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Symphonie Trader System

  • #12,181
  • May 4, 2012 4:29pm May 4, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting Jane_peters
Absolutely

What is absolutely???
  • #12,182
  • May 4, 2012 4:51pm May 4, 2012 4:51pm
Do the Norwegians know something the market refuses to see???



Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Purges All Insolvent Eurozone Debt Holdings, US Hedge Funds Buying

By Tyler Durden
Created 05/04/2012


Over the years, our friends at the Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund have gone from jeered to cheered. To wit from March 30: "Remember this from September 2010 [17]? "Norway, which has amassed the worlds second-biggest sovereign wealth fund, says Greece wont default on its debts. The point is, do you expect these guys to default? said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, in an interview. Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default. Norway says its long-term perspective will protect it from losses. One could say we are investing for infinity."... Uhm, Big Oops. Needless to say, this stupidity was roundly mocked by Zero Hedge at the time [18]. Yet we can only applaud the fact that unlike other European investors (read primarily Italian banks) which are merely sinking ever deeper into the quicksand by dodecatupling down on pyramid scheme assets, the Norwegian SWF finally "plans to sharply reduce its European exposure while raising investments in emerging markets and Asia-Pacific, the finance ministry said on Friday." While we ridiculed their stupidity in 2010, we applaud Norway's prudence in this case, as unlike other insolvent European entities, the crude-rich country is not falling for the latest round of central planning bullshit, and is finally acting as a fiduciary agent. "We're reducing our European exposure because we see that economic development in the global economy is changing and this should also be reflected in our investment strategy," Johnsen said. "Most likely we'll have to sell some assets in Europe." Remember: in game theory he who defects first, defects best. We expect to see many more funds openly declaring they will commence dumping European assets, all of which are buoyed 100% artificially by the ECB, and US taxpayers, shortly."
One month later the purge is over: "Norways sovereign wealth fund sold all its Irish and Portuguese government bonds after rejecting the Greek debt swap and warned that Europe faces considerable challenges." Wait, what's that? The Eurozone's political strongarming (think Steve Rattner and GM) was unable to force the world's most powerful sovereign wealth fund into agreeing to what was essentially extortion when bank after bank noted how delighted they are to be bent over and take an 80% writedown on their Greek holdings. Stunning. But at least we now know who will be suing Greece shortly in an attempt to recoup par value of their strong law bonds: grab the popcorn - Norway vs Greece will be quite a spectacle. As for their dump of Irish and Portuguese bonds, no surprise there: fool me once (in perpetuity) shame on me, fool me twice, shame on Dan Loeb... who was buying everything Norway was selling [19]. We wonder who ends up right.
More [20]:

The $610 billion Government Pension Fund Global returned 7.1 percent, or 234 billion kroner ($41 billion), as measured by a basket of currencies, in the first quarter, the Oslo-based investor said today. Its equity holdings gained 11 percent while its fixed-income investments rose 1.6 percent.

The fund, which voted against Greeces debt swap this year because it disagreed with being subordinated to the European Central Bank, also said it reduced debt holdings in Italy and Spain amid a broader strategy to cut investments in Europe. The fund added government bonds from emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and India.

Predictability is important for a long-term investor and the euro-area faces considerable structural and monetary challenges, Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, said in a statement.

Stocks jumped globally in the quarter after the European Central Bank stepped in with more than $1 trillion in three-year loans to the regions banks. The rally was tempered toward the end after Spain announced in March it would miss a deficit target and as austerity measures dragged euro-region economies into a recession and boosted unemployment to a 15-year high.

Wait, so precisely the two things we noted in our Subordination 101 post [21]: namely priming subordination nd lack of visibility in a world in which any investor can be crammed down at any moment, are being amplified by the world's biggest sov wealth fund? Good to know. Sadly, to everyone else who has been buying worthless bonds in an ECB-subsidized, furious and futile attempt to dodecatuple down on the worst of the worst in European paper we have one message: enjoy your transitory gains why you can. With SPIs coming to all the other PIIS countries shortly, those who bought first (in 2012) will promptly be last.
  • #12,183
  • Edited 7:08pm May 4, 2012 6:13pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting mybzi
Sorry camvcvoo, I have a question regarding difference between "see" and "think". Although it's easy to look up and tell the difference in a dictionary, we all know they have specific meanings in trading context

If a trader just trade as what he "See", meaning he trades w/o any individual judgement or complex analysis or over-analysis, he just strictly follows signals of a system, I think such trading style is a genuine mechanical style. While "think" means even system shows a signal to a trader, he still needs to judge whether it's right...
I think that you're both correct actually. If you were to follow this system as strictly mechanical, I imagine that in the long term you would show a profit. If you trade fundamentals only, you would show a profit in the long term. Same for trading technical analysis only. I don't there is any argument about that.

