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AUD/USD

  • #43,981
  • May 7, 2012 7:56pm May 7, 2012 7:56pm
looks like a few people are expecting the expected
  • #43,982
  • May 7, 2012 7:58pm May 7, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting Snarkalarker
Negative 1.38 to be exact.

Ummm.... like I said, this is the first time as long as I have been keeping records that the forecast was a negative number.

Did you misread my statement?
sorry i did.

short at 1.01942 t/p 1.0776
  • #43,983
  • May 7, 2012 8:05pm May 7, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting tigershin
sorry i did.

short at 1.01942 t/p 1.0776
By the way my records go back on this one to November 3, 2010. Admittedly not a great data base but not a bad one either.

So here we have a projected number that is a negative. The first negative in a fairly long spell. Judging by past experience, if the reverse holds true, a positive number could make this pair move very quickly and very handsomely.

Personally, I would advise not to enter a position until the data becomes public.

But to each there own.
  • #43,984
  • May 7, 2012 8:07pm May 7, 2012 8:07pm
closed my short waiting for the trade number, I was too chicken to leave it open but hey better safe then sorry best of luck to you guys I might leave a pending order for any case...
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #43,985
  • May 7, 2012 8:32pm May 7, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting tigershin
I'm forecasting the trade balance to be around 0.66B, how much movement would that give? given the forecast is at -1.38B.
I am still curious. Where did you get the 0.66 B number from?

It was not even close.
  • #43,986
  • May 7, 2012 8:32pm May 7, 2012 8:32pm
wow... should be testing 1.01?
  • #43,987
  • May 7, 2012 8:33pm May 7, 2012 8:33pm
Short 1.0180, sl 1.0220, Tp 1.0000
Expect the unexpected.
  • #43,988
  • May 7, 2012 8:37pm May 7, 2012 8:37pm
why such a small impact on such a negative number?
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #43,989
  • May 7, 2012 8:39pm May 7, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting STIprdr
why such a small impact on such a negative number?
yesterday news also had slow impact (but still moved accordingly). my TP 1.0157
  • #43,990
  • May 7, 2012 8:39pm May 7, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting STIprdr
why such a small impact on such a negative number?
Aussie trade balance worse than forecasted,
but imports +5% outpaced exports +2%,
so there's some silver lining to deeper deficit.
Expect the unexpected.
  • #43,991
  • May 7, 2012 8:41pm May 7, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting Snarkalarker
I am still curious. Where did you get the 0.66 B number from?

It was not even close.
yea way off embarrassing... need to go through it.
  • #43,992
  • May 7, 2012 8:44pm May 7, 2012 8:44pm
1.0100 possible safest tp?
  • #43,993
  • May 7, 2012 8:44pm May 7, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting STIprdr
why such a small impact on such a negative number?
Not much of a deviation from the forecaster number which was also negative.

From my experience we will only see real lasting movement when one (or two)conditions are met:

1. A positive forecast ends up being a negative.

2. The opposite.

Both occurrences are rather rare.
  • #43,994
  • May 7, 2012 9:12pm May 7, 2012 9:12pm
im not convinced, should see what shes got by tonight, im chicken of that unemployment rate, any aussies in here care to tell us how there employment has been going? i heard on the news that they had to get rid of a few jobs?
  • #43,995
  • May 7, 2012 9:19pm May 7, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting Snarkalarker
Not much of a deviation from the forecaster number which was also negative.

From my experience we will only see real lasting movement when one (or two)conditions are met:

1. A positive forecast ends up being a negative.

2. The opposite.

Both occurrences are rather rare.
its going to set it up for London and NY... if it drifts down its still bearish... sell all rallies for quick scalps.
  • #43,996
  • May 7, 2012 9:42pm May 7, 2012 9:42pm
Looks like the sellers can't really push it to me.
  • #43,997
  • May 7, 2012 9:58pm May 7, 2012 9:58pm
Quoting Noobicle
im not convinced, should see what shes got by tonight, im chicken of that unemployment rate, any aussies in here care to tell us how there employment has been going? i heard on the news that they had to get rid of a few jobs?
Manufacturing and tourism sectors are struggling and shedding jobs but the mining sector and surrounding services cannot get enough workers, people are coming from everywhere even from the US, from highly skilled to kitchen hands...
Retail seams to be picking up too lately.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #43,998
  • May 7, 2012 10:19pm May 7, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Short 1.0180, sl 1.0220, Tp 1.0000
Another lot shorted at 1.0175...
Com' on AUD you can go south now
Expect the unexpected.
  • #43,999
  • May 7, 2012 10:37pm May 7, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting stulic
Manufacturing and tourism sectors are struggling and shedding jobs but the mining sector and surrounding services cannot get enough workers, people are coming from everywhere even from the US, from highly skilled to kitchen hands...
Retail seams to be picking up too lately.
thank u very much
  • #44,000
  • May 7, 2012 11:08pm May 7, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting GTRudeBoy84
Looks like the sellers can't really push it to me.
looks like selling to me... buyers can't keep it up drifting down... NZD got hit hardest. Last few weeks these news have gave excuse to sell NZD.
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