EurAnalysis

i think.. u forgot someone..

I put 500K only at 1.33 and still
i think u know my target.. where

bye

luis .. trying new extacy?

i tot am the most crazy here,but louis...lol

come online bro ... need dirty talk.

Remember, even a super rich girl needs a caring boy-friend / husband.

My deepest apologies DChristi and Miza

Yes I forgot to add you to the list as you both have in fact made significant contributions towards the success of this thread and I appreciate your efforts

Hi

nice to see you completed the "l" in "get a complete euro analysis here"

I was half asleep when I originally made this list and I missed a few people. My apologies to all whom I have missed and I hope I got you all this time.

I want to acknowledge all my international friends and contributors to this thread, without whom I would only be typing to myself. So here we go in alphabetical order...

AaronWard (Aaron) - Canada
AFXFin (Finney) - Finland
BFSGcapital (BFSG) - US
billytt (billy) - UK
BrunargarFx (Brun) - Ireland
BullsVsBears (BvB) - US
Cgb (Cgb) - Canada
CommercialB (CB) - Ireland
dchristi (dchristi) - US
drzakir123 (Doc) - UK
FXMindset (FXM) - Japan
FX Tsunami (Tsunami) - India
Gofer Pips (Gofer) - US
GoldMan (GoldMan) - Estonia
Halifax (Halifax) - Australia
Harpe Eagle (Harpy) - Pakistan
Hunter101 (Hunter) - Hunterville
Islander (Islander) - Spain
Knoholygrail (Kno) - Canada
krunfx (HuHu) - Malaysia
Luis Carlos (Luis) - Ecuador
Lumesh (Lumesh) - Finland?
minortrader (Minor) - Canada
neuron (neuron) - US
nyfx718 (nyfx718) - US
Oceanis (Oceanis) - Slovenia
PipKiller (PK) - US
rekon67 (rekon) - India
RodMca (Rod) - Ireland
samdani786 (samdani) - US
sftyler (tyler) - UK
shhhhh (sh5) - Romania
sisse (sisse) - Tuvalu
smilemiz (Miza) - Singapore
TheSwede (Swede) - Sweden
Thijs (Thijs) - Belgium
Tom_D_Trader (Tom) - Czech Republic
Tsar (Tsar) - Indonesia
Tyoon (Tyoon) - UK

Also special thanks to those who were with me at the very beginning but have since moved on...

Alorente (Alorente) - Spain
Blobik (Blobik) - Poland
bumapatria (Buma) - Indonesia
drtorque (drtorque) - US
foto (foto) - US
Jolly Roger (Jolly) - US
Pegasus54 (Pegasus) - US
Pbh (Pedro) - Peru
redteamgo (redteamgo) - US
spzd (spzd) - US
The Fool (Fool) - US
the redlion (Red) - US

If I've missed someone, my deepest apologies and please make yourself known

To all of you (including the one's I have missed), my deepest heart felt appreciation for helping to make EurAnalysis what it is today. You're the best and I love you all.

I think it was a Freudian slip

haha, I am trying anything, but this was a chart I posted on thursday. So i need to stick on my plan until watch something different

Remember that you need to stay nimble in order to succeed in Forex

support at 1.2990 seems not convincing to me, nfp has broken the spine of eur ... 1.27 is rather ok to me.

same thought.1.32(monthly pivot) looking for short here with 1.30 target.due to euro 2012 i will looking long from 1.30 for 1.36/38 target.

comment are welcome

April Employment

A few hours after the employment numbers are released, I always get a rather thorough analysis from Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood of The Liscio Report ( www.theliscioreport.com). Philippa gave me permission to share this with you just this once. While it may be more detail than you are used to, it will help give you a perspective on how much data is actually tracked. I think Philippa and Doug are some of the best at analyzing employment, and their regular reports are a must-read for me.

They call the "labor department" in every state and track what is going on at a very deep level, and also follow tax receipts and flows. (Funds and managers who need detailed analysis like this can contact them for a look at their recent work and decide if you should subscribe.) And now to this morning's report:

Though it's likely there are lingering weather influences on this month's disappointing employment report, as there will be in coming months, it appears that the trend is also slowing. That conclusion is bolstered by the decline in our withholding survey, which we believe to be less weather-sensitive than the BLS numbers, and weakness in our survey was not limited to states sensitive to this year's unusual weather.

