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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #28,981
  • May 4, 2012 9:26am May 4, 2012 9:26am
Wow i didnt realize how important that level was. It was just a stop hunt the NFP news, we are going down for sure now it seems.

Note: ive only been trading FX 6 months, any criticism is highly appreciated
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #28,982
  • May 4, 2012 9:33am May 4, 2012 9:33am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Out of shorts at 3150. Euro back to unchanged for the day

edit: that was a mistake
Hint: Does your broker allow you to partially close a position?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,983
  • May 4, 2012 9:34am May 4, 2012 9:34am
too much of leg touching today ... all sales good? not able to buy guess its fear.
  • #28,984
  • May 4, 2012 9:35am May 4, 2012 9:35am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Wow i didnt realize how important that level was. It was just a stop hunt the NFP news, we are going down for sure now it seems.

Note: ive only been trading FX 6 months, any criticism is highly appreciated
Technicals are fantastic for identifying support/resistance, supply/demand etc, but at the end of the day it is the fundamentals (economic, political, psychological) that drive price. Always keep that in mind.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,985
  • May 4, 2012 9:37am May 4, 2012 9:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Unless the number is a huge miss, don't trade the number. Wait and trade the second reaction (Not the knee-jerk)
...and here is the second reaction

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,986
  • May 4, 2012 9:40am May 4, 2012 9:40am
Yeah it was just stupid, missed out on 8 pips trying to get short like 5 pips higher than TP.

Thats what you call overtrading, and especially when the downmove is that strong, that was pointless to do.

Doesn't even want to bounce of 1.3122 right now..
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #28,987
  • May 4, 2012 9:42am May 4, 2012 9:42am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Yeah it was just stupid, missed out on 8 pips trying to get short like 5 pips higher than TP.

Thats what you call overtrading, and especially when the downmove is that strong, that was pointless to do.

Doesn't even want to bounce of 1.3122 right now..
Don't worry. It will bounce, but only like a dead cat.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,988
  • May 4, 2012 9:43am May 4, 2012 9:43am
Quoting rekon67
too much of leg touching today ... all sales good? not able to buy guess its fear.
my contribution for today.
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  • #28,989
  • May 4, 2012 9:46am May 4, 2012 9:46am
dd
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #28,990
  • May 4, 2012 9:46am May 4, 2012 9:46am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Wow i didnt realize how important that level was. It was just a stop hunt the NFP news, we are going down for sure now it seems.

Note: ive only been trading FX 6 months, any criticism is highly appreciated
If it may be of any comfort to you, I did the same mistake as you,(though I exited my short even 2-3 pips higher than you.... so shame on me) - but there will always be new opportunities to go short (or long) ;-) - so don´t be sad!
  • #28,991
  • May 4, 2012 9:47am May 4, 2012 9:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes but a bad NFP will be bad for USD. So if we see an NFP number less than 100K, I expect to see a bit of a USD sell-off. However, serious risk aversion will ensue and some capital will flow back to USD fixed income which should temper the USD losses a bit. The big move on such a risk aversion play will be on the Yen and a great trade for that will be short USD/JPY and/or EUR/JPY
I know the number came in over 100K but what I speculated about the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is still in play with the added bonus of a bearish EUR/USD due to a 100+ number and the upcoming weekend elections.

U/J H1
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E/J H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,992
  • May 4, 2012 9:50am May 4, 2012 9:50am
Quoting berky
If it may be of any comfort to you, I did the same mistake as you,(though I exited my short even 2-3 pips higher than you.... so shame on me) - but there will always be new opportunities to go short (or long) ;-) - so don´t be sad!
Agreed. My favorite saying is...

