http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120504164855/
Dollar was somewhat under mild pressure recently, most notably against yen, as the weaker than expected Q1 GDP data revived some speculations of QE3 from Fed. In addition, initial jobless claimed jumped above 380k level in first week of April and stayed above for three consecutive week till the week of April 28. The data also triggered some concern on momentum of the job market recovery. The non-farm payroll data for April will be more important than usual as other recent data turned mixed.
Markets are expecting NFP to show 165k growth in April with unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. Leading indicators to NFP were mixed ADP private report at 119k only. Four week moving average of initial claims rose from 363k to 383k. The employment component of ISM non-manufacturing dropped from 56.7 to 54.2. though, the employment component of ISM manufacturing rose from 56.1 to 57.3. So after all, NFP is unlikely to post some strong upside surprise but would likely be decent at around 150k level at least. Though, the major surprise factor would be in whether March's number would be revised up from the dismal 120k.
France and Greece will hold elections this weekend on May 6. In France, Socialist challenger Hollande continues to lead presidential incumber Sarkozy in polls and is favored to win the election. There are two major questions should Hollande wins. Firstly, he's been clear that he will push to re-negotiate the fiscal compact in EU. Secondly, the Franco-German leadership in Eurozone could be changed and Merkel could be isolated in her campaign for austerity. Meanwhile, there are much uncertainties in Greece election. It's not even doubtful whether the dominant New Democracy and Pasok could win majority of 300 seats in Parliament between them. And Greece could have another elections by year end. Meanwhile, a stable government is needed by June to push through the austerity measures as requirement of the bailout package.
Kno's Comments:
Perception and Reality
This thread is a good example of PERCEPTION and Reality.
Imagine that we are in our own Private World here. There can be no question that based on fundamentals and technicals and the broad Knowledge Base in this thread that our PERCEPTION is better focused than the PERCEPTION outside of this thread. That of course is my view and I only speak for myself.
A majority of all forex traders use technicals to make their trading decisions. We know most Retail Traders lose money trading and that, for many reasons.
As always Money Flow because of changing FUNDAMENTALS change the direction of the charts.
Anything that changes PERCEPTION brings Fundamentals or the value of the various Asset Classes more in line with NEW Assumptions on their value. The values are changing everyday with new information or new perceptions.
In the absence of any NEW News, EUR/USD will be moved up or down by the North America Retail Traders joining in around 6:00 AM EST.
When Data (News) comes out at 8:30 AM we have NEW news. The markets react to this news and HOW the news is viewed. Then we arrive at 9:30 AM EST and North America Equities Markets OPEN and then MONEY FLOW has more influence on prices. Once Option Expiry and New News (Data) is out at 10:00 AM EST we have again a change of PERCEPTIONS and values. Then we head to the CLOSE of Europe Equity Markets at 11:30 AM and there is profit taking and short covering and then there is only North America open until 4:00 PM EST and the Daily Rollover at 5:00 PM EST and the START of another Daily Market as we head to Asia at 7:00 PM EST.
I would be glad to answer any questions on my topic. There is no doubt that understanding what I share here would improve your results. Please keep in mind that this thread gives traders an edge because of the excellent Resources that PipTrapper has made available here and so watching what the other Retail Traders do outside of this thread in most instances can bring our overall understanding up to a better level.
Good Morning, Good Trading and have a Great Weekend. This is Kentucky Derby Weekend and Our Race starts at 8:30 AM EST.
My Bet is on NFP to finish First.
Dollar was somewhat under mild pressure recently, most notably against yen, as the weaker than expected Q1 GDP data revived some speculations of QE3 from Fed. In addition, initial jobless claimed jumped above 380k level in first week of April and stayed above for three consecutive week till the week of April 28. The data also triggered some concern on momentum of the job market recovery. The non-farm payroll data for April will be more important than usual as other recent data turned mixed.
Markets are expecting NFP to show 165k growth in April with unemployment rate unchanged at 8.2%. Leading indicators to NFP were mixed ADP private report at 119k only. Four week moving average of initial claims rose from 363k to 383k. The employment component of ISM non-manufacturing dropped from 56.7 to 54.2. though, the employment component of ISM manufacturing rose from 56.1 to 57.3. So after all, NFP is unlikely to post some strong upside surprise but would likely be decent at around 150k level at least. Though, the major surprise factor would be in whether March's number would be revised up from the dismal 120k.
France and Greece will hold elections this weekend on May 6. In France, Socialist challenger Hollande continues to lead presidential incumber Sarkozy in polls and is favored to win the election. There are two major questions should Hollande wins. Firstly, he's been clear that he will push to re-negotiate the fiscal compact in EU. Secondly, the Franco-German leadership in Eurozone could be changed and Merkel could be isolated in her campaign for austerity. Meanwhile, there are much uncertainties in Greece election. It's not even doubtful whether the dominant New Democracy and Pasok could win majority of 300 seats in Parliament between them. And Greece could have another elections by year end. Meanwhile, a stable government is needed by June to push through the austerity measures as requirement of the bailout package.
Kno's Comments:
Perception and Reality
This thread is a good example of PERCEPTION and Reality.
Imagine that we are in our own Private World here. There can be no question that based on fundamentals and technicals and the broad Knowledge Base in this thread that our PERCEPTION is better focused than the PERCEPTION outside of this thread. That of course is my view and I only speak for myself.
A majority of all forex traders use technicals to make their trading decisions. We know most Retail Traders lose money trading and that, for many reasons.
As always Money Flow because of changing FUNDAMENTALS change the direction of the charts.
Anything that changes PERCEPTION brings Fundamentals or the value of the various Asset Classes more in line with NEW Assumptions on their value. The values are changing everyday with new information or new perceptions.
In the absence of any NEW News, EUR/USD will be moved up or down by the North America Retail Traders joining in around 6:00 AM EST.
When Data (News) comes out at 8:30 AM we have NEW news. The markets react to this news and HOW the news is viewed. Then we arrive at 9:30 AM EST and North America Equities Markets OPEN and then MONEY FLOW has more influence on prices. Once Option Expiry and New News (Data) is out at 10:00 AM EST we have again a change of PERCEPTIONS and values. Then we head to the CLOSE of Europe Equity Markets at 11:30 AM and there is profit taking and short covering and then there is only North America open until 4:00 PM EST and the Daily Rollover at 5:00 PM EST and the START of another Daily Market as we head to Asia at 7:00 PM EST.
I would be glad to answer any questions on my topic. There is no doubt that understanding what I share here would improve your results. Please keep in mind that this thread gives traders an edge because of the excellent Resources that PipTrapper has made available here and so watching what the other Retail Traders do outside of this thread in most instances can bring our overall understanding up to a better level.
Good Morning, Good Trading and have a Great Weekend. This is Kentucky Derby Weekend and Our Race starts at 8:30 AM EST.
My Bet is on NFP to finish First.
