pm
Hi,

from my holy grail I see again 1.3006, and 90% 1.3008, go with scalp....
  • #29,780
  • May 8, 2012 4:59pm May 8, 2012 4:59pm
We have a perfectly formed Bullish Butterfly pattern on M5.

However, I will not buy this turd of a pair. For those who are still willing to buy, you may want to consider this pattern as a potential signal if you are familiar with trading such patterns.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m5.gif Size: 51 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
24 traders viewing now