The real power shows itself when a combination of the above is employed. The system is great.....throw in a little technical analysis to keep you from entering at the wrong place like (say) a pivot, known s/r area, fib etc etc.....throw in a little fundamental analysis to keep you from entering at the wrong time like (say) right before NFP....and.....with practice....you'll get to be a good trader.

Of course that approach isn't following the 'rules' precisely and exactly as specified in post 1, but I'm sure that you, and most people understand the need to be a little flexible and to adapt the guidelines to suit your style.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #12,184
  • Edited 7:55pm May 4, 2012 6:26pm | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting tafadzwa02
I have seen a few people here talking about spoon feeding others , you can only spoon feed if you have something to spoon feed with.Most of these guys are just novices thinking that if they defend a system the thread starter will give them some secret tip and they will be laughing all the way to the bank.Its quite the opposite , even the thread starter himself is struggling , that's why i have seen only a couple of people , excluding the thread starter , posting their accounts for the public.If the system is making money , lets see your...
People don't get banned that easily on this thread because we are quite transparent in the way we behave....so your martyrdom wish is denied.

Now....lets have a look at your post.

So you think that "most of these guy are just novices thinking that if they defend a system the thread starter will give them some secret tip and they will be laughing all the way to the bank."

A couple of questions on that statement.

1. How do you know what "these guys" are thinking??? You read their minds??????

2. How do you know that the thread starter has a secret tip to give?? I thought he gave the tip on Post 1, Page 1

The "endless charts" that are posted, are posted so that we all can help each other to see the technical analysis of various scenarios. After all, that is how we learn. I'm truly sorry that *you* don't want to see "endless charts", but from the feedback received, most people do. So that's most unfortunate for you.

No, I'm not going to post my account details because they are personal and unlike "endless charts" do not help anyone in any way. If people wish to post their account details, that's their business, but it doesn't prove anything. For instance....how will you know if the trades are even taken with this system??? Ever think about that????

You "rest your case"......LOL.......you don't have a "case" to rest!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #12,185
  • May 4, 2012 7:26pm May 4, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting realjumper
People don't get banned that easily on this thread because we are quite transparent in the way we behave....so your martyrdom wish is denied.

.....

You "rest your case"......LOL.......you don't have a "case" to rest!!
Since a few "rogue traders" have expressed their opinion whilst under the influence of the NFP full moon - I thought I would provide my own perspective to help balance the books.

I have shamefully flitted from system to system for over 18 months to my own detriment and have finally concluded that an indicator based system, such as Symphonie, is best for me. It has helped me smooth out subjective decision making (usually adversely influenced in the heat of the moment) which unsurprisingly has resulted in far more predictable positive results.

I have been trading a 60-15 approach, taking positions only during the Euro session if price is moving away from the Daily Pivot and / or any obvious adjacent swing high or low.

(RJ) - I have been trying to use the Stoch for entry but it is typically in overbought or oversold territory already, but I am finding it good in keeping me in the trade longer (i.e. for exits).

I also use Big E's 5 SMA - another mechanism to avoid me getting in against the trend. It is also helpful for discretionary exits (I have been using candle closes on wrong side of SMA with candle colour change) to good effect.

Eval - I took great comfort in the live testing you did (which is rare in FF)and I am experiencing similar results with my back and forward testing. Not as good as you obviously, but consistently profitable, which is a major break through for me.

Thanks again to all those constructive contributors to the thread and have a good weekend.
  • #12,186
  • May 4, 2012 7:48pm May 4, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
IMO, exiting as stochs are curling back from oversold/overbought conditions and PA candle turning opposite color is a great exit strategy. You can still aim for your fib targets on the one hour TF, but use the lower timeframe to scale in and out to pile up pips and prevent PA to reverse on you if you are trading higher TF. You should also monitor how PA is behaving(size of candle, how long the wick is, Is PA creating wicks on both sides, are you near pivot, S/R, ADR?). Those are questions you need to ask yourself.

