EurAnalysis

London is close but if I am not wrong Europe is open...So its should not be so thin...

The majority of volume comes from the UK. It is the financial hub of Europe... Just like NY and Chicago in the US

Also keep in mind that this is a panic sell-off. Once NY opens we may see a rebound to close the gap.

OK...Thanks

My technical analyze:

Triangle completed, the e wave could spike the triangle. The market reach 1.295, 0,618 fib from 1.260 to 1.348.

Also the dollar reaches the resistance, and the SPX500 completed my flat correction around 1350. So my targets are 1.348, break this, 1.381.

I hope dont crash myself!

By the way, UJ double bottom and GJ touch my support... For me RISK ON!!!

I would have to disagree with you on this one Luis. Sorry but I just don't see it happening that way. I see 1.28 as more possible than 1.38

Also USD Index has broken resistance (falling trend line)

Hey I could be wrong but the way things are, the odds are more downside moves.

DX D1


Also I see SP500 target at 1320/25 area

SP500 D1

My UJ target is 78.8

GJ I don't trade so I have no comment.

U/J D1

I am agree with 1.28 and 1320 areas, but I got my reason to keep my eyes open in this levels as I showed

Well, I'm off to bed. I have seen enough now

I'll be back...

http://www.savagechickens.com/images/chickent4.jpg

Hi there,

I hope I am able to ask this question in this thread. If the EUR/USD falls today, how would that affect the German Market or the DAX. Will the lower EUR be beneficial to the german companies that could lead to the higher close for the DAX?

Cheers,

mliew

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

Timeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://www.finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://www.finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?...19336370345000

http://www.finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-...05981.html?l=1

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell after Greek voters trounced ruling parties in elections on Sunday, a result that put the country's future in the euro zone at risk, and as Socialist candidate Francois Hollande won the French presidency.

S&P 500 futures were down 12.3 points at 1,350.20 at 7:35 p.m. EDT (2335 GMT), suggesting a fall of about 1 percent when the U.S. stock market opens on Monday.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 176 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 28 points.

Results from Greece, with over 61 percent of the vote counted, showed the only two major parties supporting a European Union-International Monetary Fund program that keeps Greece from bankruptcy would struggle to form a lasting coalition.

In France, Hollande, shortly after winning the presidential election on Sunday against conservative incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, promised to start a pushback against German-led austerity policies.

David Kotok, president of Cumberland Advisors, an investment firm based in Sarasota, Florida, said despite the initial negative reaction of investors to the election results, the chances of more active monetary policy among leading advanced economies seemed to be rising, which would provide relief.

"Once markets realize that the political winds are now accelerating toward more easing by the G4, markets will resume an upward bias," Kotok said in an emailed note on Sunday.

(Editing by William Schomberg, Gary Crosse)

Kno's Comments:

I just happen to be on the mailing list of Cumberland Advisors so here is the email for your reading pleasure.

My Initial Take on Europe
May 6, 2012

Bullets.

1. Austerity loses all the way around. French, German and Greek elections pile on other European changes. Clearly, Europe’s elected politicians fail when they try to impose austerity by cutting deficits or lessening social payments.

2. Existing low deficit countries will become even stronger. They benefit from a weaker euro, which is certainly going to occur. Germany is the largest beneficiary but others, like Finland, are also rewarded for their “good behavior.” Remember that the euro is comprised of 17 countries and not all of them are weak, profligate spending regimes. That composition is why the euro will not weaken in a free fall. The value of the currency is the value of a composite with some strength and some weakness that is balanced, weighted and then averaged.

3. With austerity diminished there will be more pressure for the European Central Bank (ECB) to print. The ECB is a composite of weights of the 17 members. Political momentum moves toward more monetary ease. We expect another LTRO or some other form of balance sheet expansion before the end of this year.

4. More pressure will be placed on the other members of the G4 central bank coalition. Japan’s political winds blow in favor of more quantitative easing. This latest 10 trillion yen is not the last round. We expect Japan to increase its central bank balance sheet again before the end of the year.

5. No one knows what will happen next in the United Kingdom. They have been very aggressive in enlarging their central bank balance sheet. For the G4 balance sheets, including the UK expansion, see www.cumber.com. The slides are at the bottom of the home page.

6. Lastly, in the G4 we have the Federal Reserve standing pat for the moment. They do not want to do any more QE if they can avoid it. They will play out the announced operation twist, then wait, and watch. However, pressures on the dollar to strengthen and pressures on the Fed from slower labor market improvement will intensify. The Fed will face them in the midst of an election year. The Fed would like to avoid becoming even more politicized than it presently is but the Fed may not be able to dodge this bullet. Now the best guess is that the Fed will make no policy change after June 30. That is only a guess. For sure, the troika of Bernanke, Yellen and Dudley has enough votes to set the policy on the FOMC.