Quoting PipTrapper
Don't worry about not getting your crumbs. The market bakes a fresh loaf every 4 hours.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,993
  • May 4, 2012 9:53am May 4, 2012 9:53am
Anyone think the 1.3095 will break today?
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #28,994
  • May 4, 2012 9:56am May 4, 2012 9:56am
Quoting Luis Carlos
For we need to come back again 1.318 since 1.315
What a bad count of mine, the retracement had finished at 1.3177 and I was looking a "fifth cats leg". Congrats to everyone who got in @1.317. Now I will wait a pullback to get short, if there is a pullback!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #28,995
  • May 4, 2012 9:57am May 4, 2012 9:57am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Anyone think the 1.3095 will break today?
Anything is possible but volume was low to start and is now dropping.
I think at this point it will be a weekend gap that will break 3095 if one or more of the following three things happen.

1. Angela Merkel's coalition government suffers a setback in the German regional elections
2. Hollande gets elected in France
3. The Greek elections fail to produce a viable coalition government

ADD: On second thoughts, it is quite possible that NY will sell off a bit more before the market closes, but that's a long shot.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,996
  • May 4, 2012 10:01am May 4, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Yesterday I took a short at 1.3177 and I set trailing stop before NFP +10pips which the sucker took it and now still having my pending order at 1.31825....
SIDEWAY in NFP News and Friday... ZIG ZAG mode on, Bro

If Price below 1.3190... will Downward 1.3075
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #28,997
  • May 4, 2012 10:01am May 4, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Luis Carlos
What a bad count of mine, the retracement had finished at 1.3177 and I was looking a "fifth cats leg". Congrats to everyone who got in @1.317. Now I will wait a pullback to get short, if there is a pullback!
Make note of your mistake and keep it in mind for next time. That's how we all learn.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,998
  • May 4, 2012 10:06am May 4, 2012 10:06am
Super Sunday Poses Multiple Threats to Merkel

By Veit Medick

It could be an uncomfortable weekend for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, with three crunch votes taking place on Sunday. Elections in Greece and France could could torpedo her strategy to solve the euro crisis if voters reject pro-austerity candidates, while a state election in Germany may weaken her conservatives domestically.
http://www.spiegel.de/images/image-3...9free-kazg.jpg

Angela Merkel's position as German chancellor is becoming increasingly contradictory. At the federal level, she reigns unchallenged, while her opponents falter. But at the level of Germany's individual states, her power is crumbling and her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is bracing itself for further setbacks. At the European level, meanwhile, she has become a figure of hate for many, as her pet project, the fiscal pact, is increasingly called into question.

It seems that the German chancellor is currently inhabiting three different worlds.
But this weekend, those three worlds will converge, as people both in Germany and abroad go to the polls in three key elections which all take place on Sunday. In the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU's current coalition government with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) is set to crumble, while in France, Merkel's key euro-zone ally Nicolas Sarkozy has cause to fear for his own hold on power in the second round of the French presidential election. At the same time, Greece threatens to descend into instability following its parliamentary elections. It seems likely that Merkel's worlds will no longer remain so neatly divided after this election "super Sunday." Even the staunchest of supporters sense the chancellor may be facing a turning point.

Neck and Neck

Supposedly minor elections such as the one in Schleswig-Holstein have suddenly become important. Polls in the state put the CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) neck and neck, while the FDP, Merkel's coalition partner in the national government, will struggle at the state level to clear the 5 percent hurdle required in order to take seats in parliament.

But things could still turn out well here for Merkel. If the CDU comes out ahead and the FDP manages to stay in the state parliament, it won't cause much of a shake-up in Berlin. But if the FDP loses its seats in the state parliament, the chancellor may feel the effects at the federal level. And things will get rough inside the FDP as well. The FDP's lead candidate in Schleswig-Holstein, Wolfgang Kubicki, has a reputation for firing broadsides at the party leadership in Berlin, whose recent haplessness has cost the FDP support across the country. If the state election result is disappointing, Kubicki is likely to make his displeasure felt.

The CDU is also potentially facing a highly symbolic loss. At the moment, the party still heads up the government in one state more than its main rival, the SPD, governing eight federal states to the SPD's seven. But if things go badly in Schleswig-Holstein, then the CDU, which seems to have held this lead more or less forever, will suddenly find itself at a disadvantage.