As far as SL, it's like beating...
Hello FXST, thanks for your comments on my chart. I'm always open to intelligent suggestions. For entries I use Symphonie, PA, Stoch, and PA's proximity to S/R and Pivot areas. If it's close I'll wait to see if it goes thru. Especially if that area has been tested and rejected earlier. I used to use Fib levels. But IMO the S/R and Pivot levels are more reliable. Of course I watch the size of the candles. I was weaned on bar charts so I watch the Open and Close. There are some particular technical formations that will influence my decision. (For example, inside and outside bars at support in a downtrend or at resistance in an uptrend.) I've studied Elliot Wave and Gann theories but I don't use them. (Sorry Eval) For exits I watch all of the above, but Symphonie and the Stoch action have a big influence on my decision. If it looks like the current trend is over I'm gone and the Stoch helps me decide that. Works for me. For SL again I use S/R and Pivot lines or the nearest swing H/L. No hard and fast numbers. Symphonie has been extemely usefull to me, and I thank everyone here for their contributions to this thread. I have no idea why someone would take the time to come on someone's thread and bash it just for shits and giggles. Happens in every thread. Some people just like to start trouble.
  • #12,187
  • May 4, 2012 8:06pm May 4, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting hawaii5000
Since a few "rogue traders" have expressed their opinion whilst under the influence of the NFP full moon - I thought I would provide my own perspective to help balance the books.

I have shamefully flitted from system to system for over 18 months to my own detriment and have finally concluded that an indicator based system, such as Symphonie, is best for me. It has helped me smooth out subjective decision making (usually adversely influenced in the heat of the moment) which unsurprisingly has resulted in far more predictable positive results....
Yes.....There's always people who run down others in life. Mostly is is out of envy or jealousy. Still...never mind.

I too jumped from system to system looking for one that suited me. Many systems here on FF work....Big E's being one of them. Symphonie suits me and it is especially good at giving clear entries with minimal emotion involved. Yep, the 5EMA is great....I loved from the first moment I saw it and wouldn't trade without it.

I have noticed a few people commenting about stoch at entry such as you have just done. I haven't posted any 'entry' charts for a while, perhaps I should do that and possibly clear up an misconceptions about stochastic? It's true that it can keep you in trades very well and if properly used is a valuable tool in the toolbox!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #12,188
  • May 4, 2012 9:01pm May 4, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting mybzi
Sorry camvcvoo, I have a question regarding difference between "see" and "think". Although it's easy to look up and tell the difference in a dictionary, we all know they have specific meanings in trading context

I don't mean to offend, I just want to discuss and make sure I get the correct understanding from this thread. After all I'm just a newbie and still have a lot to learn...

Any thoughts about that are quite welcome
Mybzi,

When Eval started this thread, the trading was mechanical in s sense that you take signal to signal on M5, strictly applying the rules. Due to the change in market behaviour, Eval suggested M5 trading with H1's trend in mind. It is also (higher probability) profitable but less trades and less stress.

First you got know know your major trend, which both Eval n RJ have pointed out the possible reversal of EU to the downside earlier this week. That is what we "think". We then "see" signals from Symphonie to tell us the entry in line with the major trend, H1 and M5. All of us may be wrong but the probability is higher to trade to the downside.

Also, within a major trend, there are retracements, bull or bear squeezes or what ever terms you name it. If H1 (i see it as mini trend) is showing a retracement (i apply the system to H1 for confirmation, in combination with HA candles and TDI), i trade what i "see", not what i "think" (the major trend), with the risks profile that i am comfortable with. I'm not suggesting anyone to do the same but it is my personal way of trading with Symphonie as the core engine.

Even if you just take signals to signals (trade what you see, not what you think) with the rules, you will still be profitable.

Hope i have expressed myself in good manner. Sorry if i have caused confusion to you.

Also, RJ, thanks very much for your reply post before me.

Let's start the down trend ride!

Cheers,
Victor V
福 子 Victor V
  • #12,189
  • May 4, 2012 10:01pm May 4, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting yelena
you seem to be hunting for the "holy grail." it is naive to think that it exists in FX, unless you have a constant leakage in the results of economic news prior to each release.

for 6 months eval showed his acct. that is enough. if symphonie doesnt work for your taste and character, feel free to leave. if you have a question with picture in it then we will answer.

im still a novice, quite frankly, but i learn from other people's mistakes. i found my peace. hope you find yours too.

green pips to you, man! (or woman or half & half, whatever...