* April's headline gain of 115,000 was the weakest initial print since last October's 80,000 (now revised up to 112,000). It's considerably below the 146,000 average for the second half of 2011, before the acceleration earlier this year. Looking just at the private sector would make those comparisons a little better, but not much. Manufacturing added 16,000, almost all in durables; retail added 29,000, mostly in general merchandise (largely reversing the losses of the previous two months); professional and business services added 62,000, a third of it from temp firms; education and health added 23,000, well below its recent averages (with health care alone adding just 19,000, at the 20th percentile of gains since 1990); leisure and hospitality, 12,000 (more than accounted for by accommodation and food services, up 27,000). Finance was up just 1,000, and mining and logging were unchanged (low natural gas prices seem to have put an end to the fracking boom).

In the loss column: construction, off 2,000, with nonres leading the way down; transportation and warehousing, off 17,000, mostly from ground transportation; information, off 2,000; and government, off 15,000, almost all of it from local government education (where losses have averaged 8,000 a month for the last year). Almost 70% of job gains came from bars and restaurants, temp firms, and retail, which do not seem the strongest foundations for long-term growth.

* March's gain was revised up by 34,000, and February's by 19,000. Revisions have been fairly strongly upward over the last few months, prompting some talk - but they're actually not as great, in percentage terms, as they were in 1993 and 2005, which were at roughly comparable spots in the recovery/expansion. More than a third of the March revision came from retail, and concentrated in general merchandise; those areas seemed strangely weak last month, so the revisions seem to be righting a wrong rather than uncovering hidden strength.

* With the exception of the six-month measure, diffusion indexes all fell. The general pattern was to reverse the acceleration we saw in the indexes in the first months of the year, suggesting that while the job market is still growing, it's lost some breadth along with momentum.

* The household survey was weaker than its establishment counterpart.
Total employment fell by 169,000 - or 495,000 when adjusted to match the payroll concept. (The yearly gain in the adjusted household measure, 1.5%, has nearly come back into line with the payroll gain, 1.4%, after three months of strong outperformance. This is a reminder not to take these departures too seriously, unless they're sustained for more than a few months.) The employment/population ratio fell 0.1 to 58.4%, 1.0 point below where it was when the recession ended, and where it was in September 1983. There was substantial labor force withdrawal in April, with the participation rate falling by 0.2 point, 2.1 points below where it was when the recession ended.

* The longer-term picture of labor force withdrawal is kind of shocking.

Total household employment is down by 4.4 million since the Great Recession began in December 2007, and the number of unemployed is up by 4.9 million. The civilian population is up 9.6 million - but the labor force is up just 447,000. The number classed as not in the labor force is up by 9.2 million - and those not in the labor force and wanting a job is up 1.7 million. In other words, just 5% of the increase in the adult population over the last 4 1/3 years has found its way into employment; the other 95% are not in the labor force.

* The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 point to 8.1%, its lowest level in more than three years. The number of unemployed fell by 173,000 - but the labor force shrank by almost the same amount, 169,000.

Without the labor force shrinkage, the unemployment rate probably would have been unchanged. Within the unemployed, the number of job losers fell - but so did the number of re-entrants and voluntary leavers, suggesting that the increased confidence we saw through those indicators in recent months may be dissipating. With the quit rate down, and the long-term unemployed dropping out of the labor force, the mid-ranges of unemployment duration (from 5-26 weeks) saw an increase, as the extreme short- and long-term durations fell.

* Average hourly earnings for all workers were up just a penny, which rounds to unchanged in percentage terms. Over the year, hourly earnings are up just 1.8%. Since the all-worker only begins in 2006, we have to use the production worker series for longer-term comparisons.

Except for two brief periods in 1986 and 2006, recent annual gains in nominal wages are the lowest since the series began in 1964. [JFM note: this growth in earnings is considerably lower than inflation and given the rise in fuel and other ordinary expenses (like food) the wage earner is getting hammered,]

* The workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours, with an 0.1 hour rise in manufacturing offsetting an 0.1 hour fall in services. Aggregate hours were up just 0.1%. Aggregate payrolls - the product of aggregate hours and average hourly earnings - were up 0.3% for the month, and 4.1% for the year. That yearly gain is the weakest since January 2011.