With one and a half years to go until the country's next national elections -- and just a week until a crunch election in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia -- Merkel's opponents would do their best to exploit the shift in the balance of power, something that the CDU's strategists know all too well.

Poisoned Darts

Even more important for Merkel, though, is the presidential election in France, a country that may soon be led by a man who has pledged to end Germany's dominance within Europe: François Hollande. The Socialist candidate has been making ominous noises about the European fiscal pact for weeks. He wants to ease the EU's tough austerity policies and has campaigned for common European euro bonds, something that Germany has always opposed. All these positions are poisoned darts aimed at the German chancellor.

Even if Sarkozy pulls off a surprise victory this Sunday, things could get uncomfortable for Merkel. It already seems clear that Sarkozy would behave differently in his dealings with Berlin in the future if he secures a second term. The election campaign has made a different president out of Sarkozy, one who is more nationalistic, more radical and less predictable.

For example, Sarkozy originally asked Merkel for help in his campaign, and the German chancellor agreed to the unusual step of making joint appearances with her French counterpart. But then Sarkozy decided he no longer wanted her help when it became clear that his close ties with the German leader weren't helping his poll ratings -- much to Merkel's annoyance.

Of course the ties between Germany and France are strong enough to withstand a little temporary political tension. But it would cause political problems for Merkel domestically to have Paris standing in her way on important issues. If Hollande wins, it will change the tone of the EU summits that have so far tended to furnish pleasing photo ops and positive headlines for the German chancellor. It may also introduce a new dynamic in Berlin, where Merkel might find herself having to wrangle with the political opposition after all. At least, it seems possible that the SPD, a party currently in the grips of some sort of lethargy, would draw new energy from a victory for its center-left political allies in Paris.

Still, the chancellor's camp is showing a cautious optimism. Merkel's supporters admit that a Socialist victory in France could certainly make things more difficult for them. They also expect that Hollande will remain in feisty campaign mode even beyond this Sunday, since elections to France's National Assembly come just a few weeks later. In private, though, the CDU is hoping Hollande will be forced to adjust to reality quickly. Once he's at the negotiating table and having to make decisions, they say, Hollande will revise his view of the situation. And he'll soon feel the pressure of the markets, they add.

Uncertain Outcome in Greece

Things may indeed turn out that way. But France is not the only problem that may confront Merkel on the European level. Greece, too, may cause trouble. Between the current worrying situation in Spain and the small upgrade that credit rating agencies have given Greece, politicians seem to be forgetting that a political time bomb is still ticking away in Athens. Give the current tense mood in the country, with both the far right and far left having fuelled anti-EU sentiment in recent months, it's difficult to predict how Sunday's parliamentary elections will turn out.

From Merkel's perspective, one result would be particularly dangerous: If Greece elects a majority of euroskeptic parliamentarians who oppose austerity measures, the country's painstakingly negotiated bailout packages would once again be up for discussion. If Greece did choose in the end to reverse its austerity measures, and perhaps even to leave the euro zone, the EU's entire crisis-management approach would be back at square one.
Not even a grand coalition between the center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) and the conservative New Democracy would really allow Merkel to breathe a sigh of relief. Such an alliance is the most likely outcome, and also, relatively speaking, the most stabile option, given the current situation, but it would bring New Democracy's leader Antonis Samaras to the table in Brussels, possibly even as Greece's prime minister. Although Samaras, during the current election campaign, has pledged his commitment to the austerity measures that Athens agreed upon with the EU in return for financial aid, it worries other EU conservatives that he has taken precisely the opposite position at times in the past.

That erratic behavior poses a danger for Greece and the EU -- and for the German chancellor as well.

Translated from the German by Ella Ornstein
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28,999
  • May 4, 2012 10:08am May 4, 2012 10:08am
Quoting rekon67
my contribution for today.
Nice shorts bro
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #29,000
  • May 4, 2012 10:11am May 4, 2012 10:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Make note of your mistake and keep it in mind for next time. That's how we all learn.
thank you man!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
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