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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #29,221
  • May 6, 2012 10:26pm May 6, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
Suckered in like flies? I think it would takes some crazy news. If you believe we are breaking the 1.295 area and going lower, and you made some profit off the move last week, why not scale back in at least half way? then if the prices drops to where you took profit on your main position, add the other half back. if the price move higher against your first half you scale back, you have the half of position to pick a key spot to get short again.

You see that nasty weekly bar from last summer? It's possible we see something like that again this...
If you are making 20 to 40 happy pips in the movement ... then it is fine. I only support moves and set ups which has potential to go ahead atleast 100 pips with no back gear of 50 pips.
  • #29,222
  • May 6, 2012 10:30pm May 6, 2012 10:30pm
well it is your main position right? so if this is the bottom, why arent you out yet? im about 75% less short than I was last week, waiting for a better entry. but still scaled back in 25%, 20 pips higher.

If you look at the daily chart, it looks like we are about to fall off a cliff. I dont think we will see a bounce like we did at 1.30 weeks ago
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,223
  • May 6, 2012 10:31pm May 6, 2012 10:31pm
Gidday

I am doing small trades,it would make sense for the bean counters to be figuring out how much they need to dump into the market to take out all the shorts.On friday it was going up to 13280 ish,who would have thought this could happen on monday.
Well it has happened so I need to trade out off a bulls up decision in carrying longs over,I should have hedged the market.
At least I could have enjoyed some longs on the way up
Still trying to make money online has always had few bumps in the road that we have to work around.
  • #29,224
  • May 6, 2012 10:36pm May 6, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
well it is your main position right? so if this is the bottom, why arent you out yet? im about 75% less short than I was last week, waiting for a better entry. but still scaled back in 25%, 20 pips higher.

If you look at the daily chart, it looks like we are about to fall off a cliff. I dont think we will see a bounce like we did at 1.30 weeks ago
As I said it is about set up. If you see it as a bottom with your set up and go for long for 10 pips it is ok to me. I see set up of 100 pips and more, so the bottom you see, I see it as light demand zone, where price will retrace up for further mass sale.
  • #29,225
  • Edited 10:57pm May 6, 2012 10:42pm | Edited 10:57pm
Quoting rekon67
As I said it is about set up. If you see it as a bottom with your set up and go for long for 10 pips it is ok to me. I see set up of 100 pips and more, so the bottom you see, I see it as light demand zone, where price will retrace up for further mass sale.
Who said I see a bottom? I mean as in the end of the euro down move where it takes at least a 100 pip move up.

Its only a short term bottom, I'll take all the pips I can get 20 long , and back in 20 short higher than TP = 40

I just try to play it well, but I will admit it has cost me pips before too.

The only reasons I closed shorts is decent support at these levels, but mostly because this market is way too exhausted to not consolidate at least.

Edit: Also, PipTrapper, why are you still holding your position from 1.46? Surely you could have got back in at least 100 pips better than TP, there have been many corrections since last summer. You also could lever more with your new capital. Of course you know all this, so Im just wondering why is all.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,226
  • May 6, 2012 11:07pm May 6, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
Who said I see a bottom? I mean as in the end of the euro down move where it takes at least a 100 pip move up.

Its only a short term bottom, I'll take all the pips I can get 20 long , and back in 20 short higher than TP = 40

I just try to play it well, but I will admit it has cost me pips before too.

The only reasons I closed shorts is decent support at these levels, but mostly because this market is way too exhausted to not consolidate at least.

[b]Edit: Also, PipTrapper, why are you still holding your position from 1.46? Surely...
Nothing is wrong with your game plan brother, it is all about different perspective.

I was positioning long last month since daily was supporting me and monthly candle was above Mean (according to my technical set). But this month a clear bearish so I will only be looking for short positions.

  • #29,227
  • May 6, 2012 11:22pm May 6, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting rekon67
Nothing is wrong with your game plan brother, it is all about different perspective.

I was positioning long last month since daily was supporting me and monthly candle was above Mean (according to my technical set). But this month a clear bearish so I will only be looking for short positions.

