LJ Forex Group

Good afternoon LJ,

I've been applying the great stuff from your vids to some charts and I was wondering if my analysis is correct, I'am just a newbie to this S/D stuff, could you please share me your view on the E/A pair, thanx in advance.

So refering to the charts: I've drawn a 4H-Suppy and 4H-Demand, on the 1H-TF we've a intermediate 1H-Demand. Price bounced on a FTB @ 4H-Supply, 1st target would be the 1H-Supply, price bounces there on a FTB, afterwards price revisits that 1H-supply like an ascending triangle pattern, so bullish momentum is building up for a break, before this 1H-demand is broken price spikes below trapping sellers. Next target would be the 4H-Supply, price arrives @ that supply like a consolidation box ie. S and D are in equilibrium, we may conclude that D isn't that much stronger than S and we may expect a break, which price did via a 15m-BUOB.

In the A/C pair we had the opposite situation compared to E/A

a setup on G/J in hindsight, just exercising the great stuff in LJ's vids

Another nice setup in hindsight, FTB to S and D worked out perfectly via a 10m-BUOB and 10m-PB. Second time back to D, price generates a descending triangle suggesting a break of that 1H-Demand.

and finally a nice setup in hindsight on E/G

Great Stuff.

That AJ 10min setup was a perfect setup...it's money in the bank 90% of the time IMO on setups like that.

Remember that trading FTB's is about taking positions at the source / start of the move i.e. no need to wait for BEOB/BUOB/Pin bar confirmation (which is not an efficient way of trading an FTB setup).

The FTB to a supply or demand zone will always represent the highest probability trade if we look for the right characteristics (fresh supply / demand, significant imbalance etc), from thereon I look for clues from price action LEADING INTO the area (compression, supply/demand consumption) and/or price action AT the area (chart patterns / bar patterns) to determine what price is likely to do.

Will take a closer look later as just stopping in briefly, but the below would be some initial thoughts...

First of all, thank you very much for taking the effort for reading my posts, I really appreciate that.

You´re wright about these fresh levels, sometimes I´am having trouble in picking these fresh levels. What I usually do is picking those levels where price shoots away from ie. those where the imbalance is the most obvious without looking further to the left, I gota work on this part. In some of his vids Seiden mentions S/D levels on top of each other, but isn´t that the result of price bouncing hard from a fresh S/D level on a FTB and thereby creating another S/D level.

About FTB trade, as you already mentioned it´s about the way price approaches a fresh S/D level on a FTB. Say for example, price approaches fresh demand with a big high momentum bearish bar or with lots of bars with reasonable lower wicks (demand consumption instead of supply conumption) would then still be comfortable in fading that demand.

May the force be with you,

I've redrawn S and D as you suggested, except for the top supply I do see the difference, maybe the gap on 1 april was still in play. That other supply level became a beautifull PPZ afterwards. When price visited this supply for the second time, price approached this supply in a flagging fashion (thereby consuming supply) as part of a flag pattern with its pole at the lower demand zone. I remember from your vids where a price flagged into demand consuming supply for price to bounce hard from demand, here price flagged into supply and consuming supply for price to break hard through supply zone.

When proper applied, this S/D technique with the understanding of price structure is so powerfull in predicting the way price is going to move, it's just great !

if i didn't follow the news i would have blindly trade this level.

was aware of France & the Greece elections which could have printed some huge gaps and
it did!!

Took 2 longs at 0.7923 and closed 1/2 at 0.7936.

Closed the rest of it at 0.7950. (+40 pips in total)

Shorted AN @ 1.2815. SL = 1.2840, TP1 = 1.2780, TP2 = 1.2740


AUD/NZD 1H Chart

Placed a pending buy at 79.90 for UJ with a tight stop. I think the ideal place for entry was the point A on the 5M chart, but I missed it....

I closed one lot at BE and changed SL from 1.2840 to 1.2850 for a possible QM. I will re-enter at the QM level.

AUD/NZD 1H Chart

Price is now stalling near my entry...

USD/JPY 15M Chart

Public holiday in UK yesterday so no trading for me.

Here is an example from yesterday of combining knowledge of supply/demand zones to pinpoint the likely reaction point on the retrace to a daily SR flip on AU.

You can clearly see the SR zone and thus the recent breakout...so now I'm looking to pinpoint where price should react on a retrace back to test this zone as resistance.

This is where zooming in can at times provide us with a lot of information as to where the supply zone is situated and the decision was made for the breakout to occur.

Price is now 70ish pips lower...all from a supply zone that was identified within a 5 pip range.

Had a few questions about a UCAD false breakout setup yesterday. For me this was an easy pass, there are two main reasons why this is a pass for me (which I won't go into detail here).

But it highlights an important point about false breakout trading...if price forms a true false break (in that I mean the order-flow dynamics that are occurring within a false breakout - those that have watched my webinar will understand this) then price should not come back and form a new high (in this case) - it's why on setups I trade I can put my SL at the high of the false breakout bar (or at times even tighter) - because I've identified setups whereby the order-flow dynamics behind a false breakout are present and thus price won't make a new high (or come close to making a new high). If you understand the order-flow that occurs behind a false breakout setup you'll understand it's illogical that price should make a new high before falling...

So why then did UCAD fall from where it did...

1. Chart 1 shows the false break of the previous swing high as well as price consolidating for 8-9 hours afterwards and making a new high (twice) in the process - this is exactly the opposite of how we expect price to move in a true false breakout setup.

2. Chart 2 shows why the previous swing high turned where it did - it was an FTB to a support turned resistance zone.

3. The next chart shows the 5min TF and we can see where a) demand was consumed at the lower SR level in the previous chart and b) where supply came in on the small rejection of that lower demand zone i.e. the turning point where the decision was made for price to move lower and break through that support zone.

4. Extrapolating that higher SD zone across to yesterdays action we can see that the 2x 1HR bar highs that formed after the false break hit this supply zone and this is where price turned down i.e. the reason why price fell was due to the FTB back to this untested supply zone and NOT because of the false break of the 1HR swing - the price action that resulted following the false break tells us this was not the reason (as explained above).

5. Lastly...zooming back out to the 1HR TF we can see where price turned and the SD that we had zoomed into to pinpoint on the 5min TF.

Stopped out @ BE while on duty....

If I'd have been around I would have sold this pair on the FTB to the demand turned supply zone at a 1HR SR zone.