I found my Holy Grail. Scalping 5 min with Symphonie M5. : )
Pivot Boss in the making~
  • #12,190
  • May 4, 2012 10:45pm May 4, 2012 10:45pm
Quoting realjumper

.....
I have noticed a few people commenting about stoch at entry such as you have just done. I haven't posted any 'entry' charts for a while, perhaps I should do that and possibly clear up an misconceptions about stochastic? It's true that it can keep you in trades very well and if properly used is a valuable tool in the toolbox!
I would appreciate it. I have been trying to slow my stoch down (22,3,3) on my 15M signal chart - but it is still almost always in the over bought/sold area at entry time which leaves me worried that I am getting in too late. I know the stoch can stay in the <20 or >80 area for 100's of pips - but from an entry condition perspective it is not telling me much. Any help, if you get a chance, would probably help me and others who use it. Thanks
  • #12,191
  • May 5, 2012 1:40am May 5, 2012 1:40am
Quoting tafadzwa02
I have seen a few people here talking about spoon feeding others , you can only spoon feed if you have something to spoon feed with.Most of these guys are just novices thinking that if they defend a system the thread starter will give them some secret tip and they will be laughing all the way to the bank.Its quite the opposite , even the thread starter himself is struggling , that's why i have seen only a couple of people , excluding the thread starter , posting their accounts for the public.If the system is making money , lets see your...
The trade explorer isn't just for looking at how much somebody else has made or lost, its for you yourself to look back at the trades you've actually taken and review whether you should have taken them or not. Going by your trade explorer I would say, either you don't yet understand how symphonie works - rules etc or you are so pushed for time - you only seem to trade for an hour at around frankfurt/london open and then again in the evening when London is closed (neither of which are famous for being the best setups) that you would be hard pressed to have much success with any system unless working on the daily charts.
  • #12,192
  • May 5, 2012 3:10am May 5, 2012 3:10am
Quoting realjumper
I think that you're both correct actually. If you were to follow this system as strictly mechanical, I imagine that in the long term you would show a profit. If you trade fundamentals only, you would show a profit in the long term. Same for trading technical analysis only. I don't there is any argument about that.

The real power shows itself when a combination of the above is employed. The system is great.....throw in a little technical analysis to keep you from entering at the wrong place like (say) a pivot, known s/r area, fib etc etc.....throw...
Thanks RJ, the "real powerful" way you mentioned is what I'm trying to learn and utilize in my trading. Although still a long path to go, I have confidence especially with so many mates and kind-hearted professionals here
  • #12,193
  • May 5, 2012 3:11am May 5, 2012 3:11am
Quoting realjumper
Yes.....There's always people who run down others in life. Mostly is is out of envy or jealousy. Still...never mind.

I too jumped from system to system looking for one that suited me. Many systems here on FF work....Big E's being one of them. Symphonie suits me and it is especially good at giving clear entries with minimal emotion involved. Yep, the 5EMA is great....I loved from the first moment I saw it and wouldn't trade without it.

I have noticed a few people commenting about stoch at entry such as you have just done. I haven't posted...
Yes RJ, that would be quite helpful. I'm reading passage "The stochastic oscillator, a harmonious system of trading" recommended by you, of couse some more synchronic live pictures how you handle it will give us more clarifications and good examples
  • #12,194
  • May 5, 2012 3:23am May 5, 2012 3:23am
Quoting camvcvoo
Mybzi,

When Eval started this thread, the trading was mechanical in s sense that you take signal to signal on M5, strictly applying the rules. Due to the change in market behaviour, Eval suggested M5 trading with H1's trend in mind. It is also (higher probability) profitable but less trades and less stress.