Agreed. I will only be looking for shorts too, and maybe the occasional long when I know the market is exhausted, but only for a scalp
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #29,228
  • Edited May 7, 2012 12:10am May 6, 2012 11:40pm | Edited May 7, 2012 12:10am
Quoting forexboom
My trade, tp 1.3180

You know, I don't know for whom your call was? Care to post a chart with your AB=CD?
  • #29,229
  • May 7, 2012 12:45am May 7, 2012 12:45am
Quoting BFSGcapital
PipTrapper, why are you still holding your position from 1.46? Surely you could have got back in at least 100 pips better than TP, there have been many corrections since last summer. You also could lever more with your new capital. Of course you know all this, so Im just wondering why is all.
Good morning BFSG. What you probably don't know (unless you've read all my posts since September 2011) is that I have re-entered and closed many times since I opened that 1.46xx position. I always leave a runner or two especially when my broker pays me a swap on them or if the market moves in my favor so quikly that even a swap charge seems minuscule. For me it is about a diversified positioning system. I have long term targets, medium term targets and short term targets. I play them all.
Currently my long running sell positions are 1.4647 and 1.3410 Everything else along the way has been booked as profit and I will continue to do so with every wave. However, I don't scalp. Too lazy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,230
  • May 7, 2012 12:46am May 7, 2012 12:46am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday

I am doing small trades,it would make sense for the bean counters to be figuring out how much they need to dump into the market to take out all the shorts.On friday it was going up to 13280 ish,who would have thought this could happen on monday.
Well it has happened so I need to trade out off a bulls up decision in carrying longs over,I should have hedged the market.
At least I could have enjoyed some longs on the way up
Still trying to make money online has always had few bumps in the road that we have to work around.
From the Page 1: http://www.fxtimes.com/education/mar...t-the-markets/
  • #29,231
  • May 7, 2012 12:57am May 7, 2012 12:57am
Quoting rekon67
From the Page 1: http://www.fxtimes.com/education/mar...t-the-markets/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,232
  • May 7, 2012 1:06am May 7, 2012 1:06am
It is exhausted, but can it push for the whole gap? Who knows..LOL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: genuinelyFX_2012.05.07_eurusd_hourly.jpg Size: 154 KB
charting the euro...
  • #29,233
  • May 7, 2012 1:08am May 7, 2012 1:08am
Yep, that's why I never leave any big trades open during the weekend.
  • #29,234
  • May 7, 2012 1:13am May 7, 2012 1:13am
Quoting shhhhh
It is exhausted, but can it push for the whole gap? Who knows..LOL

Attachment
It is rational to assume a retest of the 1.3050 to 1.3080 area, but who says the market is rational?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 58 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,235
  • May 7, 2012 1:17am May 7, 2012 1:17am
DAX opens at channel support. One would expect some sort of bounce from here. With thin markets ahead till NY open, it's hard to call.

ADD: Notice the H/S formation?

DAX30 H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax30-h4.gif Size: 28 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,236
  • May 7, 2012 1:55am May 7, 2012 1:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is rational to assume a retest of the 1.3050 to 1.3080 area, but who says the market is rational?

Attachment
Th thing is, the faster it fills the gap, the sooner can go undisturbed on it's way. But we will see...

From the weekly timeframe, this seems appropriate:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: genuinelyFX_2012.05.07_eurusd_weekly[2].jpg Size: 122 KB
charting the euro...
  • #29,237
  • May 7, 2012 1:58am May 7, 2012 1:58am
Quoting shhhhh
Th thing is, the faster it fills the gap, the sooner can go undisturbed on it's way. But we will see...

From the weekly timeframe, this seems appropriate:

Attachment
Agreed
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,238
  • May 7, 2012 2:05am May 7, 2012 2:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bonds.gif Size: 35 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stocks.gif Size: 50 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #29,239
  • May 7, 2012 2:09am May 7, 2012 2:09am
Haven't looked at bond yields for analysis before, I assume what I'm seeing is strengthening of the currency for the countries in green?

lol@ Greece bond yield
  • #29,240
  • May 7, 2012 2:15am May 7, 2012 2:15am
Quoting neuron
Haven't looked at bond yields for analysis before, I assume what I'm seeing is strengthening of the currency for the countries in green?

lol@ Greece bond yield
Not necessarily the currencies and all depends which column you are looking at.
Also you have to make a distinction between quality and junk.

During Risk-Off events, safe havens such as US, Germany and Japan experience a drop in yield and the EZ periphery and emerging markets experience a rise in yield.

However, the purpose behind the monitoring for me is to gauge Spain, Italy and France. A rise in yields in these bonds indicates lowered confidence and has a negative impact on the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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