7. Market’s initial reaction is negative to the news in Europe. This is no surprise although the news itself was anticipated. Once markets realize that the political winds are now accelerating toward more easing by the G4, markets will resume an upward bias. We expect the higher-grade sovereign debt to continue to trade at very low interest rates and we expect credit spreads of weaker sovereigns to widen until the ECB enters the market or discusses that it may do so.

8. Monetary policy easing is now the only game in town. Central bankers may not like it but they have no choice about it. We remain fully invested in ETF portfolios and we continue to select spread product over treasury bonds and notes and hedged structures in bond accounts where it fits an investor’s investment objective.


This ain’t over. Yogi Berra is right.


David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

Resources:
To sign-up for Market Commentaries from Cumberland Advisors: http://www.cumber.com/signup.aspx

http://ca.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo

The other big data focus was the usual trail of 'clues' leading into the US employment report on Friday. Again the data might be best described as 'mixed', though while Friday's data ultimately missed the +170k consensus at +115k (albeit +168k with revisions) a soft ADP report earlier in the week had already removed much of any sting, especially as falling participation saw the unemployment rate down to 8.1%).


http://ca.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo

Japan was off for most of the week, USD/JPY spending most of it above rather than below 80.00 if not by very much either way. The whisper was always that the MoF was watching, some even convinced that the authorities were buying some via the back door.


http://ca.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo


http://ca.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo http://ca.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo

Please find below, your Free FXMarketAlerts Weekly Strategy.

Great stuff!

Closed shorts at 1.2964 and went long

I love coming back to a 100 pip weekend gap down after a Sunday morning tee time

gotta love when the market moves this fast during aussie/asia hours

Second Rescue Package

New Democracy and Pasok, which have alternated in power since 1974, were partners in the outgoing caretaker government of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, which secured a second rescue package earlier this year, saving Greece from financial collapse.

Under the terms of that 130 billion-euro package, which was accompanied by the biggest debt restructuring ever, international lenders expect to hear in June how Greece will achieve 11.6 billion euros of savings for 2013 and 2014.

“Political instability is at the gates for Greece,” said Farmakis. “Time is running out with the upcoming troika visit scheduled for late May or early June and a new round of austerity that needs to be decided by the end of June. Clearly the risk for a euro exit has increased markedly.”

The vote projection today said at least seven and as many as 10 parties may enter Parliament, underscoring fatigue over austerity and frustration with the politicians responsible for implementing it. Unemployment is almost 22 percent and for those under the age of 24 it’s almost 51 percent.

A total of 9.85 million Greeks, including 360,000 new voters, were eligible to cast ballots today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ro-future.html


Greek Election Gridlock Raises Risk for Bailout, Euro Future


By Maria Petrakis and Natalie Weeks - May 6, 2012 7:18 PM ET


Greece’s political leaders struggled to find the support needed to form a coalition government after voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, calling into question the country’s ability to impose the measures needed to guarantee its future in the euro.


New Democracy won 20 percent of the total vote with more than 50 percent of the ballots from yesterday’s elections counted at 12:30 a.m., according to the Interior Ministry website. Socialist Pasok, which partnered with New Democracy in securing a second rescue package for the country, trailed in third place with 42 seats. Official projections predicted the two would fall one short of the 151 seats needed to win a majority.

Enlarge image http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iEdKuwXXxsJQ.jpg Greek Election Surprise Rejects ‘Barbarism’ of Bailout Austerity

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/i6KVEDcM23Qw.jpg

The head of Greece's Syriza party, the second-largest after the May 6, 2012 election, Alexis Tsipras (C), celebrates with supporters in the center of Athens on May 6. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/GettyImages



The head of Greece's Syriza party, the second-largest after the May 6, 2012 election, Alexis Tsipras (C), celebrates with supporters in the center of Athens on May 6. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/GettyImages



Syriza, a coalition of left parties which has vowed to cancel the bailout terms, got 16.1 percent and has 49 seats as the second-biggest party, boosting its showing from the 2009 election nearly four-fold. The new Greek parliament will have three new anti-bailout parties represented.

“The chance of a pro-EU bailout coalition of New Democracy and Pasok is on a knife-edge,” Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc, said in an e-mail. “The scale of opposition is such that even if a pro-bailout coalition can be formed it will be tough for the new government to push ahead with further austerity, risking a halt to EU bailout finance. This test could come within weeks.”

EU Voter Anger

As voters across Europe punish governments for failing to control a debt crisis triggered by Greece, New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said he’d try to put together a government of “national salvation” that will keep the country in the euro area, a plan echoed by Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos.

“I asked for a strong mandate,” Samaras said in statements in Athens yesterday. “The people decided otherwise.”

damn signed into my other account, didnt notice that. ive been drinking just a little bit, and i never drink

this is BFSG

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-munger-games/87811/

One would think that a man as wealthy, as smart, and as old as Charles Munger would have known better than to suggest that people who buy gold are uncivilized. “Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you’re a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939,” Mr. Munger told Rebecca Quick of CNBC, “but I think civilized people don’t buy gold, they invest in productive businesses.” The fact is that people who bought gold a decade ago were far better positioned than those who put their money in Mr. Munger’s company, Berkshire Hathaway. For the value of a share of Berkshire Hathaway has collapsed over the past decade to barely more than 74 ounces of gold from the 238 ounces it was worth a decade ago.