So, a disappointment, if not a crushing one. But the job market is still in a deep hole. At April's rate of job gains, it would take well over three years to return to December 2007's employment level, without adjusting for population growth; at the average rate of the last six months, it would take about two years. Earnings are weak, and the strongest sectors aren't those of which economic miracles are spun. QE3 looks like more of a possibility than it did a few days ago.
(End of excerpt from The Liscio Report)

Now let's look at a few charts that caught my eye, out of the several hundred we saw (quite the graphic experience) at my conference. This first one is from David Rosenberg, who was in classic form. I get to be with him again Monday morning in Chicago, where we are on a panel together at the International CFA Conference. This puts a 27-year perspective on how poorly wage growth is doing.



http://images.johnmauldin.com/upload.../050512-01.jpg


"We are monitoring the BROAD rise in Youth Unemployment Rates, across the EU (this March, versus March of last year):

--- Bulgaria ... 32.8% ... up from 26.7%
--- Portugal ... 36.1% ... up from 27.6%
--- Denmark ... 15.1% ... up from 13.7%
--- Ireland ... 30.3% ... up from 28.7%
--- Cyprus ... 28.8% ... up from 18.8%
--- Hungary ... 28.8% ... up from 25.4%
--- Netherlands ... 9.3% ... up from 6.9%
--- Poland ... 26.7% ... up from 25.7%
--- Slovenia ... 16.5% ... up from 16.3%
"The Summer of 2012 could easily become the Summer of Social Dissent in the EU..."
Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline spoke Friday morning and really impressed me with the breadth of his presentation. This slide has a LOT of implications.
http://images.johnmauldin.com/upload.../050512-05.jpg


John Mauldin
[email protected]

Dear Bruce,
Spain is about to enter a full-scale Crisis.
A few facts about Spain:

* Total Spanish banking loans are equal to 170% of Spanish GDP.

* Troubled loans at Spanish Banks just hit an 18-year high.

* Spanish Banks are drawing a record €316.3 billion from the ECB
(up from €169.2 billion in February).

Things have gotten so bad that Spanish citizens
are pulling their money out of Spain en masse:
€65 billion left the Spanish banking system in
March 2011 alone.

As bad as they are, even these data points don't
do justice to the toxic sewer that is the Spanish
banking system.

Case in point, over HALF of all Spanish
mortgages are owned by Spanish cajas.

If you're unfamiliar with the caja banking
system, let me give you a little background...

Until recently, the caja banking system was
virtually unregulated. Yes, you read that correctly,
until about 2010-2011 there were next no regulations
for these banks (which account for 50% of all
Spanish deposits). They didn't have to reveal their
loan to value ratios, the quality of collateral they
took for making loans... or anything for that matter.

So, with Spain today, we have a totally unregulated
banking system sitting atop HALF of ALL Spanish
mortgages after a housing bubble that makes what
happened in the US look like a small bump.

Spain's housing bubble is the dark blue line below.


The US is the gray one.

https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=35689

Oh, I forgot to mention, the cajas primary lending
market during Spain's housing boom were subprime
and sub-sub prime borrowers.

Put another way, today the entire Spanish banking
system is saturated with toxic mortgage debt on a level
that makes the US in 2008 LOOK GREAT.

If you don't want to take my word for it, have a look
at the Spanish stock market. It's been in a free fall for
over a month as Spain's banking system teeters on the
brink of collapse (remember they're drawing over
€300 BILLION in emergency loands from the ECB.


If you think that chart looks bad, take a look at Spain's
LONG-TERM chart where the market has just broken
a 15 YEAR TRENDLINE signalling that the bully
market is OVER and setting the stage for a horrific
Crash.

https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=35691

This is hands down the ugliest chart out there
today. Spain is telling us point blank that disaster
is looming.

With that in mind, I believe we have at most
a month before Spain drags down the entire
EU. The Spanish economy and banking system
are too large to be bailed out. The IMF and ECB
know this.

Moreover, worldwide banking exposure to
Spain is well over €1 TRILLION. What
impact do you think that might have on the EU
which has an entire banking system that
is leveraged at 26 to 1 (Lehman Brothers
was leveraged at 30 to 1 when it collapsed)?

Heck even Ben Bernanke and others have
issued warnings that Europe could drag down
the US banking system if it crumbles.

Best Regards

Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Long from 1.30 is definitely in the cards if all goes well in Europe this weekend because there will be some short covering. However, a target of 1.36-1.38 is quite optimistic and too forward looking. Also, there is no fundamental support for such a move unless the Fed starts printing again or somehow a miracle appears in Europe. Please explain your rationale behind this call. If it is a technical call, please post a chart showing how you arrived at such an optimistic target.

Thanks.

ya bro,just online..watching the avengers,am online and available for u anytime..remember always use C ya

i used EW for my technical and EURO 2012 and olympic for my big picture.
http://content.screencast.com/users/...05-06_1932.png
u r welcome

My Daily Outlook,

looking a bigger picture,seem like a bull continution pattern - Daily Pennant

We will see next week