First you got know know your major trend, which both Eval n RJ have pointed out the possible reversal of EU to the downside earlier this week. That is what we "think". We then "see" signals from Symphonie to tell us the entry in line...
Thanks camvcvoo, now the pic is much clearer
Btw, do you mind to share more details how you handle "retracement" with Symphonie? Although I'm stick to principle of "following main trend", I'm still quite curious how people make $ in retracement. IMHO, it sounds like "Pull the chestnut out of fire".I still haven't got enough courage or found out appropriete way to do that
  • #12,195
  • Edited 4:09am May 5, 2012 3:55am | Edited 4:09am
Traders,
lets use this thread for trading. Reading through the many previous posts, I have noticed that there is a "war of words". Certainly there are people that ask questions that should not even be asked here but when we go on the offensive or defensive, we lose focus. I am not an authority to guide the thread but would suggest that we use this thread for trading symphony. Lets joke about symphony, customised it to our style instead of going on the offensive. If you are not here to talk symphony then they are in the wrong thread. "IF U HAVE NOTHING TO SAY HERE THEN DON'T SAY YOUR NOTHING HERE"
I hope this post is taken in good faith and helps us keep on track.
thanks
  • #12,196
  • May 5, 2012 10:54pm May 5, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting mybzi
Thanks camvcvoo, now the pic is much clearer
Btw, do you mind to share more details how you handle "retracement" with Symphonie? Although I'm stick to principle of "following main trend", I'm still quite curious how people make $ in retracement. IMHO, it sounds like "Pull the chestnut out of fire".I still haven't got enough courage or found out appropriete way to do that
To me,

Major trend = D1 & W1

Retracement = H1 & H4

Apply Symphonie M5 to H1 & H4. Trade signals to signals accordingly. If it is against the major trend, trade with a risk profile that you are comfortable with. If not, you need balls of steel.



Victor V
福 子 Victor V
  • #12,197
  • May 6, 2012 7:09am May 6, 2012 7:09am
Hi Everyone and the legend that is Evaluator!

I am planning to start testing the system over the following months as the results shown in this thread have been too good to ignore!

I have read up through the first 60 pages and then skipped through the main points linked too on post one. Which has raised a question.

Suddenly the extreme points that are shown with the spikes with the coloured lines in seemed to have disapeared from everyones charts! Being replaced by the extreme v3 indicator which gives more frequent and completely different signals. I can't for the life of me find a place where Eval said to drop the extreme spikes! So they are still in my chart unless somone can explain to me why they had to go.

Anyway the chart I have posted is pretty much the set up I will use. I will wait for the original system to give a spike then wait for all of the v3.0 indicators, trend, emotion, extreme and sentiment to show that colour.
I will then take the trade! (Unless I get a sell signal where my technical analysis experience will scream buy then I may sit out!)

I have been sucessful in trading this year grabbing a 98% growth to my account this past year using a simple support/resistance turns resitance/support method on 4 hour charts. Which i thought was fantastic but this system has a apparently proven track record to do so much more!

Its time to get on the train!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #12,198
  • May 6, 2012 7:30am May 6, 2012 7:30am
Quoting woolo
Hi Everyone and the legend that is Evaluator!

I am planning to start testing the system over the following months as the results shown in this thread have been too good to ignore!

I have read up through the first 60 pages and then skipped through the main points linked too on post one. Which has raised a question.

Suddenly the extreme points that are shown with the spikes with the coloured lines in seemed to have disapeared from everyones charts! Being replaced by the extreme v3 indicator which gives more frequent and completely different signals....
In this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5523946 (linked to on post 1) is where we dropped the spike. The new matrix (you should use v 3.01) does not give entirely different signals, it tends to give the "repainted" version of the old one, so far better signals without all the repainting problems.
  • #12,199
  • May 6, 2012 7:59am May 6, 2012 7:59am
Quoting ohammond
In this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5523946 (linked to on post 1) is where we dropped the spike. The new matrix (you should use v 3.01) does not give entirely different signals, it tends to give the "repainted" version of the old one, so far better signals without all the repainting problems.

Thanks for the quick reply OHammond,

I see, i read that post before and wasn't quite sure why the change had to be made if the previous system with all the repainting was still that profitable. For the duration of my tests then I will attach the Matrix v3.0.1 indicator and the old system too. (see screenshot)

I am sure during the tests it will become clear how the new idicator is an improvment.

I'll post screenshot here along with the rest of you for trades that I take, win and loose. I'll try to focus on the loosers though for obvious reasons.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #12,200
  • May 6, 2012 8:30am May 6, 2012 8:30am
The main problem with the spike was because of the way the indicator works we were getting different signals even with the same broker, so that caused a lot of confusion, after extensive testing ourselves the TVI2 gives basically the same signals that the spike did after repainting. I posted about that here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post5529564
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