Ms. Quick had beckoned Mr. Munger into this morass by telling him he was one of the greatest investors of all time and asking him whether there is anything happening that seems “like déjà vu.” Mr. Munger replied that the panic that “came as a predecessor of the Great Recession had common themes that are always the same — the crazy greed, the crazy leverage, the crazy delusions, and I think we were very lucky that the outcome wasn’t worse. . . . Of course, we knew it was coming, and we always used to say, well, what do you think about the crazy consumer credit or the crazy this or the crazy that, well, what’s going to happen. I would always say, it’s going to have a very bad result, but I can’t tell you when.”

Where the uncivilized boors who adjusted early to this crazy period gained the judgment to buy gold is a mystery Mr. Munger didn’t pursue, though they better protected their investors than Mr. Munger and his partner, Warren Buffett, did. Mr. Munger dodged Ms. Quick’s query about the current campaign among central bankers in respect of easy money. “They went to the whip,” Mr. Munger mused. “They don’t have an unlimited number of weapons. We’d be in way worse shape if both political parties hadn’t backed huge central bank intervention. The big mistake was made by allowing the boom to go so crazy, so much evil and folly to run so rampant.”

Mr. Munger credits Alan Greenspan for having recognized that he was wrong. “He’s the only one that’s done that,” Mr. Munger said. “Everyone else has managed to look at this enormous [word unclear] and leave the previous ideas intact. . . .” He then began talking about economic virtue and sin. “What happens is that in an economy with a certain among of basic virtue, like a bunch of Germans or Japanese or something, can resort to a lot of extreme Keynesian intervention and help things. But if your whole cultural system disintegrates — say the way it did in Greece where everyone was living with no work and a lot of make believe and fraud and what have you — then the Keynesian stuff won’t work.”

Ms. Quick said she took it that Mr. Munger was “not in Paul Krugman’s camp.” Mr. Munger allowed that Professor Krugman “is one of the smartest and most articulate people we have, and he is very often right.” But not before remarking that Mr. Krugman “doesn’t sufficiently understand the kind of sin that the Democrats like. You know, the crooked plaintiffs lawyers. That stuff affects the body politic, and affects how well the economic principles work.” Then he moved on to talking about how Chairman Greenspan was “”blind not to step on the boom.” The problem, he said, was that Mr. Greenspan “really overdosed on Ayn Rand.”

Hmmm. Was it Ayn Rand on which Mr. Greenspan overdosed? In 1966, the future Fed chairman wrote for her newsletter an essay called “Gold and Economic Freedom.” It begins with the sentence “An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense — perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire — that gold and economic freedom are inseparable. . .” The essay ends with the assertion that “n the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation” and that “[t]he financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.”

“This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold,” Mr. Greenspan warned. “Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.” So maybe it was something else on which Mr. Greenspan was over-dosing when he arrived at the Fed. And maybe the reason that Berkshire Hathaway shares have collapsed in value is that neither he nor Mr. Munger were paying attention to the civilizing effect of gold and economic freedom.

Kno's Comments: GATA Reaction...

Gold is limited government, which is more 'civilized' than the alternative

http://www.gata.org/themes/gata/imag...ting_small.gifSubmitted by cpowell on 08:08AM ET Sunday, May 6, 2012. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:19a ET Sunday, May 6, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

"Civilized people don't buy gold," Berkshire Hathaway's Charles Munger told CNBC the other day. Echoing his partner, Warren Buffett, Munger said civilized people instead "invest in productive businesses," adding, "Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939." (See http://www.gata.org/node/11324.)

As indignant as such a comment may make certain gold investors, most are probably accustomed to such disparagement by the financial establishment, and greater indignation should be directed toward the mainstream financial news media for not seeking out any rebuttal, even if the rebuttal is obvious enough.

Perhaps first is that gold as money is the primary mechanism of enforcing limited government, and limited government is the first characteristic of civilized government. The distance between gold as money and unlimited fiat money is the distance between limited government and unlimited government, between democracy and totalitarianism.

[i]The trend toward unlimited government lately has become overwhelming, from the stupid imperial wars being waged by the United States every few years to the comprehensive surveillance undertaken under the "Patriot Act" to the "financial repression" that even a recent member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors complained about a few months ago (http://www.gata.org/node/10839). This prompts our friend Bill A. to chide Munger that the United States in 2012 is in danger of becoming like Vienna in 1939, insofar as anyone now is subject to the abuse heaped on Jews by the Nazis.

Maybe it's not quite that bad yet, but then the capacity for such abuse is the sort of thing gold as money aims to prevent. And of course gold was the first thing the Nazi occupation seized from both conquered governments and individuals, as gold was, as it remains, a protector of individual liberty as well as a power that competes with government's power.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.