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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #29,501
  • May 8, 2012 12:46am May 8, 2012 12:46am
Looks like triple bottom here in the short term. We'll see
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,502
  • May 8, 2012 12:47am May 8, 2012 12:47am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting BFSGcapital
Market talk of BIS selling Euro today lol. So doubtful we correct much at all.

But a nice bounce here off 50% fib
We have to remember - it is market talk. There is always a reason for such leaks and since we are in a playground of greed and deception, I don't think they'll do it just for their good heart.
  • #29,503
  • May 8, 2012 12:48am May 8, 2012 12:48am
Quoting AFXFin
We have to remember - it is market talk. There is always a reason for such leaks and since we are in a playground of greed and deception, I don't think they'll do it just for their good heart.
I would think that way if history showed that was correct but in my experience market talk of bids and offers usually are pretty close to the good levels anyway.

It does make sense that they would want to telegraph the opposite of the position they are taking though, like Goldman.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,504
  • May 8, 2012 12:59am May 8, 2012 12:59am
Quoting BFSGcapital
I would think that way if history showed that was correct but in my experience market talk of bids and offers usually are pretty close to the good levels anyway.

It does make sense that they would want to telegraph the opposite of the position they are taking though, like Goldman.
Finney is correct. It's all market manipulation. To us retail traders, what goes on in the top floor offices of the big banks and other financial institutions is like a magic box. We only see what comes out of it but have no clue what goes on inside. It could be accurate info but then it could be misleading... much like a pool shark who will let you win a few games for small bets to give you some confidence and then take all your money on a double or nothing bet.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,505
  • May 8, 2012 1:00am May 8, 2012 1:00am
daily pivot, 30m (21 ema) and falling trend holding. Not a bad place to short with a tight stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart1.jpg Size: 143 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,506
  • May 8, 2012 1:01am May 8, 2012 1:01am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting BFSGcapital
I would think that way if history showed that was correct but in my experience market talk of bids and offers usually are pretty close to the good levels anyway.

It does make sense that they would want to telegraph the opposite of the position they are taking though, like Goldman.
Well, BIS is a liquidity provider who officially have a role of providing stabilizing funds to the market. They have no official role of making profit (though they do). Their announcements are quite solid, but from my experience the size matters in these markets.

ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.
  • #29,507
  • May 8, 2012 1:06am May 8, 2012 1:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Finney is correct. It's all market manipulation. To us retail traders, what goes on in the top floor offices of the big banks and other financial institutions is like a magic box. We only see what comes out of it but have no clue what goes on inside. It could be accurate info but then it could be misleading... much like a pool shark who will let you win a few games for small bets to give you some confidence and then take all your money on a double or nothing bet.
Yeah I agree.

So you think Euro will go higher in the short term here?

The chart would look really strange if it was to fill Fridays gap.

trendline from 1.3065 being tested here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurochart1.jpg Size: 139 KB
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,508
  • May 8, 2012 1:06am May 8, 2012 1:06am
Quoting BFSGcapital
daily pivot, 30m (21 ema) and falling trend holding. Not a bad place to short with a tight stop
I'm standing pat for now. Until we break and hold below 1.30, I have no reason to add to my positions. If anything, I may start taking some more profit off my lower shorts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,509
  • May 8, 2012 1:11am May 8, 2012 1:11am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
EFSF Auction is on right now - we should get some results soon. Not that it affects EUR, but it is interesting if they can sell those - I consider them quite risky right now.

Here is some numbers of EFSF: http://www.efsf.europa.eu/about/operations/index.htm
  • #29,510
  • May 8, 2012 1:12am May 8, 2012 1:12am
Quoting AFXFin
Well, BIS is a liquidity provider who officially have a role of providing stabilizing funds to the market. They have no official role of making profit (though they do). Their announcements are quite solid, but from my experience the size matters in these markets.

ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.
Better yet, do NOT listen the market talk
charting the euro...
  • #29,511
  • May 8, 2012 1:18am May 8, 2012 1:18am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting shhhhh
Better yet, do NOT listen the market talk
Incorrect - Listen, but read between the lines. Information is power - discarding information is stupidity - even if it's false.
  • #29,512
  • May 8, 2012 1:23am May 8, 2012 1:23am
Quoting AFXFin
Incorrect - Listen, but read between the lines. Information is power - discarding information is stupidity - even if it's false.
ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.

Re-read what you posted above. I suppose you are the gossiper among your social group. And be carefully with your words
charting the euro...
  • #29,513
  • May 8, 2012 1:27am May 8, 2012 1:27am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Yeah I agree.

So you think Euro will go higher in the short term here?

The chart would look really strange if it was to fill Fridays gap.

trendline from 1.3065 being tested here
Not really.. If it goes up from here, it will most likely head to 3120 filling the gap along the way to complete an ABC, test the 50% fibo and the H1 200ema all at the same time. But that would take either some risk-on sentiment or some sovereign euro buying. That's a tall order right now.

The alternative is to head down, break 1.30 and establish a sub 1.30 range. Filling the gap is not mandatory... and even if it was, it could do it weeks from now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,514
  • May 8, 2012 1:29am May 8, 2012 1:29am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting shhhhh
ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.

Re-read what you posted above. I suppose you are the gossiper among your social group. And be carefully with your words
Take it easy

I believe we have some language barrier here.

"Discarding" means that you don't mind about given information at all. Issue is that you do have to mind and think of what is motif behind the announcement.
  • #29,515
  • Edited 1:47am May 8, 2012 1:31am | Edited 1:47am
Quoting AFXFin
Incorrect - Listen, but read between the lines. Information is power - discarding information is stupidity - even if it's false.
Quoting shhhhh
ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.

Re-read what you posted above. I suppose you are the gossiper among your social group. And be carefully with your words
I understand exactly what Finney means and I fully agree with him. It is important to know what the market talk is because even if it is false, still certain market participants will react to it and you may see an opportunity to take advantage of that reaction.

ADD: And also as Finney pointed out in his additional post... It's good to know that there might be a hidden agenda. You can use that to your advantage also. Of course, if you are trading strictly off technicals, then you don't need to know anything. Just your charts and where you left your rabbit foot
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,516
  • May 8, 2012 1:32am May 8, 2012 1:32am
How do you like that m5 and m15 price action hm? Piercing every micro level and then coming back again - every new candle engulfs previous one...
69
  • #29,517
  • May 8, 2012 1:35am May 8, 2012 1:35am
Quoting AFXFin
Take it easy

I believe we have some language barrier here.

"Discarding" means that you don't mind about given information at all. Issue is that you do have to mind and think of what is motif behind the announcement.
The only language problem here I think is the equivalency between market talk=information. But, moving on..
charting the euro...
  • #29,518
  • May 8, 2012 1:37am May 8, 2012 1:37am
Quoting Likerty
How do you like that m5 and m15 price action hm? Piercing every micro level and then coming back again - every new candle engulfs previous one...
That plus high tick volume are signs of a battle. When a winner is declared, I will cheer for him. Till then, I am a spectator.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,519
  • May 8, 2012 1:42am May 8, 2012 1:42am
Quoting AFXFin
Well, BIS is a liquidity provider who officially have a role of providing stabilizing funds to the market. They have no official role of making profit (though they do). Their announcements are quite solid, but from my experience the size matters in these markets.

ADD: Lesson to learn: Do not trust market talk - use the information for your benefit, but do not rely on it.
Yep, just waste your time finding the news, that's how donkeys roller skate. Look your eu chart and tick chart and you will be quicker and more accurate than any donkey that trys to find clues on internet.
  • #29,520
  • May 8, 2012 1:46am May 8, 2012 1:46am
I knew I should have got short at the trend line. It would have been worth risking 5 pips to me. Good thing I'm still half short from 1.302, not the greatest entry but its in the green now.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
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